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SBLKStar Bulk Carriers Corp.Buy Wait6.8·$28.77
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Star Bulk Carriers has delivered 4 consecutive earnings beats with a 36% average positive surprise, holds a perfect Piotroski financial health score of 9/9, and converts 162% of net income into free cash flow, but weak price momentum and price near the analyst target limit immediate upside.

Thesis pillars

  • Perfect Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
  • Exceptional Cash Conversion→Stable
  • Strong Revenue Growth Rate→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Star Bulk Carriers Corp. (SBLK) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitValueGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Industrials · Marine Shipping

Wait for pullback to $25.09. At $28.77 the A.R:R is 0.7:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $25.09 (Ma200 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 4.1%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Star Bulk Carriers Corp. provides international seaborne transportation services for dry bulk commodities. The company transports major bulk cargoes, including iron ore, minerals, and grain, as well as minor bulks such as bauxite, fertilizers, and steel products. The company... Read more

$28.77+4.1% A.UpsideScore 6.8/10#5 of 20 Marine Shipping
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield4.91%
IncomeYield6.31%(5y avg 6.49%)Payout40.39%sustainable
Entry $25.09(Ma200 Sticky)Stop $23.37Target $29.96(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.7:1
Analyst target$34.44+19.7%5 analysts
$29.96our TP
$28.77price
$34.44mean
$38

Wait for pullback to $25.09. At $28.77 the A.R:R is 0.7:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $25.09 (Ma200 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 4.1%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. V9 Gate blocked: Momentum 3.0 < 4.5 minimum; R/R 0.7x at spot < 1.5 minimum. Wait for improvement. Score 6.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 35d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear, sector concentration cap sector=industrials 1/10). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Nov 18, 202635d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Thin upside margin: 4.1%
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.7
P/E (Fwd)8.5
Mkt Cap$3.5B
EV/EBITDA8.0
Profit Mgn23.9%
ROE11.7%
Rev Growth44.5%
Beta0.76
Dividend6.31%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.21bullish
IV64%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.8
Obv
1.0
Volume
3.7
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.0<4.5A.R:R 0.7 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 35d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSECTOR CONCENTRATION CAP sector=Industrials 1/10Suitability: Aggressive
RSI
41 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $28.30Resistance $32.66

Price Targets

$23
$25
$30
A.Upside+4.1%
A.R:R0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.6%
Max %1.3%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum 3.0 < 4.5 minimum
! R/R 0.7x at spot < 1.5 minimum
! momentum at 3.0 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-18 (35d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SBLK stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $25.09. At $28.77 the A.R:R is 0.7:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $25.09 (Ma200 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 4.1%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. V9 Gate blocked: Momentum 3.0 < 4.5 minimum; R/R 0.7x at spot < 1.5 minimum. Wait for improvement. Target $29.96 (+4.1%), stop $23.37 (−23.1%), A.R:R 0.7:1. Score 6.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SBLK stock price target?

Take-profit target: $29.96 (+4.1% upside). Target $29.96 (+4.1%), stop $23.37 (−23.1%), A.R:R 0.7:1. Stop-loss: $23.37.

What are the risks of investing in SBLK?

Thin upside margin: 4.1%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Negative momentum.

Is SBLK overvalued or undervalued?

Star Bulk Carriers Corp. trades at a P/E of 11.7 (forward 8.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about SBLK?

13 analysts cover SBLK with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $34.

What does Star Bulk Carriers Corp. do?Star Bulk Carriers Corp. provides international seaborne transportation services for dry bulk commodities. The company...

Star Bulk Carriers Corp. provides international seaborne transportation services for dry bulk commodities. The company transports major bulk cargoes, including iron ore, minerals, and grain, as well as minor bulks such as bauxite, fertilizers, and steel products. The company owns a fleet of dry bulk vessels consisting of Newcastlemax, Capesize, Post Panamax, Kamsarmax, Ultramax, and Supramax vessels. The company has a strategic partnership with Hermes World Maritime S.A. Star Bulk Carriers Corp. was incorporated in 2006 and is based in Marousi, Greece.

Related stocks: ASC (Ardmore Shipping Corporation) · NMM (Navios Maritime Partners LP) · HAFN (Hafnia Limited) · HSHP (Himalaya Shipping Ltd.) · SB (Safe Bulkers, Inc)
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