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Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Resorts & Casinos

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $49.92 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Geographic: Macao and Singapore; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Las Vegas Sands operates integrated resorts featuring gaming, luxury hotels, retail malls, and MICE facilities exclusively in Macao (via 74.80% ownership of Sands China) and Singapore (Marina Bay Sands). Macao contributed 44% and Singapore 56% of total adjusted property EBITDA... Read more

$49.92+25.4% A.UpsideScore 6.8/10#1 of 12 Resorts & Casinos
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield4.88%
IncomeYield2.19%(5y avg 4.75%)Payout38.75%sustainable
Stop $48.27Target $62.61(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 4.4:1
Analyst target$69.56+39.3%19 analysts
$62.61our TP
$49.92price
$69.56mean
$79

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $49.92 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Geographic: Macao and Singapore; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 34, MACD bearish. Score 6.8/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 64d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Las Vegas Sands Corp.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.4 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Macao and Singapore
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Leverage penalty (D/E 9.8): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)18.5
P/E (Fwd)13.6
Mkt Cap$33.3B
EV/EBITDA9.5
Profit Mgn13.4%
ROE90.5%
Rev Growth25.3%
Beta0.84
Dividend2.19%
Rating analysts25

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.74neutral
IV53%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicMacao and Singapore
    10-K Item 1A: 'We are primarily dependent upon our Asia properties for all of our cash flow. Given our operations are conducted primarily at properties in Macao and Singapore...we are subject to greater risk than if we were more diversified'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-13Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Robert G. Goldstein (Chairman/CEO) to transition to senior advisor effective March 1, 2026. Patrick Dumont (President/COO) appointed successor Chairman, CEO, President and Treasurer effective March 1, 2026. Clean handoff with named successor.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-05Item 5.02LOW
    Company entered employment agreements with Dumont (Chairman/CEO), Hyzak (EVP/CFO), and Hudson (EVP/GC) effective March 2, 2026, each with 5-year terms through March 2031. Compensatory arrangement disclosures.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Volume
2.9
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.7%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 1.9<4.5A.R:R 4.4 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 64d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
34 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $49.76Resistance $57.59

Price Targets

$48
$63
A.Upside+25.4%
A.R:R4.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (64d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LVS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $49.92 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Geographic: Macao and Singapore; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 34, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $48.27. Score 6.8/10, high confidence.

What is the LVS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $62.61 (+25.4% upside). Prior stop was $48.27. Stop-loss: $48.27.

What are the risks of investing in LVS?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Macao and Singapore; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Leverage penalty (D/E 9.8): -1.5.

Is LVS overvalued or undervalued?

Las Vegas Sands Corp. trades at a P/E of 18.5 (forward 13.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about LVS?

25 analysts cover LVS with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $70.

What does Las Vegas Sands Corp. do?Las Vegas Sands operates integrated resorts featuring gaming, luxury hotels, retail malls, and MICE facilities...

Las Vegas Sands operates integrated resorts featuring gaming, luxury hotels, retail malls, and MICE facilities exclusively in Macao (via 74.80% ownership of Sands China) and Singapore (Marina Bay Sands). Macao contributed 44% and Singapore 56% of total adjusted property EBITDA in 2025; the company holds $15.78 billion in debt outstanding.

Related stocks: RRR (Red Rock Resorts, Inc.) · HGV (Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.) · CZR (Caesars Entertainment, Inc.) · WYNN (Wynn Resorts, Limited) · BYD (Boyd Gaming Corporation)