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Intuitive Machines, Inc. (LUNR) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $25.74: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 20%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.45; Below-average business quality.

Intuitive Machines is a space infrastructure company that builds spacecraft, connects space-based networks, and operates infrastructure for civil, national security, and commercial customers across LEO, GEO, cislunar, and deep space. Revenue comes primarily from US government... Read more

$25.74+18.6% A.UpsideScore 3.6/10#46 of 46 Aerospace & Defense
Stop $23.95Target $30.53(resistance)A.R:R -1.3:1
Analyst target$23.89-7.2%9 analysts
$30.53our TP
$25.74price
$23.89mean
$11
$35

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $25.74: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 20%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.45; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 57 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 3.6/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.50, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: customer concentration
Concentration risk — Supplier: single launch provider for our lunar missions
Target reached (-19.3% upside)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)115.3
Mkt Cap$4.0B
EV/EBITDA-56.0
Profit Mgn-39.7%
ROE-102.9%
Rev Growth-18.1%
Beta1.31
DividendNone
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Options Flow

P/C1.45bearish
IV110%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomercustomer concentration
    10-K Item 1A: 'Customer concentration creates risks for our business'
  • HIGHSuppliersingle launch provider for our lunar missions
    10-K Item 1A: 'We rely on a limited number of suppliers for certain materials and supplied components, including a single launch provider for our lunar missions'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-11Item 5.02LOW
    Board approved cash transaction bonuses on February 5, 2026 for CEO Stephen Altemus (512,750) and CFO Peter McGrath (247,500) in recognition of the KinetX and Lanteris acquisitions. No departure or appointment disclosed.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
0.4
Value Rank
1.1

Unprofitable operations — net margin -39.7%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Piotroski F
3.3
Moat
5.0
Current Ratio
8.0
Cash-burning: FCF -9% of revenueNo competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9Quality concerns

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ps
0.0
Forward Pe
1.0
Analyst Target
3.0
Peg Ratio
7.7
Forward P/E: 115.3xPEG: 0.89Expensive valuation

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
8.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MEarnings in 11 days
GatesA.R:R -1.3=NEGATIVEMomentum 4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 11d<=14d (soft)Momentum 4.9>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.50SEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
57 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $19.21Resistance $31.15

Price Targets

$24
$31
A.Upside+18.6%
A.R:R-1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-19.3% upside)
! Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-12 (11d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LUNR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $25.74: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 20%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.45; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 57 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $23.95. Score 3.6/10, high confidence.

What is the LUNR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $30.53 (+18.6% upside). Prior stop was $23.95. Stop-loss: $23.95.

What are the risks of investing in LUNR?

Concentration risk — Customer: customer concentration; Concentration risk — Supplier: single launch provider for our lunar missions; Target reached (-19.3% upside).

Is LUNR overvalued or undervalued?

Intuitive Machines, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 115.3). TrendMatrix value score: 2.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about LUNR?

16 analysts cover LUNR with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $24.

What does Intuitive Machines, Inc. do?Intuitive Machines is a space infrastructure company that builds spacecraft, connects space-based networks, and...

Intuitive Machines is a space infrastructure company that builds spacecraft, connects space-based networks, and operates infrastructure for civil, national security, and commercial customers across LEO, GEO, cislunar, and deep space. Revenue comes primarily from US government contracts (NASA, SDA) and commercial GEO satellite manufacturing via Lanteris, acquired January 2026.

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