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Intuitive Machines, Inc. (LUNR) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $33.44: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 21%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation.

Intuitive Machines is a space infrastructure company building spacecraft, satellites (via Lanteris acquisition), and cislunar networks, with revenue primarily from U.S. government contracts including NASA CLPS lunar delivery, Near Space Network data relay, and the Lunar Terrain... Read more

$33.44+12.5% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#36 of 47 Aerospace & Defense
QualityF-score3 / 9FCF yield-0.60%
Stop $31.24Target $37.78(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1
Analyst target$34.78+4.0%9 analysts
$37.78our TP
$33.44price
$34.78mean
$11
$50

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $33.44: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 21%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.70, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Intuitive Machines, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: NASA and U.S. government
Concentration risk — Supplier: single launch provider for lunar missions
Target reached (-9.9% upside)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-319.9
Mkt Cap$5.4B
EV/EBITDA-82.8
Profit Mgn-32.7%
ROE-30.3%
Rev Growth198.7%
Beta1.47
DividendNone
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Options Flow

P/C1.03bearish
IV132%elevated
Max Pain$13-61.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerNASA and U.S. government
    10-K Item 1A: 'We depend significantly on U.S. government contracts, which often are only partially funded, subject to immediate termination, and heavily regulated and audited'
  • HIGHSuppliersingle launch provider for lunar missions
    10-K Item 1A: 'We rely on a limited number of suppliers for certain materials and supplied components, including a single launch provider for our lunar missions'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-11Item 5.02LOW
    Board approved cash transaction bonuses to CEO Stephen Altemus ($512,750) and CFO Peter McGrath ($247,500) in recognition of KinetX and Lanteris acquisitions. Routine compensatory arrangement.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

5 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Unprofitable operations — net margin -32.7%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Piotroski F
3.3
Current Ratio
4.6
Moat
5.0
Cash-burning: FCF -10% of revenueNo competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9Quality concerns

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ps
0.0
Analyst Target
4.0
Expensive valuation
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
1.1
Quality Rank
1.3
Growth Rank
9.8
Industry growth leader

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
1.1
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
8.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/2M

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
1.9
Gap
3.0
Support Resistance
3.1
52w Position
7.4
Extreme gap up (7.8%) - may pull back
GatesA.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEMomentum 8.0>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.70EARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
71 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $22.75Resistance $38.55

Price Targets

$31
$38
A.Upside+13.0%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-9.9% upside)
! Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LUNR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $33.44: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 21%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $31.24. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the LUNR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $37.78 (+12.5% upside). Prior stop was $31.24. Stop-loss: $31.24.

What are the risks of investing in LUNR?

Concentration risk — Customer: NASA and U.S. government; Concentration risk — Supplier: single launch provider for lunar missions; Target reached (-9.9% upside).

Is LUNR overvalued or undervalued?

Intuitive Machines, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -319.9). TrendMatrix value score: 2.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about LUNR?

16 analysts cover LUNR with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $35.

What does Intuitive Machines, Inc. do?Intuitive Machines is a space infrastructure company building spacecraft, satellites (via Lanteris acquisition), and...

Intuitive Machines is a space infrastructure company building spacecraft, satellites (via Lanteris acquisition), and cislunar networks, with revenue primarily from U.S. government contracts including NASA CLPS lunar delivery, Near Space Network data relay, and the Lunar Terrain Vehicle program. The company acquired KinetX (navigation) in October 2025 and Lanteris (GEO satellite manufacturing) in January 2026, reaching approximately 1,695 combined employees.

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