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LSPDLightspeed Commerce Inc. SubordSell5.5·$10.98
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Lightspeed Commerce offers a statistically cheap forward multiple and accumulating volume, but below-floor business quality, three earnings misses in the last four quarters averaging a negative 22% surprise, and a confirmed price downtrend make the current setup unsuitable for new exposure regardless of the apparent valuation discount.

Thesis pillars

  • Quality Below Investable Floor→Stable
  • Persistent Earnings Miss Pattern↓Deteriorating
  • Cheap Valuation Unearned By Fundamentals→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026· older than 90 days

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Lightspeed Commerce Inc. Subord (LSPD) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

SellValueGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Earnings in 1 day (2026-11-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $10.98: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 5.73; Below-average business quality.

Lightspeed Commerce Inc. engages in sale of cloud-based software subscriptions and payments solutions for single and multi-location retailers, restaurants, golf course operators, and other businesses. It offers a cloud-based commerce platform that connects suppliers, merchants,... Read more

$10.98-13.5% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#76 of 116 Software - Application
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield3.10%
Stop $10.21Analyst target $9.50(reached)A.R:R -1.6:1
Analyst consensus$10.92-0.5%13 analysts with price targets
$10.98price
$10.92mean
$10
$13

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $10.98: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 5.73; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 1d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated Oct 23, 2026

Recent Developments — Lightspeed Commerce Inc. Subord

Latest item Oct 23, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-04T11:54:38Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 5, 20261d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-13.5% upside)
Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—
P/E (Fwd)11.7
Mkt Cap$1.4B
EV/EBITDA-29.0
Profit Mgn-7.8%
ROE-6.7%
Rev Growth5.8%
Beta1.65
DividendNone
Analysts with ratings17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C5.73bearish
IV87%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Unprofitable operations — net margin -7.8%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
4.2
Gross Margin
4.6
Moat
5.9
Piotroski F
8.9
Current Ratio
9.5
FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 4%, FCF yield 3.1%)Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
GatesA.R:R -1.6=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 1d<=7dMomentum 5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.0>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
61 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $10.03Resistance $11.34

Price Targets

A.Upside-13.5%
A.R:R-1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-13.5% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-05 (1d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LSPD stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $10.98: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 5.73; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $10.21. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the LSPD stock price target?

Analyst target $9.50 reached (−13.5% from $10.98); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $10.21. Stop-loss: $10.21.

What are the risks of investing in LSPD?

Target reached (-13.5% upside); Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0).

Is LSPD overvalued or undervalued?

Lightspeed Commerce Inc. Subord trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 11.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about LSPD?

17 analysts rate LSPD, with a consensus score of 3.7/5. 13 analysts publish price targets averaging $11.

What does Lightspeed Commerce Inc. Subord do?Lightspeed Commerce Inc. engages in sale of cloud-based software subscriptions and payments solutions for single and...

Lightspeed Commerce Inc. engages in sale of cloud-based software subscriptions and payments solutions for single and multi-location retailers, restaurants, golf course operators, and other businesses. It offers a cloud-based commerce platform that connects suppliers, merchants, and consumers to enable omnichannel experiences and engage with consumers, manage operations, accept payments, and grow business. The company's cloud platform is designed around interrelated elements, such as omni-channel consumer experience, a comprehensive back-office operations management suite to improve customers' efficiency and insight, and the facilitation of payments. Its platform functionalities include full omni-channel capabilities, point of sale (POS), product and menu management, kitchen display system (KDS), employee and inventory management comprising ordering, analytics and reporting, multi-location connectivity, order anywhere and curbside pickup functionality, loyalty, and customer management solutions. The company also offers tailored financial solutions, such as Lightspeed Payments and Lightspeed Capital; Lightspeed Restaurant, a unified hospitality commerce offering; Lightspeed Retail, a retail commerce offering; Lightspeed eCommerce; Lightspeed Wholesale; and Lightspeed NuORDER integration to order from various brands. In addition, it sells hardware, including tablets, customer-facing displays, KDS screens, receipt printers, networking hardware, cash drawers, payment terminals, servers, stands, bar-code scanners, and an assortment of accessories, as well as provide installation and implementation services. The company was formerly known as Lightspeed POS Inc. and changed its name to Lightspeed Commerce Inc. in August 2021. Lightspeed Commerce Inc. was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Montreal, Canada.

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