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LIONLionsgate Studios CorpSell4.7·$12.72
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

A recent analyst-noted news catalyst and a single strong earnings beat follow three consecutive quarters of misses, a Piotroski F-Score of zero out of nine, and a forward multiple of 35.9 times — the quality profile does not support initiating a position, and the current price offers only 2.4% headroom to the near-term resistance target with an unfavorable reward-to-risk ratio.

Thesis pillars

  • Persistent Earnings Miss Pattern→Stable
  • Quality At Minimum Floor→Stable
  • Analyst Sentiment Catalyst↓Deteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed May 27, 2026· older than 90 days

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Lionsgate Studios Corp (LION) Stock Analysis

Momentum Cont setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Unknown · Unknown

Earnings today — results expected after close (2026-11-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.72: Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.54; Below-average business quality.

Lionsgate Studios is a standalone, pure-play content company combining motion picture and television production and distribution, the 3 Arts Entertainment talent management business, and a library of more than 20,000 film and television titles. For the fiscal year ended March... Read more

$12.72+3.2% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10Peer score 5.0/10 · 10 Unknown
QualityF-score0 / 9FCF yield—
Stop $11.83Analyst target $13.12(−13% haircut)A.R:R 0.2:1
Analyst consensus$15.08+18.6%12 analysts with price targets
$13.12Analyst target
$12.72price
$15.08mean
$9
$20

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.72: Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.54; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Lionsgate Studios Corp

About Lionsgate Studios Corp

Lionsgate Studios generated 60.8% of its consolidated revenue from Motion Picture and 39.2% from Television Production for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026, drawing on a library of more than 20,000 film and television titles and the 3 Arts Entertainment talent management business. The company released 24 films theatrically in the United States during fiscal 2026 and operates 52 global FAST (free ad-supported streaming television) channels, following its separation from Starz.

Within Motion Picture, Home Entertainment generates the largest share of segment revenue at 44.1%, ahead of International (28.3%), Television (14.0%), Theatrical (10.9%) and Other (2.7%); within Television Production, domestic Television licensing leads at 49.5%, followed by International (25.1%), Home Entertainment (16.7%) and Other (8.7%). Lionsgate licenses content to streaming and linear partners including Netflix, Amazon Prime Video, Hulu, HBO Max and Disney's networks, while physical disc distribution and fulfillment is substantially licensed to Sony Pictures Home Entertainment. The company also holds a 43% equity interest in theatrical partner Roadside Attractions and produces, syndicates and distributes more than 75 television shows across more than 40 networks through its Lionsgate Television unit.

Show full overview

Lionsgate's physical home entertainment business runs through a single external partner: packaged-media distribution and fulfillment is substantially licensed to Sony Pictures Home Entertainment, even though Home Entertainment is the single largest revenue line within the Motion Picture segment at 44.1% of segment revenue. That pairing means a disruption to, or renegotiation of, the Sony relationship would touch the segment's largest revenue category directly, layered on top of the concentration risk already embedded in a business where Motion Picture alone supplies 60.8% of consolidated revenue.

See also: Unknown · Unknown

From Lionsgate Studios Corp's most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 3, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated Oct 29, 2026

Recent Developments — Lionsgate Studios Corp

Latest item Oct 29, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T12:04:09Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 5, 2026Earnings today — results expected after close· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Motion Picture segment (60.8%)
Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 8.9), Material insider selling (69 sells, 0.64% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—
P/E (Fwd)26.1
Mkt Cap$3.8B
EV/EBITDA—
Profit Mgn—
ROE—
Rev Growth—
Beta—
DividendNone
Analysts with ratings20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F0/9

Options Flow

P/C1.54bearish
IV94%elevated
Max Pain$7-45.0% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductMotion Picture segment61%
    10-K Item 1: 'contributions to the Company's consolidated revenues from its reportable segments included Motion Picture, 60.8% and Television Production, 39.2%.'
  • MEDIUMProductHome Entertainment (Motion Picture segment)44%
    10-K Item 1: 'Home Entertainment, 44.1%;'
  • MEDIUMProductTelevision (Television Production segment)50%
    10-K Item 1: 'Television, 49.5%;'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-15Item 5.02LOW
    On April 13, 2026, Lionsgate's Compensation Committee amended CEO Jon Feltheimer's employment agreement, extending its term two years to July 31, 2031 and granting options for 4,500,000 shares plus 666,667 RSUs. Routine retention/compensation arrangement, not a departure.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Risk profile below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Implied Vol
0.0
Volatility
0.7
Max Pain Risk
3.0
Put Call
3.1
Elevated put/call: 1.54High IV: 94%Above max pain $7Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Piotroski F
0.0
Moat
5.0
Weak Piotroski F-Score: 0/9Quality concerns
Low model confidence on this dimension (29%).

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
1.7
Bollinger
2.2
52w Position
5.2
GatesA.R:R 0.2 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 0d<=7dMomentum 4.7<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 4.7>=4.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARMomentum ContSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
67 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $10.54Resistance $13.17

Price Targets

$12
$13
A.Upside+3.2%
A.R:R0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 8.9), Material insider selling (69 sells, 0.64% of cap)
! asymmetry at 0.2 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-05 (Earnings today — results expected after close)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LION stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.72: Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.54; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $11.83. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the LION stock price target?

Analyst target: $13.12 (+3.2% upside). Prior stop was $11.83. Stop-loss: $11.83.

What are the risks of investing in LION?

Concentration risk — Product: Motion Picture segment (60.8%); Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 8.9), Material insider selling (69 sells, 0.64% of cap).

Is LION overvalued or undervalued?

Lionsgate Studios Corp trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 26.1). TrendMatrix value score: 4.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about LION?

20 analysts rate LION, with a consensus score of 3.9/5. 12 analysts publish price targets averaging $15.

What does Lionsgate Studios Corp do?Lionsgate Studios is a standalone, pure-play content company combining motion picture and television production and...

Lionsgate Studios is a standalone, pure-play content company combining motion picture and television production and distribution, the 3 Arts Entertainment talent management business, and a library of more than 20,000 film and television titles. For the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026, the Motion Picture segment generated 60.8% of consolidated revenue and Television Production 39.2%, following the company's separation from Starz.

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