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Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. (TCBI) Stock Analysis

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $96.81, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.5).

Texas Capital Bancshares is a Texas-headquartered financial services firm operating through Texas Capital Bank (a Texas state-chartered Federal Reserve member bank) and Texas Capital Securities, serving commercial businesses, entrepreneurs, and professionals in Austin, Dallas,... Read more

$96.81+5.9% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#32 of 142 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield—
IncomeYield0.82%Payout0.00%sustainable
Stop $91.77Target $102.54(resistance)A.R:R -0.6:1
Analyst target$107.69+11.2%13 analysts
$102.54our TP
$96.81price
$107.69mean
$116

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $96.81, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.5). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 57d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Val7.9Qual5.5Grw8.3Mom2.5Sent5.6Ins6.5Peer5.0Tech7.7Risk5.16.2OVERALL

Recent Developments — Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc.

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.5)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.1
P/E (Fwd)11.7
Mkt Cap$4.3B
EV/EBITDA—
Profit Mgn28.7%
ROE10.1%
Rev Growth16.9%
Beta0.69
Dividend0.82%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C3.18bearish
IV39%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicTexas
    10-K Item 1A: 'Although more than 50% of the Company's loan exposure is outside of Texas and more than 50% of its deposits are sourced outside of Texas, the Texas concentration remains significant compared to peer banks.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-23Item 5.02LOW
    John Cummings (Managing Director and Chief Administrative Officer) named Chief Operating Officer effective April 16, 2026. Internal promotion; no mention of replacement for CAO role. No reason cited for the change.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
2.2
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 2.5<4.5A.R:R -0.6=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 57d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
45 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $94.06Resistance $104.63

Price Targets

$92
$103
A.Upside+5.9%
A.R:R-0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-3.2% upside)
! Momentum score 2.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-16 (57d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TCBI stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $96.81, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.5). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $102.54 (+5.9%), stop $91.77 (−5.5%), A.R:R -0.6:1. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TCBI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $102.54 (+5.9% upside). Target $102.54 (+5.9%), stop $91.77 (−5.5%), A.R:R -0.6:1. Stop-loss: $91.77.

What are the risks of investing in TCBI?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.5); Negative momentum.

Is TCBI overvalued or undervalued?

Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. trades at a P/E of 13.1 (forward 11.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about TCBI?

19 analysts cover TCBI with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $108.

What does Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. do?Texas Capital Bancshares is a Texas-headquartered financial services firm operating through Texas Capital Bank (a Texas...

Texas Capital Bancshares is a Texas-headquartered financial services firm operating through Texas Capital Bank (a Texas state-chartered Federal Reserve member bank) and Texas Capital Securities, serving commercial businesses, entrepreneurs, and professionals in Austin, Dallas, Fort Worth, Houston, and San Antonio. As of December 31, 2025, the Company had 1,785 employees with majority Texas-based operations.

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