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Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. (TCBI) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $100.20, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Texas Capital Bancshares is a Dallas-headquartered full-service financial services firm operating through Texas Capital Bank (Texas state-chartered) and Texas Capital Securities (broker-dealer). It serves businesses, entrepreneurs, and individuals with offices in Austin, Dallas,... Read more

$100.20+4.5% A.UpsideScore 6.4/10#26 of 142 Banks - Regional
Stop $93.98Target $104.68(resistance)A.R:R -1.1:1
Analyst target$107.38+7.2%13 analysts
$104.68our TP
$100.20price
$107.38mean
$96
$116

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $100.20, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.40, earnings proximity 76d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Val7.9Qual5.4Grw8.3Mom4.3Sent5.4Ins6.5Peer5.1Tech6.5Risk5.16.4OVERALL

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.3
P/E (Fwd)11.7
Mkt Cap$4.3B
EV/EBITDA—
Profit Mgn28.7%
ROE10.1%
Rev Growth16.9%
Beta0.67
Dividend0.81%
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C1.25bearish
IV47%normal
Max Pain$75-25.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicTexas
    10-K Item 1A: 'The Company's business is concentrated in Texas and exposure to the Texas economy, including the energy industry, could adversely affect its performance.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-23Item 5.02LOW
    John Cummings, Managing Director and Chief Administrative Officer, named Chief Operating Officer effective April 16, 2026. Internal promotion; no reason cited for prior COO vacancy.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesMomentum 4.3<4.5A.R:R -1.1=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.40EARNINGS PROXIMITY 76d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
49 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $93.99Resistance $106.82

Price Targets

$94
$105
A.Upside+4.5%
A.R:R-1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.8% upside)
! Momentum score 4.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-16 (76d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TCBI stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $100.20, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $104.68 (+4.5%), stop $93.98 (−6.6%), A.R:R -1.1:1. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TCBI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $104.68 (+4.5% upside). Target $104.68 (+4.5%), stop $93.98 (−6.6%), A.R:R -1.1:1. Stop-loss: $93.98.

What are the risks of investing in TCBI?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is TCBI overvalued or undervalued?

Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. trades at a P/E of 13.3 (forward 11.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about TCBI?

20 analysts cover TCBI with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $107.

What does Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. do?Texas Capital Bancshares is a Dallas-headquartered full-service financial services firm operating through Texas Capital...

Texas Capital Bancshares is a Dallas-headquartered full-service financial services firm operating through Texas Capital Bank (Texas state-chartered) and Texas Capital Securities (broker-dealer). It serves businesses, entrepreneurs, and individuals with offices in Austin, Dallas, Fort Worth, Houston, and San Antonio, plus national lines including Bask Bank, mortgage finance, and investment banking.

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