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Li Auto Inc. (LI) Stock Analysis

SellHigh Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto Manufacturers

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $15.92: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.8/10 and A.R:R 1.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.

Li Auto Inc. operates in the energy vehicle market in the People's Republic of China. The company designs, develops, manufactures, and sells premium smart electric vehicles. Its product line comprises multi-purpose vehicles and sport utility vehicles. The company offers sales... Read more

$15.92+14.1% A.UpsideScore 3.8/10#16 of 16 Auto Manufacturers
QualityF-score2 / 9FCF yield-65.81%
Stop $16.03Target $19.04(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.6:1
Analyst target$21.16+32.9%27 analysts
$19.04our TP
$15.92price
$21.16mean
$37

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $15.92: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.8/10 and A.R:R 1.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 3.8/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Li Auto Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)104.3
P/E (Fwd)20.0
Mkt Cap$17.0B
EV/EBITDA-11.6
Profit Mgn1.0%
ROE1.6%
Rev Growth-35.0%
Beta0.62
DividendNone
Rating analysts36

Quality Signals

Piotroski F2/9

Options Flow

P/C0.43bullish
IV98%elevated
Max Pain$26+63.3% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

5 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -35.0% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Earnings Growth
0.0
Declining revenue: -35%

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Roe
0.5
Net Margin
0.5
Piotroski F
2.2
Moat
4.6
Current Ratio
6.4
Earnings quality RED FLAG: -997% FCF/NINo competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9Quality concerns

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Value Rank
4.2
Quality Rank
5.4

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
8.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MEarnings in 9 days

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Vol Acceleration
2.2
Macd
3.3
Rsi
4.5
Volume
10.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.9%/30d — confirmed downtrendVolume surge (2.8x avg) on selloff
GatesMomentum 3.7<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 9d<=14d (soft)A.R:R 1.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
42 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $16.53Resistance $20.09

Price Targets

$16
$19
A.Upside+19.6%
A.R:R1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 3.7/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-28 (9d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $15.92: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.8/10 and A.R:R 1.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $16.03. Score 3.8/10, high confidence.

What is the LI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $19.04 (+14.1% upside). Prior stop was $16.03. Stop-loss: $16.03.

What are the risks of investing in LI?

Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0).

Is LI overvalued or undervalued?

Li Auto Inc. trades at a P/E of 104.3 (forward 20.0). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about LI?

36 analysts cover LI with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $21.

What does Li Auto Inc. do?Li Auto Inc. operates in the energy vehicle market in the People's Republic of China. The company designs, develops,...

Li Auto Inc. operates in the energy vehicle market in the People's Republic of China. The company designs, develops, manufactures, and sells premium smart electric vehicles. Its product line comprises multi-purpose vehicles and sport utility vehicles. The company offers sales and after sales management, and technology development and corporate management services, as well as manufacturing equipment. It offers its products through online and offline channels. The company was formerly known as Leading Ideal Inc. and changed its name to Li Auto Inc. in July 2020. Li Auto Inc. was founded in 2015 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.

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