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Lithia Motors, Inc. (LAD) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto & Truck Dealerships

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $293.81: Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.73; Below-average business quality.

Lithia Motors (Lithia and Driveway) is the largest global automotive retailer with 455 locations representing 54 brands in the US, UK, and Canada. Revenue comes from new and used vehicle sales, F&I products, and aftersales service; the company also operates Driveway (e-commerce)... Read more

$293.81+11.7% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#13 of 16 Auto & Truck Dealerships
Stop $273.28Target $328.14(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.8:1
Analyst target$364.60+24.1%15 analysts
$328.14our TP
$293.81price
$364.60mean
$426

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $293.81: Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.73; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 66. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.50, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin 3.8%), Material insider selling (6 sells, 0.46% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.2
P/E (Fwd)7.2
Mkt Cap$6.8B
EV/EBITDA11.5
Profit Mgn1.9%
ROE10.9%
Rev Growth1.0%
Beta
Dividend0.76%
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F2/9

Options Flow

P/C1.73bearish
IV47%normal
Max Pain$150-48.9% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWSupplierHonda, Toyota, Ford, BMW, and Stellantis25%
    10-K Item 1A: 'New vehicles from five manufacturers, Honda, Toyota, Ford, BMW, and Stellantis, represent 25% of our sales.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-13Item 5.02MEDIUM
    SVP/Chief Innovation and Technology Officer George Hines transitioning out of role effective March 1, 2026; technology functions to report under CFO Tina Miller and Chief Customer Officer Dianna du Preez. Named successors; Hines to continue in non-executive role.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
2.7

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.6
Support Resistance
1.9
52w Position
6.3

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.9
Operating Margin
1.4
Piotroski F
2.2
Roa
2.6
Roe
3.6
Current Ratio
4.0
Moat
5.0
Fcf Quality
9.3
Excellent cash conversion: 130% FCF/NINo competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9
GatesA.R:R 0.8 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.9>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.50EARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
66 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $246.90Resistance $304.80

Price Targets

$273
$328
A.Upside+11.7%
A.R:R0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin 3.8%), Material insider selling (6 sells, 0.46% of cap)
! Reward/Risk 0.8:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-29 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LAD stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $293.81: Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.73; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 66. Prior stop was $273.28. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the LAD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $328.14 (+11.7% upside). Prior stop was $273.28. Stop-loss: $273.28.

What are the risks of investing in LAD?

Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin 3.8%), Material insider selling (6 sells, 0.46% of cap).

Is LAD overvalued or undervalued?

Lithia Motors, Inc. trades at a P/E of 10.2 (forward 7.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about LAD?

20 analysts cover LAD with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $365.

What does Lithia Motors, Inc. do?Lithia Motors (Lithia and Driveway) is the largest global automotive retailer with 455 locations representing 54 brands...

Lithia Motors (Lithia and Driveway) is the largest global automotive retailer with 455 locations representing 54 brands in the US, UK, and Canada. Revenue comes from new and used vehicle sales, F&I products, and aftersales service; the company also operates Driveway (e-commerce) and DFC (in-house consumer financing).

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