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Kratos Defense & Security Solut (KTOS) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $62.28: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10 and A.R:R 5.7:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions develops technology, hardware, and software products for defense and national security markets, including unmanned aerial drones, hypersonic/rocket systems, satellite ground systems, and microwave electronics. The US Government (including all... Read more

$62.28+68.8% A.UpsideScore 4.5/10#39 of 46 Aerospace & Defense
Stop $57.89Target $105.08(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 5.7:1
Analyst target$116.75+87.5%20 analysts
$105.08our TP
$62.28price
$116.75mean
$150

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $62.28: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10 and A.R:R 5.7:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 34, MACD bearish. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. Government (68.0%)
Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)458.2
P/E (Fwd)55.4
Mkt Cap$11.2B
EV/EBITDA130.1
Profit Mgn1.6%
ROE1.3%
Rev Growth21.9%
Beta1.22
DividendNone
Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV91%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerU.S. Government68%
    10-K Item 1A: 'In fiscal 2025, 2024 and 2023, we generated 68%, 67% and 69%, respectively, of our total revenues from contracts with the U.S. Government'
  • MEDIUMCustomerU.S. Navy18%
    10-K Item 1A: 'the U.S. Navy accounted for 17.7% and 14.7%, respectively, of our total revenues'
  • LOWCustomerU.S. Air Force13%
    10-K Item 1A: 'the U.S. Air Force accounted for 12.6% and 15.2% respectively, of our total revenues'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-25Item 5.02LOW
    Board appointed David King as director effective March 23, 2026, also to Audit Committee. Mr. Hoglund stepped down from Audit Committee but remains Chairman of the Board.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+5.5%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Fcf Quality
0.0
Roe
0.4
Roa
0.5
Gross Margin
0.6
Net Margin
0.8
Operating Margin
1.2
Piotroski F
4.4
Moat
5.0
Current Ratio
8.9
Earnings quality RED FLAG: -577% FCF/NINo competitive moatQuality concerns

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
1.3
Quality Rank
2.6
Growth Rank
6.5
GatesMomentum 1.3<4.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dA.R:R 5.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
34 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $59.06Resistance $79.44

Price Targets

$58
$105
A.Upside+68.7%
A.R:R5.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 1.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-06 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KTOS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $62.28: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10 and A.R:R 5.7:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 34, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $57.89. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the KTOS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $105.08 (+68.8% upside). Prior stop was $57.89. Stop-loss: $57.89.

What are the risks of investing in KTOS?

Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. Government (68.0%); Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0).

Is KTOS overvalued or undervalued?

Kratos Defense & Security Solut trades at a P/E of 458.2 (forward 55.4). TrendMatrix value score: 4.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about KTOS?

27 analysts cover KTOS with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $117.

What does Kratos Defense & Security Solut do?Kratos Defense & Security Solutions develops technology, hardware, and software products for defense and national...

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions develops technology, hardware, and software products for defense and national security markets, including unmanned aerial drones, hypersonic/rocket systems, satellite ground systems, and microwave electronics. The US Government (including all military branches and FMS) represented 68% of total revenues in fiscal 2025.

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