Skip to main content

Kratos Defense & Security Solut (KTOS) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $53.84: Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 7.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.45; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Kratos Defense is a technology, hardware, and software company serving defense and national security markets through two segments: Kratos Government Solutions (microwave electronics, space/satellite, training, C5ISR, turbine technologies) and Unmanned Systems (jet-powered aerial... Read more

$53.84+88.7% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#22 of 47 Aerospace & Defense
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield-1.06%
Stop $50.11Target $100.76(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 7.3:1
Analyst target$111.95+107.9%20 analysts
$100.76our TP
$53.84price
$111.95mean
$150

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $53.84: Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 7.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.45; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Kratos Defense & Security Solut

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. Government (68.0%)
Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)314.5
P/E (Fwd)49.8
Mkt Cap$10.0B
EV/EBITDA107.7
Profit Mgn2.1%
ROE1.2%
Rev Growth22.6%
Beta1.06
DividendNone
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C1.45bearish
IV78%elevated
Max Pain$44-18.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerU.S. Navy18%
    10-K Item 1A: 'the U.S. Navy accounted for 17.7% and 14.7%, respectively, of our total revenues' in fiscal 2025 and 2024
  • MEDIUMCustomerU.S. Air Force13%
    10-K Item 1A: 'the U.S. Air Force accounted for 12.6% and 15.2% respectively, of our total revenues' in fiscal 2025 and 2024
  • HIGHCustomerU.S. Government68%
    10-K Item 1A: 'In fiscal 2025, 2024 and 2023, we generated 68%, 67% and 69%, respectively, of our total revenues from contracts with the U.S. Government'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-25Item 5.02LOW
    Board appointed David King as director effective March 23, 2026, also joining the Audit Committee. Mr. Hoglund stepped down from Audit Committee but remains Chairman and member of other committees. Routine board appointment.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Fcf Quality
0.0
Roe
0.4
Roa
0.4
Gross Margin
0.6
Operating Margin
0.7
Net Margin
1.0
Piotroski F
4.4
Moat
4.9
Current Ratio
7.4
Earnings quality RED FLAG: -363% FCF/NINo competitive moatQuality concerns

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.5
Macd
7.6
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.2%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 2.9<4.5A.R:R 7.3 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
31 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $51.66Resistance $68.74

Price Targets

$50
$101
A.Upside+87.1%
A.R:R7.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 2.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KTOS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $53.84: Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 7.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.45; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $50.11. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the KTOS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $100.76 (+88.7% upside). Prior stop was $50.11. Stop-loss: $50.11.

What are the risks of investing in KTOS?

Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. Government (68.0%); Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0).

Is KTOS overvalued or undervalued?

Kratos Defense & Security Solut trades at a P/E of 314.5 (forward 49.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about KTOS?

28 analysts cover KTOS with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $112.

What does Kratos Defense & Security Solut do?Kratos Defense is a technology, hardware, and software company serving defense and national security markets through...

Kratos Defense is a technology, hardware, and software company serving defense and national security markets through two segments: Kratos Government Solutions (microwave electronics, space/satellite, training, C5ISR, turbine technologies) and Unmanned Systems (jet-powered aerial drones, ground/seaborne unmanned systems). The US Government accounted for 68% of total revenues in fiscal 2025, with the US Navy at 17.7% and US Air Force at 12.6%.

Related stocks: LOAR (Loar Holdings Inc.) · VVX (V2X, Inc.) · FTAI (FTAI Aviation Ltd.) · NOC (Northrop Grumman Corporation) · AXON (Axon Enterprise, Inc.)