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KRKroger Company (The)Sell5.1·$63.09
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Kroger offers a forward earnings multiple of 11.4x, exceptional free cash flow generation at 335% of net income, and a flawless four-quarter earnings beat streak, but confirmed negative price momentum with the stock below its 200-day moving average and quality metrics just short of the minimum threshold argue for waiting on a more constructive technical backdrop before building a position.

Thesis pillars

  • Exceptional Free Cash Flow Conversion→Stable
  • Four Quarter Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
  • Attractive Valuation Compressed Multiples↓Deteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Kroger Company (The) (KR) Stock Analysis

Momentum Cont setup

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Grocery Stores

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $63.09: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

Our Company is built on the foundation of our retail grocery business, which includes the added convenience of our retail pharmacies and fuel centers. Our strategy is focused on growing households and increasing customer loyalty by delivering great value and convenience, and... Read more

$63.09-2.5% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#6 of 10 Grocery Stores
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield7.07%
IncomeYield2.57%(5y avg 2.01%)Payout77.78%
Stop $59.85Target $72.55(default +15%)A.R:R -0.3:1
Analyst target$68.32+8.3%22 analysts
$72.55our TP
$63.09price
$68.32mean
$57
$85

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $63.09: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 49d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and news legal and news soft restructuring. Suitability: moderate.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Dec 3, 202649d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-2.5% upside)
Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)33.7
P/E (Fwd)11.0
Mkt Cap$35.9B
EV/EBITDA7.3
Profit Mgn0.7%
ROE14.4%
Rev Growth2.0%
Beta0.35
Dividend2.57%
Rating analysts33

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.85neutral
IV45%normal

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-09-02Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers.** On August 31, 2026, The Kroger Co.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
1.1
52w Position
6.7

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
3.5
Quality Rank
4.8
Growth Rank
6.0

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Net Margin
0.4
Gross Margin
0.8
Operating Margin
1.2
Current Ratio
2.8
Roa
3.9
Moat
4.2
Roe
4.8
Piotroski F
6.7
Fcf Quality
10.0
Excellent cash conversion: 234% FCF/NINo competitive moat
GatesA.R:R -0.3=NEGATIVENEWS LEGALNEWS SOFT RESTRUCTURINGDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 7.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKEARNINGS PROXIMITY 49d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARMomentum ContSuitability: Moderate
RSI
64 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $57.56Resistance $63.80

Price Targets

$60
$73
A.Upside-2.5%
A.R:R-0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-2.5% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-12-03 (49d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $63.09: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $59.85. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the KR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $72.55 (-2.5% upside). Prior stop was $59.85. Stop-loss: $59.85.

What are the risks of investing in KR?

Target reached (-2.5% upside); Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0).

Is KR overvalued or undervalued?

Kroger Company (The) trades at a P/E of 33.7 (forward 11.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about KR?

33 analysts cover KR with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $68.

What does Kroger Company (The) do?Our Company is built on the foundation of our retail grocery business, which includes the added convenience of our...

Our Company is built on the foundation of our retail grocery business, which includes the added convenience of our retail pharmacies and fuel centers. Our strategy is focused on growing households and increasing customer loyalty by delivering great value and convenience, and investing in Fresh, _Our Brands_ , Personalization and eCommerce.

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