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KRKroger Company (The)Sell4.9·$58.33
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Kroger offers a forward earnings multiple of 11.4x, exceptional free cash flow generation at 335% of net income, and a flawless four-quarter earnings beat streak, but confirmed negative price momentum with the stock below its 200-day moving average and quality metrics just short of the minimum threshold argue for waiting on a more constructive technical backdrop before building a position.

Thesis pillars

  • Exceptional Free Cash Flow Conversion→Stable
  • Four Quarter Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
  • Attractive Valuation Compressed Multiples→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Kroger Company (The) (KR) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Grocery Stores

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $58.33: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.

Our Company is built on the foundation of our retail grocery business, which includes the added convenience of our retail pharmacies and fuel centers. Our strategy is focused on growing households and increasing customer loyalty by delivering great value and convenience, and... Read more

$58.33+4.8% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#7 of 10 Grocery Stores
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield7.29%
IncomeYield2.71%(5y avg 2.04%)Payout75.68%
Stop $54.95Target $61.12(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.8:1
Analyst target$67.91+16.4%22 analysts
$61.12our TP
$58.33price
$67.91mean
$85

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $58.33: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/9 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 68d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-25
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Dec 3, 202668d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)31.2
P/E (Fwd)10.7
Mkt Cap$34.8B
EV/EBITDA7.1
Profit Mgn0.7%
ROE14.4%
Rev Growth2.0%
Beta0.41
Dividend2.71%
Rating analysts33

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.90neutral
IV35%normal
Max Pain$40-31.4% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-06-26Item 5.02MEDIUM
    On June 25, 2026, The Kroger Co. (the "Company") held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders (the "Annual Meeting").
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Macd
0.8
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
3.0
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Net Margin
0.4
Gross Margin
0.8
Operating Margin
1.2
Current Ratio
2.8
Roa
3.9
Moat
4.2
Roe
4.8
Piotroski F
6.7
Fcf Quality
10.0
Excellent cash conversion: 234% FCF/NINo competitive moat
GatesMomentum 1.9<4.5A.R:R 0.8 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 68d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
49 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $55.65Resistance $62.55

Price Targets

$55
$61
A.Upside+4.8%
A.R:R0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0)
! momentum at 1.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.8 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-12-03 (68d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $58.33: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $54.95. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the KR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $61.12 (+4.8% upside). Prior stop was $54.95. Stop-loss: $54.95.

What are the risks of investing in KR?

Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0).

Is KR overvalued or undervalued?

Kroger Company (The) trades at a P/E of 31.2 (forward 10.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about KR?

33 analysts cover KR with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $68.

What does Kroger Company (The) do?Our Company is built on the foundation of our retail grocery business, which includes the added convenience of our...

Our Company is built on the foundation of our retail grocery business, which includes the added convenience of our retail pharmacies and fuel centers. Our strategy is focused on growing households and increasing customer loyalty by delivering great value and convenience, and investing in Fresh, _Our Brands_ , Personalization and eCommerce.

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