Sprouts Farmers Market has a perfect 4-quarter earnings beat streak and a 37% return on equity, but the stock trades below its 200-day moving average in a confirmed downtrend, with 16% short interest and a key supplier concentration risk through KeHE at 52% of supply.
Thesis pillars
- High Return On Equity Compounder↓Deteriorating
- Kehoe Supplier Concentration Risk↓Deteriorating
- Perfect Earnings Beat Streak↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 19, 2026· older than 90 days
Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. (SFM) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Consumer Defensive · Grocery Stores
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $52.49: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 17%; Elevated put/call ratio: 3.18; Negative price momentum.
Sprouts Farmers Market operated 477 specialty grocery stores in 24 states at December 28, 2025, emphasizing fresh produce, natural, and organic foods in a farmers-market-style format averaging 28,000 square feet, with more than 36,000 team members. Sprouts Brand private-label... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $52.49: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 17%; Elevated put/call ratio: 3.18; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 35, MACD bearish. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/8 gates (clean insider activity, earnings proximity 105d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
Recent developments
updated Oct 28, 2026Recent Developments — Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Sprouts Farmers Market cuts FY26 outlook as cyclospora fallout lingers (SFM:NASDAQ) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha Oct 28, 2026 negative
- NEWS Sprouts Farmers Market (NASDAQ:SFM) Shares Fall on Q3 Revenue and EPS Miss, Negative Comps, and Cautious Q4 Outlook - Ch — ChartMill Oct 28, 2026 negative
- NEWS (SFM) Sprouts Farmers Market Expects 2026 EPS $4.80, vs. FactSet Est of $5.53 - marketscreener.com — marketscreener.com Oct 28, 2026 negative
- NEWS (SFM) Sprouts Farmers Market Expects 2026 EPS $4.80, vs. FactSet Est of $5.53 - www.marketscreener.com — www.marketscreener.com Oct 28, 2026 negative
- NEWS Sprouts Farmers Market Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript - Benzinga — Benzinga Oct 28, 2026 neutral
Latest item Oct 28, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-04T12:04:37Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHSupplierKeHE52%10-K Item 1A: 'KeHE is our primary distributor of dry grocery and frozen food products, accounting for approximately 52% and 50% of our total purchases in fiscal 2025 and 2024, respectively'
- LOWSupplierUNFI12%10-K Item 1A: 'Another 12% and 3% of our total purchases in fiscal 2025 and 2024, respectively, were made through our secondary distributor of dry grocery and frozen food products, UNFI'
- MEDIUMGeographicCalifornia10-K Item 1A: 'we operated 156 stores in California, making California our largest market representing 33% of our total stores in fiscal 2025'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-19Item 5.02LOWOn May 19, 2026, Sprouts Farmers Market appointed Andrew Jhawar as a Class III director (term to 2028 annual meeting, Audit Committee). Doug Rauch simultaneously retired from the Board. Routine director change; no officer departure.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $52.49: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 17%; Elevated put/call ratio: 3.18; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 35, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $48.82. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $53.07 (+1.1% upside). Prior stop was $48.82. Stop-loss: $48.82.
Concentration risk — Supplier: KeHE (52.0%); Target reached (1.1% upside); Risk below floor (3.3 < 4.0).
Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. trades at a P/E of 10.6 (forward 11.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Sell.
22 analysts rate SFM, with a consensus score of 3.5/5. 14 analysts publish price targets averaging $61.
What does Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. do?Sprouts Farmers Market operated 477 specialty grocery stores in 24 states at December 28, 2025, emphasizing fresh...
Sprouts Farmers Market operated 477 specialty grocery stores in 24 states at December 28, 2025, emphasizing fresh produce, natural, and organic foods in a farmers-market-style format averaging 28,000 square feet, with more than 36,000 team members. Sprouts Brand private-label products exceeded 25% of revenue in fiscal 2025, perishables accounted for 57% of sales, and produce alone represented approximately 17% of net sales.