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Kosmos Energy Ltd. (KOS) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $3.21: Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

Kosmos Energy is a deepwater E&P company with producing assets offshore Ghana (47% of 2025 BOE sales volumes), Equatorial Guinea (11%), Mauritania/Senegal (13%), and the Gulf of America (29%). Revenue of $1.29B in 2025 is primarily from oil sales (74% of volumes), with natural... Read more

$3.21+1.9% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#24 of 37 Oil & Gas E&P
QualityF-score5 / 9FCF yield13.21%
Stop $2.99Target $3.27(resistance)A.R:R -1.4:1
Analyst target$2.90-9.5%10 analysts
$3.27our TP
$3.21price
$2.90mean
$1
$4

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $3.21: Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 57, MACD bullish. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 82d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and clean insider activity. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Kosmos Energy Ltd.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-21.3% upside)
Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)23.5
Mkt Cap$1.9B
EV/EBITDA15.0
Profit Mgn-59.5%
ROE-101.0%
Rev Growth27.7%
Beta0.72
DividendNone
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.56bullish
IV86%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/4M

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Current Ratio
2.4
Piotroski F
5.6
Moat
5.8
Fcf Quality
6.0
Gross Margin
6.2
FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 18%, FCF yield 13.2%)Quality concerns

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.0
Growth Rank
6.8
Value Rank
8.9
GatesA.R:R -1.4=NEGATIVEINSIDER 0.37%=HEAVYMomentum 5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.0>=4.5No SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 82d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
57 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $2.53Resistance $3.34

Price Targets

$3
$3
A.Upside+1.9%
A.R:R-1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-21.3% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-10 (82d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KOS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $3.21: Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 57, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $2.99. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the KOS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $3.27 (+1.9% upside). Prior stop was $2.99. Stop-loss: $2.99.

What are the risks of investing in KOS?

Target reached (-21.3% upside); Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0).

Is KOS overvalued or undervalued?

Kosmos Energy Ltd. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 23.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about KOS?

15 analysts cover KOS with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $3.

What does Kosmos Energy Ltd. do?Kosmos Energy is a deepwater E&P company with producing assets offshore Ghana (47% of 2025 BOE sales volumes),...

Kosmos Energy is a deepwater E&P company with producing assets offshore Ghana (47% of 2025 BOE sales volumes), Equatorial Guinea (11%), Mauritania/Senegal (13%), and the Gulf of America (29%). Revenue of $1.29B in 2025 is primarily from oil sales (74% of volumes), with natural gas from the GTA LNG project in Mauritania/Senegal contributing meaningfully since first cargo in April 2025.

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