Three consecutive earnings misses and a negative free cash flow profile place the fundamental quality well below the minimum threshold; while near-term price momentum has kept the stock elevated, the risk/reward geometry does not justify new capital at this time.
Thesis pillars
- Persistent Earnings Execution Gap→Stable
- Negative Free Cash Flow Quality→Stable
- Momentum Without Trend Confirmation→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Knife Riv Holding Co. (KNF) Stock Analysis
Basic Materials · Building Materials
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $85.05: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.
Our 1.3 billion tons of aggregate reserves provide the foundation for our vertically integrated business strategy, with approximately 35 percent of our aggregates in 2025 being used internally to support value-added downstream products (ready-mix concrete and asphalt) and... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $85.05: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 29d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-07Recent Developments — Knife Riv Holding Co.
Latest news
- NEWS RBC Capital Maintains Outperform on Knife River, Lowers Price Target to $107 — benzinga Jun 30, 2026 positive
- NEWS Oppenheimer Assumes Knife River at Outperform, Announces Price Target of $95 — benzinga May 28, 2026 positive
- NEWS JP Morgan Maintains Neutral on Knife River, Raises Price Target to $95 — benzinga May 6, 2026 positive
- NEWS Knife River Holding Q1 2026 Earnings Call: Complete Transcript — benzinga May 5, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Earnings Scheduled For May 5, 2026 — benzinga May 5, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-07-07T11:21:38Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-21Item 5.02MEDIUMDeparture of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Appointment of Peggy S.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $85.05: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $79.10. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $90.38 (+6.3% upside). Prior stop was $79.10. Stop-loss: $79.10.
Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 1.9), Material insider selling (3 sells, 0.05% of cap).
Knife Riv Holding Co. trades at a P/E of 33.0 (forward 20.9). TrendMatrix value score: 5.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
13 analysts cover KNF with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $104.
What does Knife Riv Holding Co. do?Our 1.3 billion tons of aggregate reserves provide the foundation for our vertically integrated business strategy, with...
Our 1.3 billion tons of aggregate reserves provide the foundation for our vertically integrated business strategy, with approximately 35 percent of our aggregates in 2025 being used internally to support value-added downstream products (ready-mix concrete and asphalt) and contracting services (asphalt paving, heavy-civil construction, concrete construction, site development and grading services, and in some segments the manufacturing of prestressed concrete produ