Value
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.1 |
| P/S | 9.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.2 |
| PEG | 4.9 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 20.6x
- ▸PEG: 1.62
KNF · Why this verdict
Why Knife Riv Holding (KNF) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Three consecutive earnings misses and a negative free cash flow profile place the fundamental quality well below the minimum threshold; while near-term price momentum has kept the stock elevated, the risk/reward geometry does not justify new capital at this time.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Three of the last four quarters came in below consensus, with an average shortfall of roughly 4.4%, indicating that the business has struggled to meet expectations consistently; the most recent quarter posted a -4.9% miss, keeping the execution gap very much alive. Earnings | EPS surprise should turn consistently positive—averaging above 5% for two consecutive quarters—if operational execution is genuinely improving. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe one beat in the window was a substantial 27% positive surprise, suggesting the business can occasionally deliver strongly; guidance may simply be set too aggressively in peak quarters, making the misses somewhat mechanical rather than indicative of structural deterioration. | ||
Despite accounting profits, free cash flow is negative—the company is not converting its reported earnings into cash, as evidenced by a deeply negative FCF-to-net-income ratio of -29%—a red flag that raises questions about the durability of headline earnings. Quality | Free cash flow should turn positive and the FCF-to-net-income ratio should recover above 50% for two consecutive reporting periods if the cash conversion problem is transitory. | →Stable |
| CounterThe Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 registers solid across balance-sheet and accrual signals more broadly, suggesting the cash timing gap may reflect a working-capital cycle rather than a structural leak in the business model. | ||
Volume is accumulating and the stock is trading above its 200-day moving average, which are encouraging near-term signals; however, the flat slope of the moving average indicates that the longer-term trend has not confirmed the rally. Momentum | The 200-day moving average should turn positively sloped and hold that direction for at least two consecutive months if the trend is genuinely inflecting. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRising on-balance volume alongside positive price action can be self-fulfilling in the short run; a momentum-only move may be sufficient to attract additional buyers and extend the rally even without fundamental support. | ||
Implied volatility at 83% signals that the market is pricing in substantial uncertainty about the stock's near-term direction, compressing any practical risk/reward advantage and making position sizing difficult. Risk | Implied volatility should compress below 50% for two consecutive months if market conviction improves and uncertainty resolves. | ↑Improving |
| CounterElevated implied volatility also inflates option premiums for sellers of volatility; the uncertainty environment could normalize quickly on a single positive catalyst such as an earnings beat, compressing implied volatility without requiring a sustained fundamental improvement. | ||
Three of the last four quarters came in below consensus, with an average shortfall of roughly 4.4%, indicating that the business has struggled to meet expectations consistently; the most recent quarter posted a -4.9% miss, keeping the execution gap very much alive.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise should turn consistently positive—averaging above 5% for two consecutive quarters—if operational execution is genuinely improving.
CounterThe one beat in the window was a substantial 27% positive surprise, suggesting the business can occasionally deliver strongly; guidance may simply be set too aggressively in peak quarters, making the misses somewhat mechanical rather than indicative of structural deterioration.
Despite accounting profits, free cash flow is negative—the company is not converting its reported earnings into cash, as evidenced by a deeply negative FCF-to-net-income ratio of -29%—a red flag that raises questions about the durability of headline earnings.
→StableQuality
- Expectation
- Free cash flow should turn positive and the FCF-to-net-income ratio should recover above 50% for two consecutive reporting periods if the cash conversion problem is transitory.
CounterThe Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 registers solid across balance-sheet and accrual signals more broadly, suggesting the cash timing gap may reflect a working-capital cycle rather than a structural leak in the business model.
Volume is accumulating and the stock is trading above its 200-day moving average, which are encouraging near-term signals; however, the flat slope of the moving average indicates that the longer-term trend has not confirmed the rally.
↑ImprovingMomentum
- Expectation
- The 200-day moving average should turn positively sloped and hold that direction for at least two consecutive months if the trend is genuinely inflecting.
CounterRising on-balance volume alongside positive price action can be self-fulfilling in the short run; a momentum-only move may be sufficient to attract additional buyers and extend the rally even without fundamental support.
Implied volatility at 83% signals that the market is pricing in substantial uncertainty about the stock's near-term direction, compressing any practical risk/reward advantage and making position sizing difficult.
↑ImprovingRisk
- Expectation
- Implied volatility should compress below 50% for two consecutive months if market conviction improves and uncertainty resolves.
CounterElevated implied volatility also inflates option premiums for sellers of volatility; the uncertainty environment could normalize quickly on a single positive catalyst such as an earnings beat, compressing implied volatility without requiring a sustained fundamental improvement.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.3 |
| ROA | 3.4 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 2.3 |
| Current ratio | 9.0 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.9 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -29% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
6.5/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.5 |
Momentum
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 7.8 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 1.4 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 37) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.9 |
| Price target | 8.7 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (9.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 32%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.7 |
| quality rank | 3.2 |
| growth rank | 7.1 |
Technical
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.0 |
| support resistance | 9.5 |
| 52w position | 6.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.4 |
| days to cover | 6.0 |
| volatility | 2.3 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 5.3 |
Catalyst
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.3 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Earnings in 14 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:4.6>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.8>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (3)
- MOMENTUM:4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:14d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
1.76
Upside
+14.4%
Downside
8.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $4.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects clean gate clearance against Technical at 7.9 and asymmetric R:R of 1.76.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 7.9, Insider at 7.3, and Sentiment at 7.0; the weakest are Catalyst at 2.6, Quality at 3.4, and Peer rank at 4.6. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 3 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.76 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Persistent Earnings Execution Gap
Trip ifEPS surprise rises above 5% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Negative Free Cash Flow Quality
Trip ifFree cash flow turns positive and FCF-to-net-income ratio recovers above 50% for 2 consecutive reporting periods.
- P3Momentum Without Trend Confirmation
Trip ifStock price closes above $90 with the 200-day moving average slope turning positive for 2 consecutive months.
- P4Elevated Implied Volatility Risk
Trip ifImplied volatility drops below 50% and holds that level for 2 consecutive months.