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The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $23.20: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.

The Kraft Heinz Company manufactures and markets food and beverage products globally under brands including Kraft, Heinz, Oscar Mayer, Philadelphia, and Lunchables, with ~$25B in 2025 net sales. Operating through North America, International Developed Markets, and Emerging... Read more

$23.20+2.4% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#19 of 26 Packaged Foods
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield11.60%
IncomeYield6.85%(5y avg 4.85%)Payout73.06%
Stop $21.77Target $23.67(resistance)A.R:R -1.2:1
Analyst target$23.87+2.9%19 analysts
$23.67our TP
$23.20price
$23.87mean
$17
$42

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $23.20: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 58. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — The Kraft Heinz Company

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: Walmart (21.0%)
Concentration risk — Customer: five largest customers in North America (46.0%)
Target reached (-7.1% upside)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)11.1
Mkt Cap$27.7B
EV/EBITDA7.8
Profit Mgn-23.0%
ROE-12.6%
Rev Growth0.8%
Beta0.05
Dividend6.85%
Rating analysts30

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.83neutral
IV53%elevated
Max Pain$15-35.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerWalmart21%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our largest customer, Walmart Inc., represented approximately 21% of our net sales in 2025, 2024, and 2023.'
  • HIGHCustomerfive largest customers in North America46%
    10-K Item 1: 'the five largest customers in our North America segment accounted for approximately 46% of North America segment net sales'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-18Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Pedro Navio (EVP and President, North America) stepping down effective February 22, 2026 to pursue other opportunities. Will remain as advisor through March 6, 2026 and receive severance. No immediate successor named.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.2
Value Rank
2.7
Growth Rank
3.1

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
2.7
Earnings Growth
4.7

Unprofitable operations — net margin -23.0%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Roa
2.3
Gross Margin
2.8
Moat
3.9
Current Ratio
4.6
Operating Margin
8.3
Piotroski F
8.9
No competitive moatStrong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
GatesA.R:R -1.2=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.5>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
58 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $21.75Resistance $24.15

Price Targets

$22
$24
A.Upside+2.0%
A.R:R-1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-7.1% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KHC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $23.20: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 58. Prior stop was $21.77. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the KHC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $23.67 (+2.4% upside). Prior stop was $21.77. Stop-loss: $21.77.

What are the risks of investing in KHC?

Concentration risk — Customer: Walmart (21.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: five largest customers in North America (46.0%); Target reached (-7.1% upside).

Is KHC overvalued or undervalued?

The Kraft Heinz Company trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 11.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about KHC?

30 analysts cover KHC with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $24.

What does The Kraft Heinz Company do?The Kraft Heinz Company manufactures and markets food and beverage products globally under brands including Kraft,...

The Kraft Heinz Company manufactures and markets food and beverage products globally under brands including Kraft, Heinz, Oscar Mayer, Philadelphia, and Lunchables, with ~$25B in 2025 net sales. Operating through North America, International Developed Markets, and Emerging Markets segments, it earns revenue from retail, foodservice, and e-commerce channels. Walmart represents approximately 21% of consolidated net sales.

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