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The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $22.61: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.65; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

The Kraft Heinz Company produces and markets branded food and beverage products with approximately 25 billion in 2025 net sales across four segments. Key brands include Kraft, Heinz, Oscar Mayer, Philadelphia, and Velveeta. A planned separation into two public companies... Read more

$22.61+2.6% A.UpsideScore 4.1/10#26 of 26 Packaged Foods
Stop $21.63Target $23.15(resistance)A.R:R -0.9:1
Analyst target$23.97+6.0%19 analysts
$23.15our TP
$22.61price
$23.97mean
$18
$42

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $22.61: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.65; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 42. Score 4.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-4.4% upside)
Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)10.5
Mkt Cap$26.5B
EV/EBITDA7.8
Profit Mgn-23.4%
ROE-12.8%
Rev Growth-3.4%
Beta0.05
Dividend7.14%
Rating analysts29

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C1.65bearish
IV50%elevated
Max Pain$28+23.8% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomersignificant customers
    10-K Item 1A: 'We derive significant portions of our sales from certain significant customers'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-18Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Pedro Navio, EVP and President North America, stepping down effective February 22, 2026 to pursue other opportunities. Remains as advisor through March 6, 2026. No successor named.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -3.4% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
1.7
Declining revenue: -3%

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.2
Growth Rank
1.9
Value Rank
2.3

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
4.5
Macd
7.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.8%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Unprofitable operations — net margin -23.4%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Roa
2.3
Gross Margin
2.7
Current Ratio
4.5
Moat
5.0
Piotroski F
5.6
Operating Margin
7.0
No competitive moat
GatesMomentum 3.3<4.5A.R:R -0.9=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
42 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $21.75Resistance $23.62

Price Targets

$22
$23
A.Upside+2.4%
A.R:R-0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-4.4% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 3.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-06 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KHC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $22.61: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.65; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 42. Prior stop was $21.63. Score 4.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the KHC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $23.15 (+2.6% upside). Prior stop was $21.63. Stop-loss: $21.63.

What are the risks of investing in KHC?

Target reached (-4.4% upside); Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0).

Is KHC overvalued or undervalued?

The Kraft Heinz Company trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 10.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about KHC?

29 analysts cover KHC with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $24.

What does The Kraft Heinz Company do?The Kraft Heinz Company produces and markets branded food and beverage products with approximately 25 billion in 2025...

The Kraft Heinz Company produces and markets branded food and beverage products with approximately 25 billion in 2025 net sales across four segments. Key brands include Kraft, Heinz, Oscar Mayer, Philadelphia, and Velveeta. A planned separation into two public companies announced September 2025 was paused in February 2026.

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