McCormick is a wide-moat consumer franchise with best-in-class margins and three beats in the last four quarters trading below its 200-day moving average — with earnings nine days away, the technical downtrend may prove transient if the company delivers again, but a persistent free cash flow quality gap warrants ongoing monitoring.
Thesis pillars
- Wide Moat Superior Margins→Stable
- Valuation Margin Of Safety→Stable
- Fcf Conversion Quality Gap→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
McCormick & Company, Incorporat (MKC) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $47.82, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Cyclical risk: PE expanding 1.8x (earnings normalizing); Thin upside margin: 9.3%.
McCormick manufactures and distributes herbs, spices, seasonings, condiments, and flavor solutions globally in two segments — Consumer (58% of 2025 net sales) and Flavor Solutions (42%) — with approximately 39% of sales from non-U.S. operations and 14,100 employees. Walmart and... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $47.82, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Cyclical risk: PE expanding 1.8x (earnings normalizing); Thin upside margin: 9.3%. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 16, MACD bearish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-25Recent Developments — McCormick & Company, Incorporat
Latest news
- NEWS McCormick (MKC) Set to Report Q2 Earnings with Positive Expectat - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS McCormick & Company, Incorporated Sees Unusually Large Options Volume (NYSE:MKC) - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS McCormick Q2 Earnings Coming Up: Essential Insights for Investors - The Globe and Mail — The Globe and Mail neutral
- NEWS McCormick Q2 Earnings Coming Up: Essential Insights for Investors - TradingView — TradingView neutral
- NEWS McCormick (MKC) Declares Consistent Dividend of $0.48 Per Share - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
Generated 2026-09-25T23:46:58Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWCustomerWal-Mart Stores, Inc.12%10-K Item 1: 'Sales to one of our Consumer segment customers, Wal-Mart Stores, Inc., accounted for consolidated sales of approximately 12% in 2025'
- LOWCustomerPepsiCo, Inc.12%10-K Item 1: 'Sales to one of our Flavor Solutions segment customers, PepsiCo, Inc., accounted for consolidated sales of approximately 12% in 2025'
- MEDIUMCustomertop three Flavor Solutions customers49%10-K Item 1: 'the top three customers in our Flavor Solutions segment represented 49% of our global Flavor Solutions sales'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-26Item 5.02LOWCindy Hoots appointed to McCormick Board effective June 1, 2026, joining Audit Committee. Ms. Hoots is recently retired Chief Digital Officer and CIO of AstraZeneca PLC. No departures cited.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-17Item 5.02MEDIUMAndrew Foust, President Americas, appointed Chief Integration Officer for Unilever PLC foods combination. Patrick Davis named Interim President Americas. Foust expected to return to President Americas post-integration.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-18Item 5.02MEDIUMGregory P. Repas retiring as VP & Controller (Principal Accounting Officer) effective April 1, 2026. Julie Giese appointed successor VP & Controller and PAO effective April 1, 2026 at $400,000 annual base salary.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $47.82, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Cyclical risk: PE expanding 1.8x (earnings normalizing); Thin upside margin: 9.3%. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 16, MACD bearish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $52.27 (+9.3%), stop $46.33 (−3.2%), A.R:R 1.9:1. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $52.27 (+9.3% upside). Target $52.27 (+9.3%), stop $46.33 (−3.2%), A.R:R 1.9:1. Stop-loss: $46.33.
Cyclical risk: PE expanding 1.8x (earnings normalizing); Thin upside margin: 9.3%; Earnings in 6 days (event risk).
McCormick & Company, Incorporat trades at a P/E of 8.0 (forward 14.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Hold.
20 analysts cover MKC with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $60.
What does McCormick & Company, Incorporat do?McCormick manufactures and distributes herbs, spices, seasonings, condiments, and flavor solutions globally in two...
McCormick manufactures and distributes herbs, spices, seasonings, condiments, and flavor solutions globally in two segments — Consumer (58% of 2025 net sales) and Flavor Solutions (42%) — with approximately 39% of sales from non-U.S. operations and 14,100 employees. Walmart and PepsiCo each represented roughly 12% of 2025 consolidated sales, and the top three Flavor Solutions customers accounted for 49% of global Flavor Solutions sales.