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McCormick & Company, Incorporat (MKC) Stock Analysis

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $50.52, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Cyclical risk: PE expanding 1.8x (earnings normalizing); Thin upside margin: 8.5%.

McCormick manufactures, markets, and distributes herbs, spices, seasonings, condiments, and flavorings globally through Consumer and Flavor Solutions segments, with major facilities in North America, Europe, and China. Revenue comes from retail grocery chains, food... Read more

$50.52+8.5% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#6 of 26 Packaged Foods
Stop $47.59Target $54.54(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.3:1
Analyst target$62.69+24.1%13 analysts
$54.54our TP
$50.52price
$62.69mean
$77

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $50.52, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Cyclical risk: PE expanding 1.8x (earnings normalizing); Thin upside margin: 8.5%. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 63d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Margin of safety: 45%
Risks
Cyclical risk: PE expanding 1.8x (earnings normalizing)
Thin upside margin: 8.5%
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)8.3
P/E (Fwd)15.1
Mkt Cap$13.6B
EV/EBITDA13.9
Profit Mgn23.1%
ROE25.3%
Rev Growth16.7%
Beta0.71
Dividend3.80%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.24bearish
IV42%normal
Max Pain$75+48.5% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomertwo large customers24%
    10-K Item 1A: 'two large customers that, in the aggregate, constituted approximately 24% of consolidated sales in 2025'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-17Item 5.02LOW
    Andrew Foust (President Americas) appointed Chief Integration Officer for Unilever foods combination; Patrick Davis named Interim President Americas. Foust remains Executive Officer and is expected to return to President Americas post-integration. Clean handoff.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-18Item 5.02LOW
    Gregory Repas (VP & Controller, PAO) retiring July 1, 2026; stepping down as PAO April 1. Julie Giese, age 46, appointed VP & Controller and PAO effective April 1, 2026. Clean handoff with named successor.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.5
Macd
9.3
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.0<4.5A.R:R 1.3 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 63d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
32 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $47.09Resistance $54.21

Price Targets

$48
$55
A.Upside+8.0%
A.R:R1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.3:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-02 (63d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MKC stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $50.52, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Cyclical risk: PE expanding 1.8x (earnings normalizing); Thin upside margin: 8.5%. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $54.54 (+8.0%), stop $47.59 (−6.2%), A.R:R 1.3:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MKC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $54.54 (+8.5% upside). Target $54.54 (+8.0%), stop $47.59 (−6.2%), A.R:R 1.3:1. Stop-loss: $47.59.

What are the risks of investing in MKC?

Cyclical risk: PE expanding 1.8x (earnings normalizing); Thin upside margin: 8.5%; Negative momentum.

Is MKC overvalued or undervalued?

McCormick & Company, Incorporat trades at a P/E of 8.3 (forward 15.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about MKC?

19 analysts cover MKC with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $63.

What does McCormick & Company, Incorporat do?McCormick manufactures, markets, and distributes herbs, spices, seasonings, condiments, and flavorings globally through...

McCormick manufactures, markets, and distributes herbs, spices, seasonings, condiments, and flavorings globally through Consumer and Flavor Solutions segments, with major facilities in North America, Europe, and China. Revenue comes from retail grocery chains, food manufacturers, and foodservice companies; in 2025 Consumer was ~58% and Flavor Solutions ~42% of net sales.

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