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KEKimball Electronics, Inc.Sell5.3·$24.21+1.30%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Kimball Electronics trades at a deep value multiple with strong cash conversion and a recovering technical setup, but a below-floor quality score and a failed asymmetry gate keep the position sizing at avoid despite a string of earnings beats.

Thesis pillars

  • Strong Cash ConversionStable
  • Deep Value MultipleStable
  • Quality Below Floor RiskImproving
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Kimball Electronics, Inc. (KE) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup · Inst Constrain edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Industrials · Electrical Equipment & Parts

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $24.21 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.0); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Kimball Electronics is a contract manufacturer providing electronics manufacturing services (EMS) and, through its new Kimball Solutions brand, contract development and manufacturing organization (CDMO) services spanning medical disposables, drug delivery devices, and precision... Read more

$24.21+20.2% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#14 of 24 Electrical Equipment & Parts
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield9.12%
Stop $22.52Target $29.11(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 2.1:1
Analyst target$34.25+41.5%4 analysts
$29.11our TP
$24.21price
$34.25mean
$37

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $24.21 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.0); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 39, MACD bearish. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 62d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Kimball Electronics, Inc.

About Kimball Electronics, Inc.

Kimball Electronics generated 46% of fiscal 2026 net sales from automotive customers, 29% from medical, and 25% from industrial, and its three largest customers -- Nexteer Automotive (18%), Philips (11%), and ZF (11%) -- together accounted for approximately 40% of net sales. The company operates 11 manufacturing facilities across the U.S., Mexico, China, India, the Netherlands, Poland, Romania, and Thailand, deriving a substantial majority of revenue from operations outside the United States. Kimball completed its largest-ever acquisition, Helvoet Polymer Technologies, on July 1, 2026, expanding its precision molded plastics and medical device manufacturing capabilities and adding facilities in India and the Netherlands.

Kimball earns revenue as a contract manufacturer, producing printed circuit board assemblies, higher-level and final assemblies, medical disposables, drug delivery devices, and precision molded plastics to customer specifications under agreements that typically lack firm long-term production commitments -- customers generally do not commit to firm production schedules beyond one quarter, and margins on new program start-ups are typically diluted early before recovering as programs mature. Raw materials, particularly semiconductors, are sourced globally and have experienced periodic shortages and allocations; many customer contracts allow periodic price re-pricing tied to component costs, though Kimball can bear the risk of cost increases between repricing windows. During fiscal 2026, tariffs implemented under various U.S. trade authorities increased supply-chain costs, most of which the company recovered through contractual pass-through and repricing mechanisms. Kimball funded a portion of the Helvoet acquisition price through its credit facilities, and integrating Helvoet's India and EU operations, employees, and customer relationships is a key execution risk going forward.

Show full overview

Kimball's supply chain carries specific geographic concentration risk beyond generic component shortages: the 10-K flags prolonged reliance on select regions, including Taiwan and mainland China, for certain critical components, and separately states its supply chain is heavily reliant on raw materials and components manufactured and assembled in various countries including China, which are subject to tariffs the company has only partially recovered through contractual pass-through. That regional concentration sits alongside a manufacturing footprint concentration of its own: a substantial majority of Kimball's revenue comes from operations outside the United States, primarily in China, Mexico, Poland, Romania, and Thailand, so the same geopolitical and trade-policy shifts that threaten component sourcing also touch the facilities producing the finished goods -- a compounding exposure to any single country-level disruption rather than an independent, diversifiable risk.

See also: Industrials · Electrical Equipment & Parts

From Kimball Electronics, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted August 23, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-03
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Nov 4, 202662d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Analyst upside: 20%
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.0)
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)21.1
P/E (Fwd)13.2
Mkt Cap$582M
EV/EBITDA6.6
Profit Mgn2.0%
ROE4.8%
Rev Growth-2.3%
Beta1.21
DividendNone
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

IV74%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomerNexteer Automotive18%
    10-K Item 1A: 'sales to Nexteer Automotive alone accounted for approximately 18% of our net sales'
  • MEDIUMCustomertop three customers (Nexteer Automotive, Philips, ZF)40%
    10-K Item 1A: 'sales to our three largest customers — Nexteer Automotive, Philips, and ZF — accounted for approximately 40% of our net sales in the aggregate'
  • LOWCustomerPhilips11%
    10-K Item 1: 'Philips| 11%| | *| | *'
  • LOWCustomerZF11%
    10-K Item 1: 'ZF| 11%| | 11%| | 13%'
  • MEDIUMProductautomotive end market46%
    10-K Item 1: 'Automotive| 46%| | 47%| | 46%'
  • MEDIUMGeographicoutside the United States
    10-K Item 1A: 'We derive a substantial majority of our revenues from our operations outside the United States, primarily in China, Mexico, Poland, Romania, and Thailand.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.9
Earnings History
3.3
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2M

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Ma Position
1.0
Volume
1.7
Macd
3.3
Rsi
3.5
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.9<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 62d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
39 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $21.89Resistance $27.21

Price Targets

$23
$29
A.Upside+20.2%
A.R:R2.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-04 (62d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KE stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $24.21 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.0); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 39, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $22.52. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the KE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $29.11 (+20.2% upside). Prior stop was $22.52. Stop-loss: $22.52.

What are the risks of investing in KE?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.0); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is KE overvalued or undervalued?

Kimball Electronics, Inc. trades at a P/E of 21.1 (forward 13.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about KE?

12 analysts cover KE with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $34.

What does Kimball Electronics, Inc. do?Kimball Electronics is a contract manufacturer providing electronics manufacturing services (EMS) and, through its new...

Kimball Electronics is a contract manufacturer providing electronics manufacturing services (EMS) and, through its new Kimball Solutions brand, contract development and manufacturing organization (CDMO) services spanning medical disposables, drug delivery devices, and precision molded plastics for automotive, medical, and industrial customers. The company generated 46% of fiscal 2026 net sales from automotive customers, 29% from medical, and 25% from industrial, with its top three customers -- Nexteer Automotive (18%), Philips (11%), and ZF (11%) -- together accounting for approximately 40% of

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