KBR has delivered four consecutive earnings beats and trades at an attractive forward multiple with 16.4% upside to the analyst target, but below-minimum business quality, a confirmed technical downtrend with a death cross, and heavy reliance on US government contracts limit new-money conviction despite the favorable price geometry.
Thesis pillars
- Perfect Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
- Government Customer Concentration↓Deteriorating
- Valuation And Upside↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 26, 2026
KBR, Inc. (KBR) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Industrials · Engineering & Construction
Wait for pullback to $39.20. Price sits above the model's entry target of $39.20; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (57.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
KBR delivers science, technology, and engineering services to U.S. and allied government agencies and commercial clients through Mission Technology Solutions (defense/intelligence) and Sustainable Technology Solutions (proprietary energy process technologies). The U.S.... Read more
Wait for pullback to $39.20. Price sits above the model's entry target of $39.20; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (57.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 91. Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. Score 5.7/10, high confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
About KBR, Inc.
About KBR, Inc.
KBR's total backlog reached $16.9 billion at January 2, 2026, up from $16.6 billion a year earlier, with 36% expected to convert to revenue in fiscal 2026. The U.S. government generated $4.4 billion, or 57% of consolidated revenues in fiscal 2025, with an additional 9% from U.K. government contracts. The company operates through two segments — Mission Technology Solutions and Sustainable Technology Solutions — following a segment realignment effective for fiscal 2025.
KBR earns revenue through two distinct models. Mission Technology Solutions (MTS) provides full life-cycle engineering, systems integration, C5ISR, cyber, space domain awareness, and logistics services under predominantly cost-reimbursable contracts for U.S. DoW agencies including the Army, Navy, Air Force, Space Force, Missile Defense Agency, and National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, alongside NASA, the U.K. Ministry of Defence, and the Royal Australian Air Force. Cost-reimbursable contracts pass most project risk to the customer in exchange for a fixed or incentive fee, providing revenue stability but limited margin upside relative to fixed-price work. Sustainable Technology Solutions licenses more than 85 proprietary process technologies across ammonia/syngas, chemicals/petrochemicals, clean refining, and circular economy verticals, supplemented by advisory and asset optimization services for commercial energy clients worldwide. The June 2025 unexpected termination of HomeSafe's Global Household Goods Contract by U.S. Transportation Command — in which KBR held a 72% interest — resulted in all HomeSafe operations ceasing by January 2, 2026, illustrating how single-contract award concentration may impact financial results.
Show full overview
KBR announced in September 2025 its intention to spin off Mission Technology Solutions into a separate, U.S. publicly-traded company, targeting completion in the second half of fiscal 2026. The transaction is conditioned on receipt of a favorable IRS private letter ruling or legal opinion on tax treatment, the effectiveness of a Form 10 registration statement with the SEC, and satisfactory completion of financing. If the spin-off proceeds, the remaining Sustainable Technology Solutions entity will shed the U.S. government revenue concentration that currently represents 57% of consolidated revenues, fundamentally reshaping the company's risk profile.
See also: Industrials · Engineering & Construction
From KBR, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-28Recent Developments — KBR, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Activist Engine Capital Urges Government Contractor KBR to Explore a Sale - WSJ — WSJ negative
- NEWS KBR (KBR) Q3 earnings report preview: what to look for - StockStory — StockStory neutral
- NEWS KBR (KBR) Q3 earnings report preview: what to look for - TradingView — TradingView neutral
- NEWS Is KBR (KBR) stock undervalued compared to peers | 3.3% EPS beat on strong quarterly revenue results - Geographic Trends — UBND thành phố Hải Phòng positive
- NEWS Why KBR (KBR) is Poised to Beat Earnings Estimates Again - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
Generated 2026-10-28T11:43:56Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerU.S. government57%10-K Item 1A: 'Revenues from the U.S. government represented 57% of our total consolidated revenues for fiscal 2025.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $39.20. Price sits above the model's entry target of $39.20; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (57.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 91. Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. Analyst target $38.40 reached (−4.5%), stop $37.04 (−8.6%), A.R:R -0.3:1. Score 5.7/10, high confidence.
Analyst target $38.40 reached (−4.5% from $40.23); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $38.40 reached (−4.5%), stop $37.04 (−8.6%), A.R:R -0.3:1. Stop-loss: $37.04.
Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (57.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1).
KBR, Inc. trades at a P/E of 12.1 (forward 9.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
13 analysts cover KBR with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $44.
What does KBR, Inc. do?KBR delivers science, technology, and engineering services to U.S. and allied government agencies and commercial...
KBR delivers science, technology, and engineering services to U.S. and allied government agencies and commercial clients through Mission Technology Solutions (defense/intelligence) and Sustainable Technology Solutions (proprietary energy process technologies). The U.S. government represented 57% of fiscal 2025 revenues; KBR held $16.9 billion in backlog at January 2, 2026.