KB Home (KBH) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the KBH stock price target?

Take-profit $56.40 (+6.1% upside). Target $56.40 (+6.1%), stop $50.12 (−6.1%), A.R:R -1.0:1.

Q: Is KBH overvalued or undervalued?

KB Home trades at a P/E of 10.1 (forward 11.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Overall verdict: Hold.

Q: What do analysts say about KBH?

22 analysts cover KBH with a consensus score of 3.2/5. Average price target: $55.

Recovery setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-04-30

Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $53.16, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: California; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

$53.16+6.1% A.UpsideScore 4.3/10#13 of 16 Residential Construction

Stop $50.12Target $56.40(resistance)A.R:R -1.0:1

Analyst target$55.46+4.3%13 analysts

$56.40our TP

$53.16price

$55.46mean

$43

$77

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $53.16, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: California; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 4.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 54d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards

Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)

Earnings estimates trending UP

Attractive valuation

Risks

Concentration risk — Geographic: California

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Weak overall score: 4.3/10

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.1

P/E (Fwd)11.6

Mkt Cap$3.3B

EV/EBITDA9.8

Profit Mgn6.0%

ROE8.9%

Rev Growth-22.6%

Beta1.50

Dividend1.91%

Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C2.20bearish

IV52%elevated

Max Pain$30-43.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

HIGHGeographicCalifornia
10-K Item 1A: 'Adverse conditions in California would have particular significance to our business. We generate the highest proportion of our revenues from and make significant inventory investments in our California operations.'
MEDIUMGeographicCalifornia, Florida, Nevada and Texas
10-K Item 1A: 'our business is presently concentrated in California, Florida, Nevada and Texas'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

2026-01-28Item 5.02MEDIUM
Robert V. McGibney promoted from President/COO to President/CEO effective March 1, 2026. Jeffrey T. Mezger transitions from Chairman/CEO to Executive Chairman, continuing as the most senior executive officer with a significant management role. Named successor with clean handoff.
SEC filing →
2026-02-26Item 5.02LOW
Amendment (8-K/A) to January 22, 2026 Form 8-K disclosing McGibney's compensation as new President/CEO: base salary $1M/year, target annual incentive 225% of base salary. No new personnel changes.
SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value7.315%1.09

Quality4.015%0.60

Growth0.015%0.00

Momentum4.110%0.41

Sentiment6.510%0.65

Insider Activity5.010%0.50

Peer Rank2.610%0.26

Technical Setup5.15%0.26

Risk Profile4.35%0.21

Catalyst7.05%0.35

Overall (Σ contributions)4.33

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Revenue shrinking — -22.6% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth

0.0

Earnings Growth

0.0

Declining revenue: -23%

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank

0.6

Quality Rank

2.2

Value Rank

7.5

GatesMomentum 4.1<4.5A.R:R -1.0=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 54d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive

RSI

57 · Neutral

↑ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $48.17Resistance $57.55

Price Targets

$50

$56

A.Upside+6.1%

A.R:R-1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-9.2% upside)

! NEWS_MOD=+1: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING

! Momentum score 4.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

3/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-06-23 (54d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is KBH stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $53.16, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: California; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $56.40 (+6.1%), stop $50.12 (−6.1%), A.R:R -1.0:1. Score 4.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the KBH stock price target?

Take-profit target: $56.40 (+6.1% upside). Target $56.40 (+6.1%), stop $50.12 (−6.1%), A.R:R -1.0:1. Stop-loss: $50.12.

What are the risks of investing in KBH?

Concentration risk — Geographic: California; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak overall score: 4.3/10.

Is KBH overvalued or undervalued?

KB Home trades at a P/E of 10.1 (forward 11.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about KBH?

22 analysts cover KBH with a consensus score of 3.2/5. Average price target: $55.

What does KB Home do?KB Home is one of the largest US homebuilders with nearly 70 years of history and over 700,000 homes built, operating...

KB Home is one of the largest US homebuilders with nearly 70 years of history and over 700,000 homes built, operating in 9 states and 49 major markets primarily for first-time and first move-up buyers. Homebuilding operations account for 99.6% of total revenues, with concentration in California, Texas, Florida, and Nevada. The company's Built to Order model lets buyers personalize structural and design choices.