Value
5.4/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 4.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.8 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 26.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.03
JMKE · Why this verdict
Why Jersey Mike's Subs (JMKE) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroCAUTIOUS
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Jersey Mike's is a high-quality restaurant franchisor (Piotroski 9/9) with 29.0% upside to the analyst target, but heavy insider selling of 2.08% of market cap, a bearish put/call ratio and a recent earnings miss argue for caution.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The business is high quality, with a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, strong gross margin and a strong current ratio, and it carries conservative debt levels. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score stays at 8 or higher and quality score stays above 7 over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterNet margin scores only 2.8/10, so reported quality may rely on balance sheet strength rather than profitability. | ||
Upside to the $23.59 analyst target is 29.0% against 12.7% downside, a reward-to-risk of about 2.3. Estimated upside | Price moves toward the $23.59 target as earnings and growth firm up. | →Stable |
| CounterWith only about one quarter of earnings history, analyst targets rest on limited evidence, and a recent miss has already hit the stock. | ||
Insiders sold $120.8M, equal to 2.079% of market cap, a heavy selling signal despite institutions accumulating. Insider breakdown | Insider selling tapers to under 0.5% of market cap over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterSelling soon after a listing is often lock-up expiry or sponsor liquidity rather than a verdict on the business. | ||
Options positioning is bearish with a put/call ratio of 5.50 and implied volatility of 64%. Key risks | Put/call ratio falls below 2.0 over the coming quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterHeavy put buying can be hedging by large holders, and rising on-balance volume indicates accumulation. | ||
The most recent report was an earnings miss (surprise of -162%), with an average of 0 beats against 1 miss on record. Miss count | The company beats estimates at the next report in about 120 days. | ↑Improving |
| CounterOnly one quarter of earnings history exists, and a consumer cyclical sector headwind (-1.5 modifier) weighs on restaurants. | ||
The business is high quality, with a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, strong gross margin and a strong current ratio, and it carries conservative debt levels.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score stays at 8 or higher and quality score stays above 7 over 12 months.
CounterNet margin scores only 2.8/10, so reported quality may rely on balance sheet strength rather than profitability.
Upside to the $23.59 analyst target is 29.0% against 12.7% downside, a reward-to-risk of about 2.3.
→StableEstimated upside
- Expectation
- Price moves toward the $23.59 target as earnings and growth firm up.
CounterWith only about one quarter of earnings history, analyst targets rest on limited evidence, and a recent miss has already hit the stock.
Insiders sold $120.8M, equal to 2.079% of market cap, a heavy selling signal despite institutions accumulating.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Insider selling tapers to under 0.5% of market cap over the next 12 months.
CounterSelling soon after a listing is often lock-up expiry or sponsor liquidity rather than a verdict on the business.
Options positioning is bearish with a put/call ratio of 5.50 and implied volatility of 64%.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- Put/call ratio falls below 2.0 over the coming quarters.
CounterHeavy put buying can be hedging by large holders, and rising on-balance volume indicates accumulation.
The most recent report was an earnings miss (surprise of -162%), with an average of 0 beats against 1 miss on record.
↑ImprovingMiss count
- Expectation
- The company beats estimates at the next report in about 120 days.
CounterOnly one quarter of earnings history exists, and a consumer cyclical sector headwind (-1.5 modifier) weighs on restaurants.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.7/10data confidence 86%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 9.2 |
| Op margin | 8.4 |
| Net margin | 2.8 |
| Current ratio | 9.4 |
| Moat | 6.6 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
- ▸High-quality business
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.0 |
Momentum
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 0.9 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
Sentiment
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 8.8 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.40 (n=1)
- ▸Analyst upside: 34%
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $120,770,500 (1.914% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.0 |
| quality rank | 5.7 |
| growth rank | 6.0 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.2 |
| support resistance | 3.0 |
| 52w position | 5.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 7.8 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| debt equity | 8.5 |
- ▸High IV: 93%
Catalyst
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.4>=5.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:108d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:1.4<1.5@spot
- INSIDER:1.91%=EXTREME
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.36
Upside
+20.4%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.4>=5.5. Top dim: Quality at 7.7; weakest: Catalyst at 3.0. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 7.7, Sentiment at 7.7, and Momentum at 6.4; the weakest are Catalyst at 3.0, Technical at 4.0, and Growth at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.36 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Quality Balance Sheet
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6 from current 9 of 9.
- P2Analyst Target Upside
Trip ifPrice falls below the $17.01 stop-loss level.
- P3Heavy Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds 5% of market cap from current 2.08%.
- P4Bearish Options Positioning
Trip ifPut/call ratio exceeds 8.0 from current 5.50.
- P5Recent Earnings Miss
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.