Value
6.4/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 5.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 21.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.03
JMKE · Why this verdict
Why Jersey Mike's Subs (JMKE) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
JMKE is a high-quality restaurant franchisor (quality 7.1, Piotroski 9/9) with 51.4% analyst-target upside, but collapsing momentum and heavy insider share disposals mean the engine says avoid for now.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality scores 7.1 with a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 and an operating-margin score of 10.0, marking it as a high-quality business. Quality breakdown | Quality should stay above 7.0 and the Piotroski F-Score at 8/9 or better over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterNet margin scores 0.0, so headline quality may rest on operating strength that does not reach shareholders after interest and other costs. | ||
The analyst target implies 51.4% upside against 11.6% estimated downside, an asymmetry ratio of 4.41 that clears the engine's 1.5 bar. Bull case | Price should close at least half the gap to the 25.08 analyst target if estimates hold. | →Stable |
| CounterThe target already carries a 10% haircut yet remains far above price, which may signal stale estimates rather than real upside. | ||
Momentum scores 1.9, below the engine's 4.5 threshold, with RSI at 5, a price below the 200-day average and falling on-balance volume. Momentum breakdown | Momentum should recover above 4.5 as selling exhausts and price reclaims the 200-day average. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAn RSI of 5 with distribution volume shows forced or informed selling that can continue well past oversold readings. | ||
Insiders show a bearish signal, with net share disposals of 69.3M over 90 days and 10 sells against 10 buys. Insider | Net insider share activity should move toward zero or positive, ending the bearish signal within two quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterLarge share-count changes at a recent listing can reflect lockup expirations or sponsor distributions rather than a negative view of the business. | ||
Quality scores 7.1 with a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 and an operating-margin score of 10.0, marking it as a high-quality business.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality should stay above 7.0 and the Piotroski F-Score at 8/9 or better over 12 months.
CounterNet margin scores 0.0, so headline quality may rest on operating strength that does not reach shareholders after interest and other costs.
The analyst target implies 51.4% upside against 11.6% estimated downside, an asymmetry ratio of 4.41 that clears the engine's 1.5 bar.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- Price should close at least half the gap to the 25.08 analyst target if estimates hold.
CounterThe target already carries a 10% haircut yet remains far above price, which may signal stale estimates rather than real upside.
Momentum scores 1.9, below the engine's 4.5 threshold, with RSI at 5, a price below the 200-day average and falling on-balance volume.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum should recover above 4.5 as selling exhausts and price reclaims the 200-day average.
CounterAn RSI of 5 with distribution volume shows forced or informed selling that can continue well past oversold readings.
Insiders show a bearish signal, with net share disposals of 69.3M over 90 days and 10 sells against 10 buys.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Net insider share activity should move toward zero or positive, ending the bearish signal within two quarters.
CounterLarge share-count changes at a recent listing can reflect lockup expirations or sponsor distributions rather than a negative view of the business.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.1/10data confidence 86%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 9.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 6.5 |
| Moat | 7.2 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.0 |
Momentum
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 9.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.5 |
| Volume | 2.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
Sentiment
8.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.8 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 9.8 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.55 (n=1)
- ▸Analyst upside: 62%
Insider
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $1,513,802,314 (28.436% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.0 |
| quality rank | 1.3 |
| growth rank | 6.7 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.7 |
| support resistance | 7.2 |
| 52w position | 3.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 7.3 |
| volatility | 1.4 |
| put call | 9.2 |
| implied vol | 2.8 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| debt equity | 8.6 |
- ▸High IV: 63%
- ▸Above max pain $12
Catalyst
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:5.2>=1.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.8<4.5
- INSIDER:28.44%=EXTREME
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
5.17
Upside
+46.1%
Downside
8.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.5 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Sentiment at 8.3) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.8<4.5, INSIDER:28.44%=EXTREME) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 5.17 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 8.3, Quality at 7.1, and Value at 6.4; the weakest are Momentum at 3.8, Peer rank at 4.3, and Catalyst at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 5.17 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Quality Restaurant Franchise
Trip ifQuality score falls below 6.0 from the current 7.1.
- P2Analyst Upside Favorable Asymmetry
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio falls below 1.5 from the current 4.41.
- P3Capitulation Momentum Failure
Trip ifMomentum score rises above 4.5 from the current 1.9.
- P4Heavy Insider Share Disposals
Trip ifNet insider share disposals over 90 days drop to less than 10M shares from the current 69.3M.