Value
5.5/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 5.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 28.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.03
JMKE · Why this verdict
Why Jersey Mike's Subs (JMKE) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
JMKE combines strong balance-sheet quality with a growth-adjusted cheap valuation, but momentum and asymmetry gates have both failed, options positioning shows an elevated put/call skew, and insiders have been net sellers on balance.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Business quality is strong, with a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9 and a solid current ratio of 5.5. Quality breakdown | The quality score should hold at or above 6.0 with the Piotroski F-Score remaining strong over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterOperating and net margins remain thin (3.7 and 1.4 in component terms), so the quality strength is more balance-sheet-driven than profitability-driven. | ||
The value notes cite a low PEG of 0.04 despite a 30.7x forward P/E, framing the stock as inexpensive relative to its growth. Valuation breakdown | The PEG ratio should stay low and the value score (currently 6.2) should hold or improve over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRevenue growth is modest at a 5.2 growth-dimension score, so the growth side of the PEG calculation may not be as durable as the ratio implies. | ||
Both the momentum gate (2.8 vs. a 4.5 threshold) and the asymmetry gate (1.32 vs. a 1.5 threshold) failed, with the setup described as range-bound and falling on-balance volume. Engine gate (failed) | Momentum should recover above 4.5 and the asymmetry ratio should clear 1.5 over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterStrong technical scores (bollinger 5.9, support/resistance 6.4, 52-week position 8.0) suggest the broader technical picture is not as weak as the failed gates alone imply. | ||
The risk notes flag an elevated put/call ratio of 1.67, indicating options positioning skewed toward downside protection or bearish bets. Risk breakdown | The put/call ratio should normalize back toward parity over the next few months if the bearish options positioning was a temporary hedge. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA low implied-volatility risk component (4.4) suggests the market is not pricing significant near-term turmoil despite the elevated put/call skew. | ||
Insiders have been net sellers on balance (10 buys vs. 10 sells but a large net negative share count) with the engine flagging insider selling severity as moderate, producing a bearish insider signal. Insider transaction read | The insider signal should shift back toward neutral without further material net selling over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe insider notes also flag institutions accumulating, suggesting the individual insider selling may not reflect broader ownership trends. | ||
Business quality is strong, with a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9 and a solid current ratio of 5.5.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The quality score should hold at or above 6.0 with the Piotroski F-Score remaining strong over the next 12 months.
CounterOperating and net margins remain thin (3.7 and 1.4 in component terms), so the quality strength is more balance-sheet-driven than profitability-driven.
The value notes cite a low PEG of 0.04 despite a 30.7x forward P/E, framing the stock as inexpensive relative to its growth.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The PEG ratio should stay low and the value score (currently 6.2) should hold or improve over the next 12 months.
CounterRevenue growth is modest at a 5.2 growth-dimension score, so the growth side of the PEG calculation may not be as durable as the ratio implies.
Both the momentum gate (2.8 vs. a 4.5 threshold) and the asymmetry gate (1.32 vs. a 1.5 threshold) failed, with the setup described as range-bound and falling on-balance volume.
↑ImprovingEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Momentum should recover above 4.5 and the asymmetry ratio should clear 1.5 over the next 12 months.
CounterStrong technical scores (bollinger 5.9, support/resistance 6.4, 52-week position 8.0) suggest the broader technical picture is not as weak as the failed gates alone imply.
The risk notes flag an elevated put/call ratio of 1.67, indicating options positioning skewed toward downside protection or bearish bets.
↓DeterioratingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- The put/call ratio should normalize back toward parity over the next few months if the bearish options positioning was a temporary hedge.
CounterA low implied-volatility risk component (4.4) suggests the market is not pricing significant near-term turmoil despite the elevated put/call skew.
Insiders have been net sellers on balance (10 buys vs. 10 sells but a large net negative share count) with the engine flagging insider selling severity as moderate, producing a bearish insider signal.
↓DeterioratingInsider transaction read
- Expectation
- The insider signal should shift back toward neutral without further material net selling over the next 12 months.
CounterThe insider notes also flag institutions accumulating, suggesting the individual insider selling may not reflect broader ownership trends.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.1/10data confidence 86%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 9.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 6.5 |
| Moat | 7.2 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.0 |
Momentum
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 6.7 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 3.5 |
| Volume | 4.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
Sentiment
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.2 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 8.5 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 29%
Insider
3.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 5.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $1,513,802,314 (29.948% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.0 |
| quality rank | 1.2 |
| growth rank | 6.4 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.5 |
| support resistance | 6.0 |
| 52w position | 7.4 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 8.4 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.6 |
| debt equity | 8.6 |
| news risk | 4.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.44
- ▸High IV: 77%
Catalyst
8.0/10data confidence 25%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| news activity | 8.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.5>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.5>=1.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:EARNINGS:0.60
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- INSIDER:29.95%=EXTREME
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.50
Upside
+15.9%
Downside
10.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.3 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Catalyst at 8.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( INSIDER:29.95%=EXTREME) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.50 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 8.0, Sentiment at 7.4, and Quality at 7.1; the weakest are Insider at 3.5, Risk (lower is worse) at 3.6, and Peer rank at 4.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.50 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Quality Perfect Piotroski
Trip ifQuality score falls below 4.0 from the current 6.2.
- P2Cheap Growth Adjusted Valuation
Trip ifPEG ratio rises above 1.0, up from the current 0.04.
- P3Momentum Asymmetry Gates Failed
Trip ifMomentum score exceeds 4.5, clearing the engine's gate threshold, from the current 2.8.
- P4Elevated Put Call Hedging Risk
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 1.0, reversing the current elevated 1.67 reading.
- P5Insider Selling Moderate Severity
Trip ifNet insider share sales exceed 100 million shares within a 90-day window, deepening the current net-selling trend.