Value
6.8/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 5.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 23.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.03
JMKE · Why this verdict
Why Jersey Mike's Subs (JMKE) is rated DATA_ISSUE
Updated
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VerdictDATA_ISSUE
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Jersey Mike's combines a near-perfect Piotroski quality score and strong growth with a rich forward earnings multiple, a large insider share-count reduction, and options positioning that leans defensively bearish.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company posts a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, signaling strong fundamental quality across profitability, leverage, and efficiency metrics. Quality breakdown | The Piotroski F-Score should hold at 8 or 9 out of 9 over the next several quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterPiotroski scores are backward-looking and can decay quickly for newly public companies once one-time IPO-related balance-sheet boosts roll off. | ||
Jersey Mike's trades at a rich forward P/E of about 37.5x, though the PEG ratio of 0.06 suggests the market may still be underpricing growth relative to that multiple. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E should compress toward 25x or below as forward earnings catch up, or the PEG ratio should stay under 0.5 if earnings growth accelerates enough to justify the premium. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA 37.5x forward multiple on a recently public restaurant franchisor leaves little room for error, and any same-store-sales slowdown could trigger a sharp re-rating lower. | ||
Insider activity reads bearish, with a net reduction of roughly 63.8 million shares over the past 90 days against 10 buy transactions and 5 sell transactions. Insider | The insider signal should shift toward neutral as net share activity stabilizes closer to zero. | →Stable |
| CounterFor a newly public company, large negative net-share figures often reflect scheduled early-investor or founder distributions rather than a fresh bearish signal, and 10 buy transactions against 5 sells is not obviously bearish on its own. | ||
Options positioning shows an elevated put/call ratio of 3.15, indicating the market is paying up for downside protection. Risk breakdown | The put/call ratio should normalize toward 1.0 as hedging pressure eases. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA high put/call ratio without accompanying open-interest or volume context may reflect a data-quality artifact from thin options liquidity rather than a genuine bearish tilt. | ||
Analyst coverage is light, with a coverage score of just 1.0, which the engine says dampens the reliability of the sentiment signal. Sentiment breakdown | Analyst coverage should broaden as more sell-side firms initiate on the stock, sharpening the sentiment read. | ↑Improving |
| CounterCoverage may stay thin for an extended period post-IPO regardless of fundamentals, keeping sentiment signal quality low independent of the actual investment case. | ||
The company posts a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, signaling strong fundamental quality across profitability, leverage, and efficiency metrics.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Piotroski F-Score should hold at 8 or 9 out of 9 over the next several quarters.
CounterPiotroski scores are backward-looking and can decay quickly for newly public companies once one-time IPO-related balance-sheet boosts roll off.
Jersey Mike's trades at a rich forward P/E of about 37.5x, though the PEG ratio of 0.06 suggests the market may still be underpricing growth relative to that multiple.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E should compress toward 25x or below as forward earnings catch up, or the PEG ratio should stay under 0.5 if earnings growth accelerates enough to justify the premium.
CounterA 37.5x forward multiple on a recently public restaurant franchisor leaves little room for error, and any same-store-sales slowdown could trigger a sharp re-rating lower.
Insider activity reads bearish, with a net reduction of roughly 63.8 million shares over the past 90 days against 10 buy transactions and 5 sell transactions.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- The insider signal should shift toward neutral as net share activity stabilizes closer to zero.
CounterFor a newly public company, large negative net-share figures often reflect scheduled early-investor or founder distributions rather than a fresh bearish signal, and 10 buy transactions against 5 sells is not obviously bearish on its own.
Options positioning shows an elevated put/call ratio of 3.15, indicating the market is paying up for downside protection.
↑ImprovingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- The put/call ratio should normalize toward 1.0 as hedging pressure eases.
CounterA high put/call ratio without accompanying open-interest or volume context may reflect a data-quality artifact from thin options liquidity rather than a genuine bearish tilt.
Analyst coverage is light, with a coverage score of just 1.0, which the engine says dampens the reliability of the sentiment signal.
↑ImprovingSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- Analyst coverage should broaden as more sell-side firms initiate on the stock, sharpening the sentiment read.
CounterCoverage may stay thin for an extended period post-IPO regardless of fundamentals, keeping sentiment signal quality low independent of the actual investment case.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.2/10data confidence 86%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 9.2 |
| Op margin | 3.7 |
| Net margin | 1.4 |
| Current ratio | 5.5 |
| Moat | 7.2 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
5.2/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.2 |
Momentum
5.0/10data confidence 50%Sentiment
5.9/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.9 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (1.0) — signal dampened
Insider
4.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 6.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $1,393,031,814 (26.229% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.0 |
| quality rank | 3.4 |
| growth rank | 6.3 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
5.0/10data confidence 50%Risk (lower is worse)
8.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| put call | 9.8 |
| implied vol | 3.4 |
| debt equity | 8.6 |
Catalyst
5.0/10data confidence 50%How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
No current price available — cannot compute entry, target, or stop. Upstream data source (Alpaca/yfinance) did not return a price for this run.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L0:DATA_ISSUE_NO_PRICEPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.0>=4.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- INSIDER:26.23%=EXTREME
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
0.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The DATA_ISSUE verdict reflects the INSIDER gate's 26.23%=EXTREME outcome against Risk (lower is worse) at 8.0 and asymmetric R:R of 0.00.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 8.0, Value at 6.8, and Quality at 6.2; the weakest are Insider at 4.0, Peer rank at 4.6, and Catalyst at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Forward Multiple
Trip ifForward P/E falls below 20x from the current 37.5x, or PEG ratio rises above 1.0 from 0.06.
- P2Strong Piotroski Quality Signal
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6 out of 9 from the current 9.
- P3Large Insider Share Count Reduction
Trip ifNet insider share activity rises above 0 shares (net buying) for 2 consecutive 90-day windows, versus the current -63.8 million shares.
- P4Elevated Put Call Hedging
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 1.0 from the current 3.15.
- P5Light Analyst Coverage Dampens Signal
Trip ifAnalyst coverage count rises above 5 analysts, up from the current light-coverage read of 1.0.