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Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Capital Markets

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $47.73 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.4): -1.5.

Jefferies Financial Group is a U.S.-headquartered global investment banking and capital markets firm with two segments: Investment Banking & Capital Markets (advisory, underwriting, equities, fixed income, prime brokerage) and Asset Management. Founded in 1962, it primarily... Read more

$47.73+2.2% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#16 of 40 Capital Markets
Stop $44.37Target $48.53(resistance)A.R:R -0.1:1
Analyst target$54.00+13.1%6 analysts
$48.53our TP
$47.73price
$54.00mean
$42
$74

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $47.73 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.4): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 60. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 55d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 3.4): -1.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.9
P/E (Fwd)10.7
Mkt Cap$9.7B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn23.0%
ROE
Rev Growth26.6%
Beta
Dividend3.37%
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.53bullish
IV51%elevated
Max Pain$20-58.1% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
2.2
Bollinger
3.3
52w Position
3.6
GatesA.R:R -0.1=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 6.0>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 55d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
60 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $40.00Resistance $49.52

Price Targets

$44
$49
A.Upside+1.7%
A.R:R-0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-1.0% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-24 (55d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is JEF stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $47.73 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.4): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 60. Prior stop was $44.37. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the JEF stock price target?

Take-profit target: $48.53 (+2.2% upside). Prior stop was $44.37. Stop-loss: $44.37.

What are the risks of investing in JEF?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 3.4): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is JEF overvalued or undervalued?

Jefferies Financial Group Inc. trades at a P/E of 15.9 (forward 10.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about JEF?

10 analysts cover JEF with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $54.

What does Jefferies Financial Group Inc. do?Jefferies Financial Group is a U.S.-headquartered global investment banking and capital markets firm with two segments:...

Jefferies Financial Group is a U.S.-headquartered global investment banking and capital markets firm with two segments: Investment Banking & Capital Markets (advisory, underwriting, equities, fixed income, prime brokerage) and Asset Management. Founded in 1962, it primarily serves corporations, institutional investors, and sponsors across the Americas, Europe, Middle East, and Asia-Pacific.

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