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JEFJefferies Financial Group Inc.Sell5.8·$62.02+0.11%
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Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Capital Markets

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $62.02 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.4): -1.5.

Jefferies Financial Group is a U.S.-headquartered investment banking and capital markets firm with two segments: Investment Banking and Capital Markets (advisory, underwriting, equities and fixed income trading, prime brokerage) and Asset Management (alternative investment... Read more

$62.02+0.3% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#23 of 40 Capital Markets
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield2.58%(5y avg 2.85%)Payout53.69%sustainable
Stop $57.92Target $62.18(resistance)A.R:R -0.8:1
Analyst target$62.17+0.2%6 analysts
$62.18our TP
$62.02price
$62.17mean
$50
$87

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $62.02 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.4): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 83. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst cluster(6), semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Jefferies Financial Group Inc.

About Jefferies Financial Group Inc.

Jefferies Financial Group operates two reportable segments: Investment Banking and Capital Markets, spanning advisory, equity and debt underwriting, equities and fixed income sales and trading, and prime brokerage; and Asset Management, providing alternative investment strategies to pension funds, insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds, and endowments globally. At November 30, 2025, the company had 7,787 employees, with 50% in the Americas, 36% in Europe and the Middle East, and 14% in Asia-Pacific. Jefferies LLC holds Primary Dealer designation for U.S. government securities.

Jefferies earns revenue through advisory fees (M&A, restructuring, private capital advisory), underwriting commissions (equity and debt), trading spreads from principal activity in fixed income and equities, and management fees from alternative asset strategies. Jefferies LLC is the designated broker-dealer examined by FINRA; Jefferies Financial Services Inc. is registered as an SEC-designated swap dealer and holds the NFA as DSRO for its CFTC swap dealer activities. A strategic alliance with Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group—whose subsidiary SMBC owned 15.7% of Jefferies' common stock at November 30, 2025—expands joint coverage in European and Middle Eastern syndicated loans and, planned for January 2027, a Japan-based joint venture for wholesale equity research, sales, and trading. Corporate lending is conducted through Jefferies Finance, a 50/50 joint venture with Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance Company, while Berkadia, a joint venture with Berkshire Hathaway, handles commercial real estate loan origination and servicing for U.S. government agency programs.

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Jefferies operates under a multi-regulator framework in the United States: Jefferies LLC is examined by FINRA; Jefferies Financial Services Inc. falls under SEC jurisdiction as an SBS dealer and NFA oversight as a CFTC swap dealer; and municipal securities activities are governed by the MSRB. As a holding company, Jefferies depends on dividends and other payments from these regulated subsidiaries, many of which face legal restrictions on capital upstreaming that could constrain group-level liquidity. Any regulatory action, expanded capital requirements, or new supervisory directives applied to the broker-dealer subsidiaries could impair the parent's access to operating cash.

See also: Financial Services · Capital Markets

From Jefferies Financial Group Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-17

Recent Developments — Jefferies Financial Group Inc.

Generated 2026-06-17T08:36:51Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jun 24, 20268d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong growth profile
Recent Analyst Cluster(6) detected in news
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 3.4): -1.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.8
P/E (Fwd)13.6
Mkt Cap$12.7B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn23.0%
ROE
Rev Growth26.6%
Beta
Dividend2.58%
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.90neutral
IV55%elevated
Max Pain$80+29.0% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.6
Support Resistance
1.1
Gap
5.0
52w Position
7.9
GatesA.R:R -0.8=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 8d<=14d (soft)Momentum 6.9>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST CLUSTER(6)SEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
83 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $50.81Resistance $63.45

Price Targets

$58
$62
A.Upside+0.3%
A.R:R-0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-12.8% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-24 (8d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is JEF stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $62.02 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.4): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 83. Prior stop was $57.92. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the JEF stock price target?

Take-profit target: $62.18 (+0.3% upside). Prior stop was $57.92. Stop-loss: $57.92.

What are the risks of investing in JEF?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 3.4): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is JEF overvalued or undervalued?

Jefferies Financial Group Inc. trades at a P/E of 20.8 (forward 13.6). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about JEF?

10 analysts cover JEF with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $62.

What does Jefferies Financial Group Inc. do?Jefferies Financial Group is a U.S.-headquartered investment banking and capital markets firm with two segments:...

Jefferies Financial Group is a U.S.-headquartered investment banking and capital markets firm with two segments: Investment Banking and Capital Markets (advisory, underwriting, equities and fixed income trading, prime brokerage) and Asset Management (alternative investment strategies). The company had 7,787 employees globally at November 30, 2025, holds Primary Dealer designation for U.S. government securities, and maintains a strategic alliance with SMBC Group, which owns 15.7% of common stock.

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