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Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Capital Markets

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $52.23 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0).

Jefferies is a U.S.-headquartered global investment banking and capital markets firm providing advisory, underwriting, equities, fixed income, and asset management services to public companies, private companies, institutional investors, and government entities. With 7,787... Read more

$52.23+1.5% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#19 of 40 Capital Markets
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield3.06%(5y avg 2.84%)Payout53.69%sustainable
Stop $48.73Target $52.63(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1
Analyst target$53.67+2.8%6 analysts
$52.63our TP
$52.23price
$53.67mean
$42
$72

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $52.23 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 70. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 38d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and clean insider activity. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Jefferies Financial Group Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0)
Leverage penalty (D/E 3.4): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.5
P/E (Fwd)11.8
Mkt Cap$10.7B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn23.0%
ROE
Rev Growth26.6%
Beta
Dividend3.06%
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
2.1
Bollinger
2.5
52w Position
4.9
Gap
6.0
GatesA.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEINSIDER 2.90%=EXTREMEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 6.2>=5.5No SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 38d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
70 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $44.62Resistance $53.70

Price Targets

$49
$53
A.Upside+0.8%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-9.9% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside
! Insider activity: 2.90%=extreme

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-24 (38d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is JEF stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $52.23 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 70. Prior stop was $48.73. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the JEF stock price target?

Take-profit target: $52.63 (+1.5% upside). Prior stop was $48.73. Stop-loss: $48.73.

What are the risks of investing in JEF?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0); Leverage penalty (D/E 3.4): -1.5.

Is JEF overvalued or undervalued?

Jefferies Financial Group Inc. trades at a P/E of 17.5 (forward 11.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about JEF?

10 analysts cover JEF with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $54.

What does Jefferies Financial Group Inc. do?Jefferies is a U.S.-headquartered global investment banking and capital markets firm providing advisory, underwriting,...

Jefferies is a U.S.-headquartered global investment banking and capital markets firm providing advisory, underwriting, equities, fixed income, and asset management services to public companies, private companies, institutional investors, and government entities. With 7,787 employees distributed 50% Americas, 36% EMEA, and 14% Asia-Pacific, it generates revenues from transaction fees, trading spreads, and asset management. SMBC Group owns approximately 15.7% of common stock on an as-converted basis.

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