Value
8.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.4 |
| P/S | 9.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 6.9 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.5x
- ▸PEG: 1.04
- ▸Attractively valued
JEF · Why this verdict
Why Jefferies Financial Group (JEF) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score6.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Jefferies delivered 27% revenue growth year-over-year but trades with only 0.4% headroom to near-term resistance, RSI at 83, and an earnings report due in eight days—the growth narrative is intact but the entry geometry is unfavorable with 15% downside against near-zero upside.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue grew 27% year-over-year, reflecting strong momentum in the underlying capital markets business that could support further earnings expansion if the trajectory holds. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth remains above 15% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters, demonstrating that the expansion is durable rather than episodic. | →Stable |
| CounterTwo of the last four quarters ended in earnings misses, including the most recent at -21.35% below consensus, suggesting revenue strength is not consistently translating to bottom-line delivery; elevated leverage at a debt-to-equity of 3.4 amplifies both upside and any shortfall. | ||
The stock trades just below near-term resistance with only 0.4% of potential upside against 15% of defined downside, producing a risk/reward ratio of roughly 0.06-to-1 that makes this an unattractive point to initiate or add to a position. Price targets | Price pulls back toward $56 over the next quarter, improving the reward-to-risk ratio to above 1.5-to-1 and restoring a favorable entry geometry. | ↑Improving |
| CounterStrong on-balance volume and an above-200-MA position could drive prices through near-term resistance if the upcoming earnings report surprises positively, making the current level a launchpad rather than a ceiling. | ||
RSI at 83 places the stock in overbought territory alongside a flat or declining 200-day moving average slope, while implied volatility at 129% indicates the options market is pricing in a meaningful near-term move—conditions consistent with late-cycle distribution risk. Risk breakdown | RSI cools below 65 and implied volatility normalizes below 80% over the next quarter without a sharp price decline, indicating the overbought condition resolves by time rather than correction. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRecovering MACD and sustained on-balance volume accumulation suggest institutional participation remains intact; overbought readings can persist for weeks through an earnings catalyst. | ||
Two misses in the last four quarters, including the most recent at -21.35% below consensus, introduce meaningful uncertainty into the earnings cadence with a report due in eight days. Catalyst breakdown | The next two quarters deliver consecutive positive earnings surprises of at least 5%, restoring a consistent beat pattern. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterWhen the company beats, it does so substantially—26% and 20% in the two prior beats—suggesting the business can execute strongly under favorable conditions and that misses may reflect timing rather than structural weakness. | ||
Revenue grew 27% year-over-year, reflecting strong momentum in the underlying capital markets business that could support further earnings expansion if the trajectory holds.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth remains above 15% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters, demonstrating that the expansion is durable rather than episodic.
CounterTwo of the last four quarters ended in earnings misses, including the most recent at -21.35% below consensus, suggesting revenue strength is not consistently translating to bottom-line delivery; elevated leverage at a debt-to-equity of 3.4 amplifies both upside and any shortfall.
The stock trades just below near-term resistance with only 0.4% of potential upside against 15% of defined downside, producing a risk/reward ratio of roughly 0.06-to-1 that makes this an unattractive point to initiate or add to a position.
↑ImprovingPrice targets
- Expectation
- Price pulls back toward $56 over the next quarter, improving the reward-to-risk ratio to above 1.5-to-1 and restoring a favorable entry geometry.
CounterStrong on-balance volume and an above-200-MA position could drive prices through near-term resistance if the upcoming earnings report surprises positively, making the current level a launchpad rather than a ceiling.
RSI at 83 places the stock in overbought territory alongside a flat or declining 200-day moving average slope, while implied volatility at 129% indicates the options market is pricing in a meaningful near-term move—conditions consistent with late-cycle distribution risk.
↓DeterioratingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI cools below 65 and implied volatility normalizes below 80% over the next quarter without a sharp price decline, indicating the overbought condition resolves by time rather than correction.
CounterRecovering MACD and sustained on-balance volume accumulation suggest institutional participation remains intact; overbought readings can persist for weeks through an earnings catalyst.
Two misses in the last four quarters, including the most recent at -21.35% below consensus, introduce meaningful uncertainty into the earnings cadence with a report due in eight days.
↓DeterioratingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The next two quarters deliver consecutive positive earnings surprises of at least 5%, restoring a consistent beat pattern.
CounterWhen the company beats, it does so substantially—26% and 20% in the two prior beats—suggesting the business can execute strongly under favorable conditions and that misses may reflect timing rather than structural weakness.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.8 |
| ROA | 0.8 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 6.8 |
| Net margin | 5.4 |
| Current ratio | 6.8 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 35% YoY
Momentum
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 1.5 |
| Volume | 1.3 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 27, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 6.6 |
| Price target | 8.3 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 27%
Insider
6.6/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 9.0 |
| holder change | 5.7 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider buying — $318,717,006 (3.335% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.4 |
| quality rank | 3.8 |
| growth rank | 7.3 |
Technical
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.6 |
| support resistance | 9.4 |
| 52w position | 3.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.9 |
| days to cover | 6.9 |
| volatility | 2.6 |
| put call | 6.1 |
| implied vol | 4.5 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 5.0 |
| debt equity | 1.4 |
- ▸Above max pain $32
Catalyst
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.4 |
| dividend safety | 8.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Earnings in 4 days
- ▸Dividend: 3.4%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier -2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=-2Passed (4)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:3.2<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.3<1.5@spot
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:4d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.29
Upside
+10.2%
Downside
7.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.49>1.3
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Momentum at 3.2. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 8.0, and Technical at 7.2; the weakest are Momentum at 3.2, Risk (lower is worse) at 4.7, and Catalyst at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.29 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth 27pct
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2At Target Unfavorable Risk Reward
Trip ifUpside to the near-term price target expands to more than 10% for 4 consecutive weeks, implying a meaningful pullback or target upgrade that restores a favorable entry opportunity.
- P3Overbought With Elevated Hedging
Trip ifPrice rallies more than 15% above current levels while RSI sustains above 75 for 4 consecutive weeks, demonstrating the overbought condition is not resolving via mean reversion.
- P4Inconsistent Earnings Delivery
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds 5% for 2 consecutive quarters, restoring a consistent beat cadence.