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Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc (JAZZ) Stock Analysis

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $240.00, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Xywav (41.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: ESSDS central pharmacy.

Jazz Pharmaceuticals is a global biopharma focused on rare diseases, with key products in sleep disorders (Xywav, Xyrem), epilepsy (Epidiolex), and oncology (Rylaze, Zepzelca, Ziihera, Modeyso). Revenue comes from pharmaceutical product sales globally, with Xywav at 41%,... Read more

$240.00-1.5% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#23 of 157 Biotechnology
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield9.27%
Stop $223.93Target $233.78(resistance)A.R:R -0.6:1
Analyst target$241.76+0.7%17 analysts
$233.78our TP
$240.00price
$241.76mean
$188
$281

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $240.00, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Xywav (41.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: ESSDS central pharmacy. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Xywav (41.0%)
Concentration risk — Supplier: ESSDS central pharmacy
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)2086.8
P/E (Fwd)9.0
Mkt Cap$14.4B
EV/EBITDA8.4
Profit Mgn0.7%
ROE0.7%
Rev Growth19.1%
Beta0.27
DividendNone
Rating analysts24

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.51bearish
IV40%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductXywav41%
    10-K Item 1: 'In 2025, net product sales of Xywav were $1,657.0 million, which represented 41% of our total net product sales for the year.'
  • MEDIUMProductEpidiolex26%
    10-K Item 1: 'Net product sales of Epidiolex/Epidyolex in 2025 were $1,059.2 million, which represented 26% of our total net product sales for the year.'
  • LOWProductRylaze10%
    10-K Item 1: 'In 2025, net product sales of Rylaze were $402.9 million, which represented 10% of our total net product sales for the year.'
  • HIGHSupplierESSDS central pharmacy
    10-K Item 1: 'Since 2002, we have had exclusive agreements with ESSDS, the central pharmacy for Xywav and Xyrem, to distribute Xywav and Xyrem in the U.S.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -0.6=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.5>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
84 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $194.77Resistance $238.55

Price Targets

$224
$234
A.Upside-2.6%
A.R:R-0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-8.4% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is JAZZ stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $240.00, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Xywav (41.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: ESSDS central pharmacy. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $233.78 (-2.6%), stop $223.93 (−7.2%), A.R:R -0.6:1. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the JAZZ stock price target?

Take-profit target: $233.78 (-1.5% upside). Target $233.78 (-2.6%), stop $223.93 (−7.2%), A.R:R -0.6:1. Stop-loss: $223.93.

What are the risks of investing in JAZZ?

Concentration risk — Product: Xywav (41.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: ESSDS central pharmacy; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is JAZZ overvalued or undervalued?

Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc trades at a P/E of 2086.8 (forward 9.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about JAZZ?

24 analysts cover JAZZ with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $242.

What does Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc do?Jazz Pharmaceuticals is a global biopharma focused on rare diseases, with key products in sleep disorders (Xywav,...

Jazz Pharmaceuticals is a global biopharma focused on rare diseases, with key products in sleep disorders (Xywav, Xyrem), epilepsy (Epidiolex), and oncology (Rylaze, Zepzelca, Ziihera, Modeyso). Revenue comes from pharmaceutical product sales globally, with Xywav at 41%, Epidiolex at 26%, Rylaze at 10%, and Zepzelca at 8% of 2025 net product sales. Xywav and Xyrem are distributed exclusively through ESSDS under a REMS program.

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