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IVRINVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INCSell5.7·$7.88-0.13%
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INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC (IVR) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $7.88 — A.R:R is negative (-1.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) that invests, finances, and manages mortgage-backed securities and other mortgage-related assets in the United States. The company invests in residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) and... Read more

$7.88+1.0% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#12 of 24 REIT - Mortgage
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield18.34%(5y avg 19.14%)Payout179.49%
Stop $7.57Target $7.93(resistance)A.R:R -1.6:1
Analyst target$8.50+7.9%3 analysts
$7.93our TP
$7.88price
$8.50mean
$10

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $7.88 — A.R:R is negative (-1.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 48, MACD bullish. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 19d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 23, 202619d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong growth profile
Margin of safety: 33%
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.1
P/E (Fwd)3.8
Mkt Cap$771M
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn76.7%
ROE7.5%
Rev Growth
Beta1.54
Dividend18.34%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV58%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Dividend Safety
3.5
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/2MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
GatesA.R:R -1.6=NEGATIVEMomentum 4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.6>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 19d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
48 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $7.65Resistance $8.09

Price Targets

$8
$8
A.Upside+0.6%
A.R:R-1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-8.0% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (19d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is IVR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $7.88 — A.R:R is negative (-1.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 48, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $7.57. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the IVR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $7.93 (+1.0% upside). Prior stop was $7.57. Stop-loss: $7.57.

What are the risks of investing in IVR?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is IVR overvalued or undervalued?

INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC trades at a P/E of 10.1 (forward 3.8). TrendMatrix value score: 5.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about IVR?

13 analysts cover IVR with a consensus score of 2.6/5. Average price target: $9.

What does INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC do?Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) that invests, finances, and manages...

Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) that invests, finances, and manages mortgage-backed securities and other mortgage-related assets in the United States. The company invests in residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) and commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) that are guaranteed by the United States (U.S.) government agency or federally chartered corporation; RMBS and CMBS that are not issued or guaranteed by the U.S. government agency or federally chartered corporation; the U.S. treasury securities; real estate-related financing arrangements; to-be-announced securities forward contracts to purchase RMBS; and commercial mortgage loans. It has elected to be taxed as a REIT and would be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. The company was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

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