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Itron, Inc. (ITRI) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Scientific & Technical Instruments

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $81.35 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Earnings estimates trending DOWN; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Itron provides smart grid, energy/water management, and city services technology through four segments (Device Solutions, Networked Solutions, Outcomes, Resiliency Solutions), serving electric, gas, and water utilities globally. No single customer exceeded 10% of revenue in... Read more

$81.35+35.5% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#13 of 14 Scientific & Technical Instruments
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield8.70%
Stop $76.15Target $110.23(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 5.5:1
Analyst target$126.70+55.7%10 analysts
$110.23our TP
$81.35price
$126.70mean
$145

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $81.35 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Earnings estimates trending DOWN; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.60, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Itron, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:56:22Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Analyst upside: 35%
Risks
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Earnings estimates trending DOWN
Weak overall score: 4.8/10

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.5
P/E (Fwd)11.8
Mkt Cap$3.5B
EV/EBITDA12.1
Profit Mgn12.3%
ROE18.6%
Rev Growth-3.3%
Beta1.35
DividendNone
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C2.11bearish
IV49%normal
Max Pain$50-38.5% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomertop 10 customers32%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our 10 largest customers in each of the years ended December 31, 2025, 2024, and 2023, accounted for approximately 32%, 33%, and 36% of total revenues.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -3.3% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
1.7
Declining revenue: -3%

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.7
Quality Rank
5.0
Value Rank
8.6
Attractive P/E vs peers
GatesMomentum 4.1<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 5.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.60EARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
44 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $77.77Resistance $90.25

Price Targets

$76
$110
A.Upside+35.5%
A.R:R5.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 4.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ITRI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $81.35 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Earnings estimates trending DOWN; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $76.15. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ITRI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $110.23 (+35.5% upside). Prior stop was $76.15. Stop-loss: $76.15.

What are the risks of investing in ITRI?

Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Earnings estimates trending DOWN; Weak overall score: 4.8/10.

Is ITRI overvalued or undervalued?

Itron, Inc. trades at a P/E of 12.5 (forward 11.8). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ITRI?

21 analysts cover ITRI with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $127.

What does Itron, Inc. do?Itron provides smart grid, energy/water management, and city services technology through four segments (Device...

Itron provides smart grid, energy/water management, and city services technology through four segments (Device Solutions, Networked Solutions, Outcomes, Resiliency Solutions), serving electric, gas, and water utilities globally. No single customer exceeded 10% of revenue in 2025; total backlog was $4.5B with top 10 customers representing ~32% of total revenues.

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