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Itron, Inc. (ITRI) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Scientific & Technical Instruments

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $83.91 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: utilities; Weak overall score: 4.8/10.

Itron provides grid edge intelligence and smart infrastructure solutions including smart meters, network communications, software, and services to utilities and cities globally. Revenue derives primarily from utility customers purchasing electricity, gas, and water metering and... Read more

$83.91+31.8% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#12 of 14 Scientific & Technical Instruments
Stop $78.29Target $110.92(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.3:1
Analyst target$127.50+51.9%10 analysts
$110.92our TP
$83.91price
$127.50mean
$145

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $83.91 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: utilities; Weak overall score: 4.8/10. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 28, MACD bearish. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.60, earnings proximity 91d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Analyst upside: 32%
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: utilities
Weak overall score: 4.8/10
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.2
P/E (Fwd)12.5
Mkt Cap$3.7B
EV/EBITDA12.8
Profit Mgn12.3%
ROE18.6%
Rev Growth-3.3%
Beta
DividendNone
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C2.56bearish
IV56%elevated
Max Pain$200+138.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerutilities
    10-K Item 1A: 'We derive the majority of our revenues from sales of products and services to utilities.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -3.3% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
1.7
Declining revenue: -3%

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.1
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.0
Obv
10.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 28, below 200MA)Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.9%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.7
Quality Rank
5.7
Value Rank
8.6
Attractive P/E vs peers
GatesMomentum 2.8<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 3.3 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.60EARNINGS PROXIMITY 91d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
28 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $78.53Resistance $100.49

Price Targets

$78
$111
A.Upside+32.2%
A.R:R3.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.8/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (91d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ITRI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $83.91 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: utilities; Weak overall score: 4.8/10. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 28, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $78.29. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ITRI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $110.92 (+31.8% upside). Prior stop was $78.29. Stop-loss: $78.29.

What are the risks of investing in ITRI?

Concentration risk — Customer: utilities; Weak overall score: 4.8/10; Weak growth.

Is ITRI overvalued or undervalued?

Itron, Inc. trades at a P/E of 13.2 (forward 12.5). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ITRI?

20 analysts cover ITRI with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $128.

What does Itron, Inc. do?Itron provides grid edge intelligence and smart infrastructure solutions including smart meters, network...

Itron provides grid edge intelligence and smart infrastructure solutions including smart meters, network communications, software, and services to utilities and cities globally. Revenue derives primarily from utility customers purchasing electricity, gas, and water metering and management technology.

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