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IonQ, Inc. (IONQ) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 3/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Computer Hardware

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $42.61: Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10 and A.R:R 2.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 23%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

IonQ is an early-stage quantum computing company offering cloud-accessible quantum computers via AWS Braket, Azure Quantum, and Google Cloud Marketplace, plus quantum networking, sensing, and security products. It recorded a net loss of $510.4M in 2025 with an accumulated... Read more

$42.61+31.0% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#9 of 14 Computer Hardware
Stop $39.86Target $56.16(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.1:1
Analyst target$64.56+51.5%14 analysts
$56.16our TP
$42.61price
$64.56mean
$35
$100

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $42.61: Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10 and A.R:R 2.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 23%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 73. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: few customers
Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (3/5): Margin compression (op margin 2.0%), High leverage (D/E 5.1), Material insider selling (78 sells, 0.36% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-47.0
Mkt Cap$15.4B
EV/EBITDA-25.4
Profit Mgn0.0%
ROE-24.4%
Rev Growth428.5%
Beta2.80
DividendNone
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.62bullish
IV114%elevated
Max Pain$19-55.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerfew customers
    10-K Item 1A: 'Much of our revenue is concentrated in a few customers, and if we lose any of these customers through contract terminations, acquisitions, or other means, our revenue may decrease substantially.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-25Item 5.02LOW
    Board elected William F. Scannell (age 63) as Class II director effective March 20, 2026, filling a newly added seat. He joins the Compensation Committee. Routine board appointment, no departure.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.1
Support Resistance
2.8
Bollinger
3.6

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Gross Margin
4.4
Current Ratio
5.0
Moat
5.0
Piotroski F
6.7
Cash-burning: FCF -17% of revenueNo competitive moatQuality concerns

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
2.8
Ma Position
6.0
Macd
9.9
Overbought bear rally (RSI 73)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.9<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dA.R:R 2.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
73 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $26.74Resistance $49.13

Price Targets

$40
$56
A.Upside+31.8%
A.R:R2.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (3/5): Margin compression (op margin 2.0%), High leverage (D/E 5.1), Material insider selling (78 sells, 0.36% of cap)
! Momentum score 3.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-06 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is IONQ stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $42.61: Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10 and A.R:R 2.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 23%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 73. Prior stop was $39.86. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the IONQ stock price target?

Take-profit target: $56.16 (+31.0% upside). Prior stop was $39.86. Stop-loss: $39.86.

What are the risks of investing in IONQ?

Concentration risk — Customer: few customers; Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (3/5): Margin compression (op margin 2.0%), High leverage (D/E 5.1), Material insider selling (78 sells, 0.36% of cap).

Is IONQ overvalued or undervalued?

IonQ, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -47.0). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about IONQ?

19 analysts cover IONQ with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $65.

What does IonQ, Inc. do?IonQ is an early-stage quantum computing company offering cloud-accessible quantum computers via AWS Braket, Azure...

IonQ is an early-stage quantum computing company offering cloud-accessible quantum computers via AWS Braket, Azure Quantum, and Google Cloud Marketplace, plus quantum networking, sensing, and security products. It recorded a net loss of $510.4M in 2025 with an accumulated deficit of $1,194.1M.

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