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IonQ, Inc. (IONQ) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 3/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Computer Hardware

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $47.86: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: High short interest: 23%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.43; Below-average business quality.

IonQ develops trapped-ion quantum computers and a broader quantum platform spanning computing, networking, sensing, and security, selling hardware and QCaaS access via AWS Braket, Azure Quantum, and Google Cloud. The company is early-stage with net losses of $510.4M in 2025 and... Read more

$47.86+17.1% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#11 of 14 Computer Hardware
QualityF-score5 / 9FCF yield-0.50%
Stop $45.86Target $57.75(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.1:1
Analyst target$66.38+38.7%14 analysts
$57.75our TP
$47.86price
$66.38mean
$100

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $47.86: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: High short interest: 23%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.43; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — IonQ, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: few customers
Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (3/5): Margin compression (op margin 2.0%), High leverage (D/E 5.1), Material insider selling (94 sells, 0.36% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)126.4
P/E (Fwd)-47.3
Mkt Cap$18.4B
EV/EBITDA-24.8
Profit Mgn174.9%
ROE11.3%
Rev Growth754.7%
Beta3.05
DividendNone
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.43bearish
IV102%elevated
Max Pain$22-54.0% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerfew customers
    10-K Item 1A: 'Much of our revenue is concentrated in a few customers, and if we lose any of these customers through contract terminations, acquisitions, or other means, our revenue may decrease substantially.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-25Item 5.02LOW
    William F. Scannell, age 63, elected to Board as Class II director effective March 20, 2026, filling newly added seat. Appointed to Compensation Committee. No prior arrangement for selection; no material interest in any transaction.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roa
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Gross Margin
3.2
Roe
3.8
Current Ratio
5.0
Piotroski F
5.6
Moat
6.4
Earnings quality RED FLAG: -28% FCF/NI

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
1.7
Bollinger
4.6
Support Resistance
5.1
GatesMomentum 4.2<4.5A.R:R 1.1 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
58 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $39.77Resistance $59.15

Price Targets

$46
$58
A.Upside+20.7%
A.R:R1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (3/5): Margin compression (op margin 2.0%), High leverage (D/E 5.1), Material insider selling (94 sells, 0.36% of cap)
! Momentum score 4.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is IONQ stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $47.86: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: High short interest: 23%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.43; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $45.86. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the IONQ stock price target?

Take-profit target: $57.75 (+17.1% upside). Prior stop was $45.86. Stop-loss: $45.86.

What are the risks of investing in IONQ?

Concentration risk — Customer: few customers; Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (3/5): Margin compression (op margin 2.0%), High leverage (D/E 5.1), Material insider selling (94 sells, 0.36% of cap).

Is IONQ overvalued or undervalued?

IonQ, Inc. trades at a P/E of 126.4 (forward -47.3). TrendMatrix value score: 4.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about IONQ?

20 analysts cover IONQ with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $66.

What does IonQ, Inc. do?IonQ develops trapped-ion quantum computers and a broader quantum platform spanning computing, networking, sensing, and...

IonQ develops trapped-ion quantum computers and a broader quantum platform spanning computing, networking, sensing, and security, selling hardware and QCaaS access via AWS Braket, Azure Quantum, and Google Cloud. The company is early-stage with net losses of $510.4M in 2025 and accumulated deficit of $1,194.1M.

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