Value
5.7/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 1.9 |
| P/S | 7.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.3 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.2x
INCY · Why this verdict
Why Incyte (INCY) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Incyte is a high-quality, fast-growing biotech with a wide moat and a strong earnings beat streak, but the stock sits 0.8% below the $116.59 analyst target with earnings 5 days away, leaving little near-term upside.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Incyte is a high-quality business with 31% ROE, 28% margins, a wide economic moat and a 9/9 Piotroski score, which should sustain returns above peers. Quality breakdown | ROE stays near 30% and margins stay near 28% over the next 12 months. | Tripped↓Deteriorating |
| CounterEarnings quality is flagged, with free cash flow only 73% of net income, so reported profits may overstate cash generation. | ||
Growth is strong at 38% year over year, with quarterly revenue rising from $1.05B in March 2025 to $1.67B in June 2026. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue keeps growing above $1.67B and year-over-year growth stays strong. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterGrowth at a biotech can be lumpy and the latest quarter is still provisional data, so the pace may fade. | ||
Incyte beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of +27.8%, including a 44% beat in July 2026. Earnings | The October 29 report beats consensus and the beat streak continues. | ↑Improving |
| CounterEstimates may now be set higher after repeated beats, and the one miss in February 2026 shows beats are not guaranteed. | ||
At $115.71 the stock is 0.8% below the $116.59 analyst target against 6.9% downside to the stop, leaving a reward-to-risk of 0.11 and little room to add. Targets | Analysts raise targets above $116.59 as results improve, reopening upside. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterUpside is nearly exhausted and a pullback toward the $109.36 entry level is more likely than a breakout. | ||
Insiders made 19 sales and no purchases in 90 days, totalling about $14.7M, which is modest at 0.063% of market cap. Insider | Insider selling stays below 0.1% of market cap and no large buyers appear. | →Stable |
| CounterConsistent selling with zero buying can signal that insiders see the stock as fully valued near the analyst target. | ||
Incyte is a high-quality business with 31% ROE, 28% margins, a wide economic moat and a 9/9 Piotroski score, which should sustain returns above peers.
Tripped↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE stays near 30% and margins stay near 28% over the next 12 months.
CounterEarnings quality is flagged, with free cash flow only 73% of net income, so reported profits may overstate cash generation.
Growth is strong at 38% year over year, with quarterly revenue rising from $1.05B in March 2025 to $1.67B in June 2026.
↓DeterioratingGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue keeps growing above $1.67B and year-over-year growth stays strong.
CounterGrowth at a biotech can be lumpy and the latest quarter is still provisional data, so the pace may fade.
Incyte beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of +27.8%, including a 44% beat in July 2026.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- The October 29 report beats consensus and the beat streak continues.
CounterEstimates may now be set higher after repeated beats, and the one miss in February 2026 shows beats are not guaranteed.
At $115.71 the stock is 0.8% below the $116.59 analyst target against 6.9% downside to the stop, leaving a reward-to-risk of 0.11 and little room to add.
↓DeterioratingTargets
- Expectation
- Analysts raise targets above $116.59 as results improve, reopening upside.
CounterUpside is nearly exhausted and a pullback toward the $109.36 entry level is more likely than a breakout.
Insiders made 19 sales and no purchases in 90 days, totalling about $14.7M, which is modest at 0.063% of market cap.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider selling stays below 0.1% of market cap and no large buyers appear.
CounterConsistent selling with zero buying can signal that insiders see the stock as fully valued near the analyst target.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.6 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 7.2 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 3.4 |
| Current ratio | 9.2 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 7.9 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 319% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
- ▸High-quality business
Growth
6.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.0 |
Momentum
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 4.1 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 6.0 |
Insider
3.7/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 4.7 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $5,450,595 (0.022% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.8 |
| quality rank | 7.0 |
| growth rank | 4.6 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.3 |
| 52w position | 8.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.8 |
| days to cover | 4.9 |
| volatility | 4.5 |
| put call | 9.5 |
| implied vol | 6.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 8.3 |
| debt equity | 10.0 |
| news risk | 5.5 |
- ▸Above max pain $65
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $122.85 vs the analyst target $117.83: -4.1% upside; No upside left.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_E_WIDE_MOAT|SANITY:BUY+upside<=0Passed (5)
- MOMENTUM:7.6>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:96d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.3=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.33
Upside
-4.1%
Downside
12.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Binary industry: Biotechnology
Investment implication
The HOLD_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -0.3=NEGATIVE outcome against Quality at 7.8 and asymmetric R:R of -0.33.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 7.8, Momentum at 7.6, and Catalyst at 6.9; the weakest are Technical at 2.9, Insider at 3.7, and Value at 5.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.33 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Quality Wide MoatTripped
Trip ifReturn on equity falls below 20% from the current 31%.
- P2Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifQuarterly revenue growth falls below 15% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Analyst Target Nearly Reached
Trip ifStock price falls below the $104.55 stop level from the current $115.71.
- P5Insider Selling Pressure
Trip ifInsider net selling exceeds $50M over a rolling 90 days.