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Illumina, Inc. (ILMN) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Diagnostics & Research

Wait for pullback to $130.01. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $140.79. Engine's entry $130.01 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: sequencing revenue (92.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Illumina is a global provider of sequencing and array-based solutions for genetic and genomic analysis, serving research centers, clinical labs, pharmaceutical companies, and consumer genomics firms. Sequencing represented 92% of total revenue in 2025 with ~48% from... Read more

$140.79+13.2% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#22 of 26 Diagnostics & Research
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield3.94%
Entry $130.01(Ma50 Sticky)Stop $118.41Target $147.20(resistance)A.R:R -0.6:1Setup A.R:R 1.9:1
Analyst target$143.63+2.0%19 analysts
$147.20our TP
$140.79price
$143.63mean
$95
$175

Wait for pullback to $130.01. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $140.79. Engine's entry $130.01 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: sequencing revenue (92.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Illumina, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.4 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: sequencing revenue (92.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Weak overall score: 4.8/10

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)25.8
P/E (Fwd)23.9
Mkt Cap$21.4B
EV/EBITDA19.8
Profit Mgn19.4%
ROE33.8%
Rev Growth4.8%
Beta1.42
DividendNone
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.92neutral
IV45%normal
Max Pain$45-68.0% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductsequencing revenue92%
    10-K Item 1: 'In 2025, 2024, and 2023, total sequencing revenue comprised 92%, 91%, and 91%, respectively, of total revenue'
  • MEDIUMGeographicGreater China
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our revenue from the Greater China region, which includes China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong, was $243 million in 2025'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-02Item 5.02LOW
    Directors Frances Arnold, Robert Epstein, and Gary Guthart notified the Board of their intention to retire as directors effective May 21, 2026 (2026 annual meeting). Retirements not the result of any dispute or disagreement. Board nominated David King for election.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Macd
2.8
Rsi
4.4
Ma Position
9.0
Overbought (RSI 72)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
3.2
Revenue Growth
3.7

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.5
Value Rank
4.3
Quality Rank
8.8
Superior ROE vs peersBest-in-class margins
GatesMomentum 3.4<4.5A.R:R -0.6=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
72 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $119.14Resistance $150.20

Price Targets

$118
$130
$147
A.Upside+4.6%
A.R:R-0.6:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-8.2% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+2: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! Momentum score 3.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ILMN stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $130.01. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $140.79. Engine's entry $130.01 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: sequencing revenue (92.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $147.20 (+4.6%), stop $118.41 (−18.9%), Setup A.R:R 1.9:1. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ILMN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $147.20 (+13.2% upside). Target $147.20 (+4.6%), stop $118.41 (−18.9%), Setup A.R:R 1.9:1. Stop-loss: $118.41.

What are the risks of investing in ILMN?

Concentration risk — Product: sequencing revenue (92.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak overall score: 4.8/10.

Is ILMN overvalued or undervalued?

Illumina, Inc. trades at a P/E of 25.8 (forward 23.9). TrendMatrix value score: 4.3/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about ILMN?

28 analysts cover ILMN with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $144.

What does Illumina, Inc. do?Illumina is a global provider of sequencing and array-based solutions for genetic and genomic analysis, serving...

Illumina is a global provider of sequencing and array-based solutions for genetic and genomic analysis, serving research centers, clinical labs, pharmaceutical companies, and consumer genomics firms. Sequencing represented 92% of total revenue in 2025 with ~48% from international customers; the company had a backlog of $738M as of December 28, 2025. China regulatory inclusion on the List of Unreliable Entities has constrained instrument exports, with Greater China revenue of $243M in 2025.

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