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Hexcel Corporation (HXL) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $89.28 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Commercial Aerospace (61.0%).

Hexcel manufactures advanced composite materials—carbon fiber, prepregs, and honeycomb core—for aerospace (61% of 2025 net sales) and defense/space/industrial (39%). Airbus and Boeing combined account for approximately 52% of total sales, with $1.9B in 2025 net revenues across... Read more

$89.28+7.7% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#28 of 47 Aerospace & Defense
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield2.75%
IncomeYield0.78%(5y avg 0.88%)Payout45.70%sustainable
Stop $83.04Target $96.11(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1
Analyst target$94.60+6.0%15 analysts
$96.11our TP
$89.28price
$94.60mean
$79
$105

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $89.28 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Commercial Aerospace (61.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 65d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Hexcel Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Commercial Aerospace (61.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)59.1
P/E (Fwd)28.1
Mkt Cap$6.7B
EV/EBITDA22.3
Profit Mgn6.1%
ROE8.4%
Rev Growth9.9%
Beta1.10
Dividend0.78%
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.38bullish
IV41%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerAirbus39%
    10-K Item 1: 'approximately 39%... of our 2025... net sales, respectively, were to Airbus and its subcontractors'
  • MEDIUMCustomerBoeing13%
    10-K Item 1: 'approximately 13%... of our 2025... net sales, respectively, were to Boeing and its subcontractors'
  • HIGHProductCommercial Aerospace61%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 61% of our sales for 2025 were derived from sales to the Commercial Aerospace industry'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-01Item 1.01LOW
    Hexcel entered a new $750M revolving credit facility with Bank of America as agent on March 31, 2026, replacing the prior facility due to expire April 2028. Borrowed $300M to repay the prior facility.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-13Item 5.02MEDIUM
    James Coogan appointed as EVP and CFO effective May 1, 2026, succeeding interim CFO Michael Lenz who transitions to Senior Advisor for approximately three months. Clean handoff; no disagreement cited.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-04Item 5.02LOW
    Neal J. Keating appointed to Board and Audit Committee pursuant to cooperation agreement with Vision One Fund LP on March 3, 2026. No departures; routine board expansion in settlement with activist shareholder.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
2.0
Value Rank
4.1
Quality Rank
4.5
GatesA.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEMomentum 4.7<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.7>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 65d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
42 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $85.61Resistance $98.07

Price Targets

$83
$96
A.Upside+7.7%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-4.6% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (65d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HXL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $89.28 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Commercial Aerospace (61.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $83.04. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HXL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $96.11 (+7.7% upside). Prior stop was $83.04. Stop-loss: $83.04.

What are the risks of investing in HXL?

Concentration risk — Product: Commercial Aerospace (61.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3).

Is HXL overvalued or undervalued?

Hexcel Corporation trades at a P/E of 59.1 (forward 28.1). TrendMatrix value score: 4.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about HXL?

22 analysts cover HXL with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $95.

What does Hexcel Corporation do?Hexcel manufactures advanced composite materials—carbon fiber, prepregs, and honeycomb core—for aerospace (61% of 2025...

Hexcel manufactures advanced composite materials—carbon fiber, prepregs, and honeycomb core—for aerospace (61% of 2025 net sales) and defense/space/industrial (39%). Airbus and Boeing combined account for approximately 52% of total sales, with $1.9B in 2025 net revenues across two segments: Composite Materials (80%) and Engineered Products (20%).

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