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BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT) Stock Analysis

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Earnings in 4 days (2026-05-04). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $214.86, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. Government (68.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

BWX Technologies is a specialty manufacturer of nuclear components and developer of nuclear technologies with Government Operations (naval nuclear propulsion, DOE programs) and Commercial Operations (nuclear power, medical radioisotopes) segments. US Government contracts... Read more

$214.86+10.3% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#18 of 46 Aerospace & Defense
Stop $199.82Target $236.98(resistance)A.R:R -0.6:1
Analyst target$234.55+9.2%11 analysts
$236.98our TP
$214.86price
$234.55mean
$200
$290

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $214.86, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. Government (68.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 4d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. Government (68.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)58.1
P/E (Fwd)40.3
Mkt Cap$19.1B
EV/EBITDA46.0
Profit Mgn10.3%
ROE28.5%
Rev Growth18.7%
Beta0.79
Dividend0.49%
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV65%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerU.S. Government68%
    10-K Item 1A: 'U.S. Government contracts comprised approximately 68% of our total consolidated revenues'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-20Item 5.02LOW
    On February 18, 2026, BWX Technologies expanded its Board from nine to ten directors and appointed Daniel L. Jablonsky effective March 2, 2026. Appointed to Audit and Finance Committee. No reason cited beyond standard governance.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Pe
2.1
Forward Pe
2.8
Analyst Target
4.0
Peg Ratio
5.8
Ps
6.2
Forward P/E: 40.3xPEG: 1.29
GatesMomentum 2.5<4.5A.R:R -0.6=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 4d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
40 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $205.07Resistance $241.82

Price Targets

$200
$237
A.Upside+10.3%
A.R:R-0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-5.0% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+1: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! Momentum score 2.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-04 (4d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BWXT stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $214.86, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. Government (68.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $236.98 (+10.3%), stop $199.82 (−7.5%), A.R:R -0.6:1. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BWXT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $236.98 (+10.3% upside). Target $236.98 (+10.3%), stop $199.82 (−7.5%), A.R:R -0.6:1. Stop-loss: $199.82.

What are the risks of investing in BWXT?

Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. Government (68.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0.

Is BWXT overvalued or undervalued?

BWX Technologies, Inc. trades at a P/E of 58.1 (forward 40.3). TrendMatrix value score: 3.6/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about BWXT?

21 analysts cover BWXT with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $235.

What does BWX Technologies, Inc. do?BWX Technologies is a specialty manufacturer of nuclear components and developer of nuclear technologies with...

BWX Technologies is a specialty manufacturer of nuclear components and developer of nuclear technologies with Government Operations (naval nuclear propulsion, DOE programs) and Commercial Operations (nuclear power, medical radioisotopes) segments. US Government contracts comprised 68% of 2025 consolidated revenues.

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