Skip to main content

BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Sell if holding. At $198.75, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.4%; Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. Government (68.0%).

BWX Technologies is a specialty manufacturer of nuclear components and developer of nuclear technologies with Government Operations (naval nuclear propulsion, DOE programs) and Commercial Operations (nuclear power, medical radioisotopes) segments. US Government contracts... Read more

$198.75+4.5% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#14 of 47 Aerospace & Defense
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield0.92%
IncomeYield0.53%(5y avg 1.14%)Payout27.20%sustainable
Stop $187.21Target $208.17(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.5:1
Analyst target$239.27+20.4%11 analysts
$208.17our TP
$198.75price
$239.27mean
$290

Sell if holding. At $198.75, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.4%; Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. Government (68.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.70, news boost analyst cluster(10), earnings proximity 75d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Val3.7Qual5.5Grw7.5Mom2.6Sent7.3Ins5.0Peer4.7Tech7.1Risk5.75.5OVERALL

Recent Developments — BWX Technologies, Inc.

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Strong growth profile
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. Government (68.0%)
Thin upside margin: 4.4%
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.5)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)52.6
P/E (Fwd)37.9
Mkt Cap$18.1B
EV/EBITDA42.2
Profit Mgn10.2%
ROE29.0%
Rev Growth26.1%
Beta0.78
Dividend0.53%
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.92neutral
IV55%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerU.S. Government68%
    10-K Item 1A: 'U.S. Government contracts comprised approximately 68% of our total consolidated revenues'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-20Item 5.02LOW
    On February 18, 2026, BWX Technologies expanded its Board from nine to ten directors and appointed Daniel L. Jablonsky effective March 2, 2026. Appointed to Audit and Finance Committee. No reason cited beyond standard governance.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
7.9
Uptrend pullback (RSI 36) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Pe
2.4
Forward Pe
2.9
Peg Ratio
4.7
Analyst Target
5.0
Ps
6.7
Forward P/E: 37.9xPEG: 1.83
GatesMomentum 2.6<4.5A.R:R 0.5 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.70NEWS BOOST ANALYST CLUSTER(10)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 75d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
36 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $193.00Resistance $227.47

Price Targets

$187
$208
A.Upside+4.7%
A.R:R0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.5:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-03 (75d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BWXT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $198.75, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.4%; Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. Government (68.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $187.21. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

What is the BWXT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $208.17 (+4.5% upside). Prior stop was $187.21. Stop-loss: $187.21.

What are the risks of investing in BWXT?

Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. Government (68.0%); Thin upside margin: 4.4%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.5).

Is BWXT overvalued or undervalued?

BWX Technologies, Inc. trades at a P/E of 52.6 (forward 37.9). TrendMatrix value score: 3.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BWXT?

21 analysts cover BWXT with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $239.

What does BWX Technologies, Inc. do?BWX Technologies is a specialty manufacturer of nuclear components and developer of nuclear technologies with...

BWX Technologies is a specialty manufacturer of nuclear components and developer of nuclear technologies with Government Operations (naval nuclear propulsion, DOE programs) and Commercial Operations (nuclear power, medical radioisotopes) segments. US Government contracts comprised 68% of 2025 consolidated revenues.

Related stocks: LOAR (Loar Holdings Inc.) · VVX (V2X, Inc.) · HWM (Howmet Aerospace Inc.) · FTAI (FTAI Aviation Ltd.) · NOC (Northrop Grumman Corporation)