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HWKNHawkins, Inc.Sell5.0·$129.03
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Hawkins trades near its analyst target at 29.4x forward earnings with declining revenue and an inconsistent earnings track record — the 1.3% upside to target and risk/reward of 0.21 to 1 do not compensate for the combination of a rich multiple and near-term execution uncertainty.

Thesis pillars

  • Minimal Upside At Target↓Deteriorating
  • Rich Valuation Weak Revenue↓Deteriorating
  • Alternating Beat Miss Pattern→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Hawkins, Inc. (HWKN) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellQualityShortModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Specialty Chemicals

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $129.03: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2); Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1.

We are a leading water treatment and specialty ingredients company that formulates, manufactures, distributes, and blends products for our Water Treatment, Food and Health Sciences, and Industrial Solutions customers. We believe that we create value for our customers through... Read more

$129.03+14.8% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#40 of 44 Specialty Chemicals
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield3.08%
IncomeYield0.63%(5y avg 0.95%)Payout19.69%sustainable
Stop $120.85Target $148.11(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 1.8:1
Analyst target$174.25+35.0%4 analysts
$148.11our TP
$129.03price
$174.25mean
$200

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $129.03: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2); Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 50. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 33d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-26

Recent Developments — Hawkins, Inc.

Generated 2026-09-26T16:02:03Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Oct 28, 202633d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2)
Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1
Consecutive earnings misses (4)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)32.8
P/E (Fwd)25.3
Mkt Cap$2.6B
EV/EBITDA17.4
Profit Mgn7.3%
ROE15.6%
Rev Growth7.6%
Beta0.77
Dividend0.63%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.00bearish
IV44%normal

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-08-14Item 5.02MEDIUM
    HAWKINS, INC. | | Date: August 14, 2026 | | By: | | /s/ Daniel A. Louismet | | | | Daniel A. Louismet | | | | Vice President, General Counsel and Secretary
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
1.0
Support Resistance
1.2
52w Position
3.9

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
1.3
Revenue Growth
4.4

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Erm
6.5
Dividend Safety
6.8
Earnings concerns: 0B/4M
GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 6.7>=5.5A.R:R 1.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 33d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
50 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $118.20Resistance $130.52

Price Targets

$121
$148
A.Upside+14.8%
A.R:R1.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Analyst Consensus

Analysts9
Consensus4.0/5
Avg Target$174

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-28 (33d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HWKN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $129.03: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2); Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 50. Prior stop was $120.85. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HWKN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $148.11 (+14.8% upside). Prior stop was $120.85. Stop-loss: $120.85.

What are the risks of investing in HWKN?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2); Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Consecutive earnings misses (4).

Is HWKN overvalued or undervalued?

Hawkins, Inc. trades at a P/E of 32.8 (forward 25.3). TrendMatrix value score: 4.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about HWKN?

9 analysts cover HWKN with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $174.

What does Hawkins, Inc. do?We are a leading water treatment and specialty ingredients company that formulates, manufactures, distributes, and...

We are a leading water treatment and specialty ingredients company that formulates, manufactures, distributes, and blends products for our Water Treatment, Food and Health Sciences, and Industrial Solutions customers. We believe that we create value for our customers through superb service and support, quality products, personalized applications and trustworthy, creative employees.

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