Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) Stock Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · Recreational Vehicles
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $26.03: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 20%; Below-average business quality.
Harley-Davidson manufactures and sells motorcycles and related products through three segments: HDMC (motorcycles, parts, accessories), LiveWire (electric motorcycles), and HDFS (financial services). Total revenues were $4.47 billion in 2025, primarily from wholesale motorcycle... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $26.03: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 20%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 44d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About Harley-Davidson, Inc.
About Harley-Davidson, Inc.
Harley-Davidson generated $4.47 billion in consolidated revenue in fiscal 2025, with the HDMC segment contributing $3.58 billion, Harley-Davidson Financial Services adding $869 million, and the electric LiveWire brand accounting for $25.7 million. The company operated 1,174 dealership points globally as of December 31, 2025, holding 34.5% of U.S. 601+cc motorcycle registrations—down from 37.3% in 2024—while European market share declined to 3.4% from 5.0% a year earlier.
Harley-Davidson earns revenue through motorcycle unit sales (74.3% of HDMC segment revenue in 2025), parts and accessories (17.2%), apparel (6.0%), and licensing (0.6%). Motorcycles are sold through 554 U.S. and 620 international dealership points; HDFS provides floorplan financing to all U.S. and Canadian independent dealers and retail installment lending through most dealerships, financing 68.4% of new Harley-Davidson motorcycles retailed in the U.S. in 2025. Beginning in the fourth quarter of 2025, the company started selling up to two-thirds of retail loan originations to two external counterparties as part of a transaction restructuring HDFS's funding mix. LiveWire purchases completed electric motorcycles from HDMC and resells them through dealer and direct-to-consumer channels; its STACYC children's electric balance bike brand sources from contract manufacturers in Taiwan and China. The 10-K acknowledges that supplier First Brands Group, LLC filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in September 2025, requiring supply chain mitigation by the company.
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Harley-Davidson's motorcycle operations depend on unionized hourly production employees covered by four collective bargaining agreements with affiliates of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers and the United Steelworkers of America. The Pennsylvania agreement expires October 15, 2027; the Wisconsin agreements expire March 31, 2029. Failure to negotiate successor agreements on acceptable terms could result in production relocations or work stoppages, per the 10-K. In late 2025, the company also mandated that Milwaukee-based corporate employees return to on-site work after five years of primarily remote operations, which the filing explicitly flags as a potential driver of attrition and hiring difficulty.
See also: Consumer Cyclical · Recreational Vehicles
From Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-15Recent Developments — Harley-Davidson, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Harley-Davidson Announces Return Of Revolution Max Production Back To The U.S., Production Expected To Begin In 2027 — benzinga Jun 9, 2026 positive
- NEWS Recent Report Shows That Rep. Tim Moore Bought Up to $80K Worth of AT&T Stock — benzinga May 20, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Micron To Rally More Than 61%? Here Are 10 Top Analyst Forecasts For Tuesday — benzinga May 19, 2026 positive
- NEWS Morgan Stanley Maintains Underweight on Harley-Davidson, Raises Price Target to $15 — benzinga May 19, 2026 neutral
- NEWS UBS Maintains Neutral on Harley-Davidson, Raises Price Target to $26 — benzinga May 11, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-06-17T08:56:48Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-02-10Item 5.02LOWJames Duncan Farley Jr. notified the company on February 9, 2026 that he does not wish to stand for re-election as a Board director at the upcoming annual meeting. Decision not due to any disagreement with the company. Board expected to decrease from nine to eight members.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -11.8% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $26.03: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 20%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $24.30. Score 4.1/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $25.94 (-0.4% upside). Prior stop was $24.30. Stop-loss: $24.30.
Target reached (-14.3% upside); Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0).
Harley-Davidson, Inc. trades at a P/E of 13.3 (forward 13.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
21 analysts cover HOG with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $26.
What does Harley-Davidson, Inc. do?Harley-Davidson manufactures and sells motorcycles and related products through three segments: HDMC (motorcycles,...
Harley-Davidson manufactures and sells motorcycles and related products through three segments: HDMC (motorcycles, parts, accessories), LiveWire (electric motorcycles), and HDFS (financial services). Total revenues were $4.47 billion in 2025, primarily from wholesale motorcycle sales through ~1,174 independent dealers globally. HDMC North America Solutions contributed ~63% of consolidated revenues, and HDFS financed 68.4% of new Harley-Davidson motorcycles retailed in the U.S. in 2025.