A recreational vehicle manufacturer facing declining revenue of 12%, below-minimum business quality, and a stock priced above its near-term technical resistance — with high short interest and three distinct concentration risks adding further headwinds; the current risk/reward setup is unfavorable.
Thesis pillars
- Revenue Contraction No Moat↑Improving
- Price Above Technical Resistance↑Improving
- High Short Interest Persistent Bears↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Consumer Cyclical · Recreational Vehicles
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $25.49: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 22%; Elevated put/call ratio: 6.23; Below-average business quality.
Harley-Davidson designs and sells motorcycles, parts, and accessories under the HDMC segment and the LiveWire electric motorcycle brand, and provides consumer and dealer financing through HDFS. Total revenue was $4.47 billion in 2025, with motorcycles representing 74.3% of HDMC... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $25.49: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 22%; Elevated put/call ratio: 6.23; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 51, MACD bullish. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news boost earnings 0.60, earnings proximity 101d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About Harley-Davidson, Inc.
About Harley-Davidson, Inc.
Harley-Davidson generated $4.47 billion in consolidated revenue in fiscal 2025, with the HDMC segment contributing $3.58 billion, Harley-Davidson Financial Services adding $869 million, and the electric LiveWire brand accounting for $25.7 million. The company operated 1,174 dealership points globally as of December 31, 2025, holding 34.5% of U.S. 601+cc motorcycle registrations—down from 37.3% in 2024—while European market share declined to 3.4% from 5.0% a year earlier.
Harley-Davidson earns revenue through motorcycle unit sales (74.3% of HDMC segment revenue in 2025), parts and accessories (17.2%), apparel (6.0%), and licensing (0.6%). Motorcycles are sold through 554 U.S. and 620 international dealership points; HDFS provides floorplan financing to all U.S. and Canadian independent dealers and retail installment lending through most dealerships, financing 68.4% of new Harley-Davidson motorcycles retailed in the U.S. in 2025. Beginning in the fourth quarter of 2025, the company started selling up to two-thirds of retail loan originations to two external counterparties as part of a transaction restructuring HDFS's funding mix. LiveWire purchases completed electric motorcycles from HDMC and resells them through dealer and direct-to-consumer channels; its STACYC children's electric balance bike brand sources from contract manufacturers in Taiwan and China. The 10-K acknowledges that supplier First Brands Group, LLC filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in September 2025, requiring supply chain mitigation by the company.
Show full overview
Harley-Davidson's motorcycle operations depend on unionized hourly production employees covered by four collective bargaining agreements with affiliates of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers and the United Steelworkers of America. The Pennsylvania agreement expires October 15, 2027; the Wisconsin agreements expire March 31, 2029. Failure to negotiate successor agreements on acceptable terms could result in production relocations or work stoppages, per the 10-K. In late 2025, the company also mandated that Milwaukee-based corporate employees return to on-site work after five years of primarily remote operations, which the filing explicitly flags as a potential driver of attrition and hiring difficulty.
See also: Consumer Cyclical · Recreational Vehicles
From Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-26Recent Developments — Harley-Davidson, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Baird Maintains Neutral on Harley-Davidson, Raises Price Target to $30 — benzinga Jul 24, 2026 neutral
- NEWS LiveWire Group (LVWR) Stock Surges Over 58% After Hours: Why is it Moving? — benzinga Jul 24, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Transcript: Harley-Davidson Q2 2026 Earnings Conference Call — benzinga Jul 23, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Harley-Davidson Says Turnaround Is Gaining Momentum, Lifts Outlook — benzinga Jul 23, 2026 positive
- NEWS Earnings Scheduled For July 23, 2026 — benzinga Jul 23, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-07-27T15:57:49Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductmotorcycles74%10-K Item 1: 'HDMC revenue by product line as a percent of total revenue for the last three fiscal years was as follows ... Motorcycles| 74.3 | %|'
- HIGHGeographicU.S. and European 601+cc markets79%10-K Item 1: 'approximately 79% of the total annual dealer retail sales of new Harley-Davidson motorcycles were sold in the U.S. and European 601+cc markets'
- HIGHSuppliersingle supplier components10-K Item 1A: 'the Company relies on a single supplier to provide component parts or a contract manufacturer to manufacture certain components and/or products'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-28Item 5.02LOWAt the May 21, 2026 annual meeting, shareholders approved an amendment to the Harley-Davidson 2020 Incentive Stock Plan increasing authorized shares to 12,200,000 total. Compensatory arrangement change; no officer departure or appointment.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -5.9% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $25.49: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 22%; Elevated put/call ratio: 6.23; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 51, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $23.71. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $28.19 (-7.2% upside). Prior stop was $23.71. Stop-loss: $23.71.
Concentration risk — Product: motorcycles (74.3%); Concentration risk — Geographic: U.S. and European 601+cc markets (79.0%); Target reached (-7.2% upside).
Harley-Davidson, Inc. trades at a P/E of 14.2 (forward 12.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
21 analysts cover HOG with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $27.
What does Harley-Davidson, Inc. do?Harley-Davidson designs and sells motorcycles, parts, and accessories under the HDMC segment and the LiveWire electric...
Harley-Davidson designs and sells motorcycles, parts, and accessories under the HDMC segment and the LiveWire electric motorcycle brand, and provides consumer and dealer financing through HDFS. Total revenue was $4.47 billion in 2025, with motorcycles representing 74.3% of HDMC segment revenue; HDFS financed 68.4% of U.S. new Harley-Davidson motorcycles retailed in 2025. The company held 34.5% U.S. market share in 601+cc motorcycle registrations as of 2025.