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Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Recreational Vehicles

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $23.36: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Harley-Davidson manufactures and sells motorcycles and related products through three segments: HDMC (motorcycles, parts, accessories), LiveWire (electric motorcycles), and HDFS (financial services). Total revenues were $4.47 billion in 2025, primarily from wholesale motorcycle... Read more

$23.36+13.4% A.UpsideScore 4.1/10#7 of 7 Recreational Vehicles
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield6.57%
IncomeYield2.99%(5y avg 2.01%)Payout37.69%sustainable
Stop $21.82Target $26.45(resistance)A.R:R -0.6:1
Analyst target$25.18+7.8%11 analysts
$26.45our TP
$23.36price
$25.18mean
$12
$32

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $23.36: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst cluster(8), earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Harley-Davidson, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Recent Analyst Cluster(8) detected in news
Risks
Target reached (-6.1% upside)
Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.6
P/E (Fwd)12.7
Mkt Cap$2.6B
EV/EBITDA7.6
Profit Mgn5.3%
ROE7.1%
Rev Growth-11.8%
Beta1.28
Dividend2.99%
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C1.29bearish
IV52%elevated
Max Pain$31+32.7% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-10Item 5.02LOW
    James Duncan Farley Jr. notified the company on February 9, 2026 that he does not wish to stand for re-election as a Board director at the upcoming annual meeting. Decision not due to any disagreement with the company. Board expected to decrease from nine to eight members.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -11.8% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Earnings Growth
0.0
Declining revenue: -12%

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Operating Margin
1.2
Roa
1.3
Gross Margin
1.8
Roe
2.4
Net Margin
2.7
Moat
3.9
Piotroski F
4.4
Fcf Quality
5.5
Current Ratio
6.7
Earnings quality warning: 73% FCF/NINo competitive moat
GatesMomentum 2.5<4.5A.R:R -0.6=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST CLUSTER(8)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
49 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $22.50Resistance $26.99

Price Targets

$22
$26
A.Upside+13.2%
A.R:R-0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.1% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 2.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HOG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $23.36: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $21.82. Score 4.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HOG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $26.45 (+13.4% upside). Prior stop was $21.82. Stop-loss: $21.82.

What are the risks of investing in HOG?

Target reached (-6.1% upside); Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0).

Is HOG overvalued or undervalued?

Harley-Davidson, Inc. trades at a P/E of 12.6 (forward 12.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about HOG?

21 analysts cover HOG with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $25.

What does Harley-Davidson, Inc. do?Harley-Davidson manufactures and sells motorcycles and related products through three segments: HDMC (motorcycles,...

Harley-Davidson manufactures and sells motorcycles and related products through three segments: HDMC (motorcycles, parts, accessories), LiveWire (electric motorcycles), and HDFS (financial services). Total revenues were $4.47 billion in 2025, primarily from wholesale motorcycle sales through ~1,174 independent dealers globally. HDMC North America Solutions contributed ~63% of consolidated revenues, and HDFS financed 68.4% of new Harley-Davidson motorcycles retailed in the U.S. in 2025.

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