Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the HOG stock price target?

Take-profit $24.19 (+1.1% upside). Prior stop was $22.30.

Q: What are the risks of investing in HOG?

Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source component suppliers; Target reached (-19.5% upside); Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0); Target reached (-19.5% upside); Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0).

Q: Is HOG overvalued or undervalued?

Harley-Davidson, Inc. trades at a P/E of 8.5 (forward 14.3). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about HOG?

21 analysts cover HOG with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $22.

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-05-01

Consumer Cyclical · Recreational Vehicles

Earnings in 5 days (2026-05-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Harley-Davidson operates three segments: HDMC (motorcycles, parts, accessories, apparel; $3.58B revenue in 2025), LiveWire (electric motorcycles), and HDFS (financial services; $869M revenue). Products are sold globally through 1,174 independent dealerships, with motorcycles... Read more

$23.89+1.1% A.UpsideScore 4.1/10#7 of 7 Recreational Vehicles

Stop $22.30Target $24.19(resistance)A.R:R -1.3:1

Analyst target$22.14-7.3%11 analysts

$24.19our TP

$23.89price

$22.14mean

$12

$32

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $23.89: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 19%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards

No bull case signals

Risks

Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source component suppliers

Target reached (-19.5% upside)

Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)8.5

P/E (Fwd)14.3

Mkt Cap$2.6B

EV/EBITDA7.1

Profit Mgn7.6%

ROE10.4%

Rev Growth-27.8%

Beta1.29

Dividend3.08%

Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C1.22bearish

IV71%elevated

Max Pain$7-70.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

HIGHSuppliersingle-source component suppliers
10-K Item 1A: 'In certain circumstances, the Company relies on a single supplier to provide component parts or a contract manufacturer to manufacture certain components and/or products'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

2026-02-10Item 5.02LOW
Director James Duncan Farley, Jr. notified the Board on Feb 9, 2026 that he does not wish to stand for re-election at the upcoming annual meeting. No disagreement cited. Board expected to decrease from 9 to 8 members.
SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value6.315%0.94

Quality3.215%0.48

Growth0.015%0.00

Momentum5.310%0.53

Sentiment5.210%0.52

Insider Activity5.210%0.52

Peer Rank4.410%0.44

Technical Setup3.15%0.16

Risk Profile3.95%0.20

Catalyst5.75%0.29

Overall (Σ contributions)4.07

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Revenue shrinking — -27.8% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth

0.0

Declining revenue: -28%

Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance

1.6

Bollinger

2.2

52w Position

5.6

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Operating Margin

0.0

Fcf Quality

0.0

Roa

1.9

Gross Margin

2.0

Roe

3.5

Net Margin

3.8

Moat

5.0

Piotroski F

5.6

Current Ratio

7.3

Earnings quality RED FLAG: -136% FCF/NINo competitive moat

GatesA.R:R -1.3=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dMomentum 5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.3>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive

RSI

59 · Neutral

↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $20.01Resistance $24.68

Price Targets

$22

$24

A.Upside+1.3%

A.R:R-1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-19.5% upside)

! Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0)

! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

2/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-05 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is HOG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $23.89: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 19%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $22.30. Score 4.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HOG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $24.19 (+1.1% upside). Prior stop was $22.30. Stop-loss: $22.30.

What are the risks of investing in HOG?

Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source component suppliers; Target reached (-19.5% upside); Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0).

Is HOG overvalued or undervalued?

Harley-Davidson, Inc. trades at a P/E of 8.5 (forward 14.3). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about HOG?

21 analysts cover HOG with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $22.

What does Harley-Davidson, Inc. do?Harley-Davidson operates three segments: HDMC (motorcycles, parts, accessories, apparel; $3.58B revenue in 2025),...