Value
9.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.0 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 10.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 4.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.21
- ▸Attractively valued
HMY · Why this verdict
Why Harmony Gold Mining Company Lim (HMY) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 4.7 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 2.2 |
| FCF quality | 6.6 |
| Moat | 8.2 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 33%
- ▸Strong margins: 20%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
7.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.4 |
| EPS growth | 6.5 |
Momentum
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 1.9 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.2 |
| Volume | 1.9 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.8%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 33%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
3.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.8 |
| quality rank | 4.9 |
| growth rank | 0.4 |
Technical
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.7 |
| support resistance | 3.0 |
| 52w position | 3.5 |
| gap | 3.0 |
- ▸Extreme gap up (10.5%) - may pull back
Risk (lower is worse)
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.9 |
| days to cover | 8.7 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 8.8 |
| debt equity | 9.0 |
- ▸High IV: 86%
Catalyst
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/4M
- ▸Dividend: 257.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_E_WIDE_MOAT|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.1>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:72d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:0.8<1.5@spot
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:fwd=4.8x,ratio=0.47x
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
0.85
Upside
+12.8%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRANGE_BOUND — RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The HOLD_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's 0.8<1.5@spot outcome against Value at 9.1 and asymmetric R:R of 0.85.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.1, Quality at 7.8, and Growth at 7.0; the weakest are Technical at 3.3, Catalyst at 3.4, and Peer rank at 3.5. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.85 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.