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Huntington Ingalls Industries, (HII) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Sell if holding. At $323.81, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.3%; Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. Navy (81.0%).

Huntington Ingalls Industries is America's largest shipbuilder, operating Ingalls Shipbuilding (non-nuclear ships for Navy and Coast Guard), Newport News Shipbuilding (nuclear aircraft carriers and submarines as sole or one of two builders), and Mission Technologies (defense IT,... Read more

$323.81+4.3% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#34 of 47 Aerospace & Defense
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield4.96%
IncomeYield1.70%(5y avg 2.13%)Payout35.48%sustainable
Stop $301.67Target $337.80(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.5:1
Analyst target$388.27+19.9%11 analysts
$337.80our TP
$323.81price
$388.27mean
$298
$435

Sell if holding. At $323.81, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.3%; Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. Navy (81.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 70d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Val6.4Qual4.0Grw3.9Mom3.2Sent6.7Ins3.9Peer4.5Tech6.4Risk6.54.9OVERALL

Recent Developments — Huntington Ingalls Industries,

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. Navy (81.0%)
Thin upside margin: 4.3%
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)21.1
P/E (Fwd)15.9
Mkt Cap$12.8B
EV/EBITDA13.7
Profit Mgn4.7%
ROE12.2%
Rev Growth13.4%
Beta0.29
Dividend1.70%
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.09bearish
IV41%normal
Max Pain$270-16.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerU.S. Navy81%
    10-K Item 1: 'In 2025, 2024, and 2023, approximately 81%, 80%, and 81%, respectively, of our revenues were generated from the U.S. Navy.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Macd
10.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 29, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+4.9%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
2.0
Revenue Growth
5.8
GatesMomentum 3.2<4.5A.R:R 0.5 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 70d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
29 · Oversold
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $311.00Resistance $371.47

Price Targets

$302
$338
A.Upside+4.3%
A.R:R0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.5:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (70d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HII stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $323.81, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.3%; Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. Navy (81.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $301.67. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.

What is the HII stock price target?

Take-profit target: $337.80 (+4.3% upside). Prior stop was $301.67. Stop-loss: $301.67.

What are the risks of investing in HII?

Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. Navy (81.0%); Thin upside margin: 4.3%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.0).

Is HII overvalued or undervalued?

Huntington Ingalls Industries, trades at a P/E of 21.1 (forward 15.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about HII?

17 analysts cover HII with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $388.

What does Huntington Ingalls Industries, do?Huntington Ingalls Industries is America's largest shipbuilder, operating Ingalls Shipbuilding (non-nuclear ships for...

Huntington Ingalls Industries is America's largest shipbuilder, operating Ingalls Shipbuilding (non-nuclear ships for Navy and Coast Guard), Newport News Shipbuilding (nuclear aircraft carriers and submarines as sole or one of two builders), and Mission Technologies (defense IT, cyber, C5ISR). Approximately 81% of 2025 revenues came from the U.S. Navy, with substantially all revenues from U.S. Government customers.

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