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HGTYHagerty, Inc.Hold4.8·$10.23-2.11%
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Hagerty, Inc. (HGTY) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $10.23, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Counterparty: Markel/Essentia (91.0%); Thin upside margin: 9.3%.

Hagerty is the leading collector car and enthusiast vehicle insurer operating as an MGA (with owned reinsurer Hagerty Re) and marketplace (Broad Arrow auctions, digital platform). Insurance segment represented 92% of 2025 revenue; commission revenue from the Markel Alliance... Read more

$10.23+9.4% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#24 of 29 Insurance - Property & Casualty
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield9.62%
Stop $9.51Target $11.19(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.3:1
Analyst target$12.86+25.7%7 analysts
$11.19our TP
$10.23price
$12.86mean
$15

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $10.23, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Counterparty: Markel/Essentia (91.0%); Thin upside margin: 9.3%. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 32, MACD bearish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/9 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 55d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Aug 3, 202655d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Counterparty: Markel/Essentia (91.0%)
Thin upside margin: 9.3%
Weak overall score: 4.8/10

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)43.5
P/E (Fwd)18.3
Mkt Cap$3.6B
EV/EBITDA4.0
Profit Mgn2.0%
ROE15.0%
Rev Growth-5.0%
Beta0.82
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.40bullish

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHcounterpartyMarkel/Essentia91%
    10-K Item 1: 'commission revenue associated with the Markel Alliance Agreement was $436.8 million...representing 91%, 93%, and 95%, respectively, of total commission revenue.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-15Item 5.02LOW
    Michael R. Heaton resigned from Hagerty Board (Markel's designee) effective April 13, 2026; Henrik W. Bjørnstad appointed as Markel's new Board designee. No disagreement. Board accelerated vesting of 10,230 RSUs granted to Heaton.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.7
Growth Rank
1.0
Quality Rank
2.4

Revenue shrinking — -5.0% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
1.2
Declining revenue: -5%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).
GatesMomentum 4.1<4.5A.R:R 1.3 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 55d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
32 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $9.71Resistance $11.24

Price Targets

$10
$11
A.Upside+9.4%
A.R:R1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 4.1 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 1.3 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-03 (55d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HGTY stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $10.23, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Counterparty: Markel/Essentia (91.0%); Thin upside margin: 9.3%. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 32, MACD bearish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $11.19 (+9.4%), stop $9.51 (−7.6%), A.R:R 1.3:1. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HGTY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $11.19 (+9.4% upside). Target $11.19 (+9.4%), stop $9.51 (−7.6%), A.R:R 1.3:1. Stop-loss: $9.51.

What are the risks of investing in HGTY?

Concentration risk — Counterparty: Markel/Essentia (91.0%); Thin upside margin: 9.3%; Weak overall score: 4.8/10.

Is HGTY overvalued or undervalued?

Hagerty, Inc. trades at a P/E of 43.5 (forward 18.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about HGTY?

14 analysts cover HGTY with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $13.

What does Hagerty, Inc. do?Hagerty is the leading collector car and enthusiast vehicle insurer operating as an MGA (with owned reinsurer Hagerty...

Hagerty is the leading collector car and enthusiast vehicle insurer operating as an MGA (with owned reinsurer Hagerty Re) and marketplace (Broad Arrow auctions, digital platform). Insurance segment represented 92% of 2025 revenue; commission revenue from the Markel Alliance Agreement (Essentia carrier) represented 91% of total commission revenue. Hagerty Re assumed 80% quota share of Essentia risk as of Dec 31, 2025, increasing to 100% in 2026.

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