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Hagerty, Inc. (HGTY) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $10.99, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Counterparty: Markel/Essentia (91.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Hagerty is the leading collector car and enthusiast vehicle insurer operating as an MGA (with owned reinsurer Hagerty Re) and marketplace (Broad Arrow auctions, digital platform). Insurance segment represented 92% of 2025 revenue; commission revenue from the Markel Alliance... Read more

$10.99+2.9% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#23 of 29 Insurance - Property & Casualty
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield7.87%
Stop $10.22Target $11.31(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.3:1
Analyst target$13.00+18.3%7 analysts
$11.31our TP
$10.99price
$13.00mean
$15

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $10.99, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Counterparty: Markel/Essentia (91.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 55. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 75d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Val7.1Qual6.0Grw1.9Mom7.0Sent5.8Ins5.0Peer1.1Tech1.9Risk4.94.8OVERALL

Recent Developments — Hagerty, Inc.

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Counterparty: Markel/Essentia (91.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Weak overall score: 4.8/10

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)45.8
P/E (Fwd)19.2
Mkt Cap$3.8B
EV/EBITDA4.2
Profit Mgn2.0%
ROE15.0%
Rev Growth-2.4%
Beta—
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

IV108%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHcounterpartyMarkel/Essentia91%
    10-K Item 1: 'commission revenue associated with the Markel Alliance Agreement was $436.8 million...representing 91%, 93%, and 95%, respectively, of total commission revenue.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-15Item 5.02LOW
    Michael R. Heaton resigned from Hagerty Board (Markel's designee) effective April 13, 2026; Henrik W. Bjørnstad appointed as Markel's new Board designee. No disagreement. Board accelerated vesting of 10,230 RSUs granted to Heaton.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.5
Growth Rank
1.4
Quality Rank
2.4

Revenue shrinking — -2.4% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
1.9
Declining revenue: -2%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.1
52w Position
5.7
GatesA.R:R 0.2 < 1.5@spotMomentum 7.0>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 75d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
55 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $9.69Resistance $11.00

Price Targets

$10
$11
A.Upside+2.9%
A.R:R0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (2.9% upside)
! Reward/Risk 0.2:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-03 (75d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HGTY stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $10.99, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Counterparty: Markel/Essentia (91.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 55. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $11.31 (+2.9%), stop $10.22 (−7.5%), A.R:R 0.3:1. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HGTY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $11.31 (+2.9% upside). Target $11.31 (+2.9%), stop $10.22 (−7.5%), A.R:R 0.3:1. Stop-loss: $10.22.

What are the risks of investing in HGTY?

Concentration risk — Counterparty: Markel/Essentia (91.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak overall score: 4.8/10.

Is HGTY overvalued or undervalued?

Hagerty, Inc. trades at a P/E of 45.8 (forward 19.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about HGTY?

14 analysts cover HGTY with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $13.

What does Hagerty, Inc. do?Hagerty is the leading collector car and enthusiast vehicle insurer operating as an MGA (with owned reinsurer Hagerty...

Hagerty is the leading collector car and enthusiast vehicle insurer operating as an MGA (with owned reinsurer Hagerty Re) and marketplace (Broad Arrow auctions, digital platform). Insurance segment represented 92% of 2025 revenue; commission revenue from the Markel Alliance Agreement (Essentia carrier) represented 91% of total commission revenue. Hagerty Re assumed 80% quota share of Essentia risk as of Dec 31, 2025, increasing to 100% in 2026.

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