Hagerty, Inc. (HGTY) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the HGTY stock price target?

Take-profit $11.56 (+13.4% upside). Target $11.56 (+13.4%), stop $9.73 (−4.7%), A.R:R 1.9:1.

Q: What are the risks of investing in HGTY?

Earnings in 5 days (event risk); Negative momentum; Momentum score 1.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum; EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d.

Q: Is HGTY overvalued or undervalued?

Hagerty, Inc. trades at a P/E of 27.2 (forward 17.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Overall verdict: Hold.

Q: What do analysts say about HGTY?

14 analysts cover HGTY with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $13.

Falling Knife setup

HoldModerate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-04-30

Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty

Earnings in 5 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $10.19, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Earnings in 5 days (event risk); Negative momentum.

Hagerty is a collector car and enthusiast vehicle insurer with approximately 90% policy retention and two segments: Insurance (underwriting with approximately 7% U.S. collector car market share) and Marketplace (auctions and vehicle transactions). Revenue comes from premiums,... Read more

$10.19+13.4% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#14 of 29 Insurance - Property & Casualty

Stop $9.73Target $11.56(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.9:1

Analyst target$13.29+30.4%7 analysts

$11.56our TP

$10.19price

$13.29mean

$15

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $10.19, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Earnings in 5 days (event risk); Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 32, MACD bearish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards

Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)

Attractive valuation

Risks

Earnings in 5 days (event risk)

Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)27.2

P/E (Fwd)17.0

Mkt Cap$3.5B

EV/EBITDA4.0

Profit Mgn2.8%

ROE20.9%

Rev Growth16.5%

Beta0.93

DividendNone

Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C1.75bearish

IV149%elevated

Max Pain$8-26.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

LOWCustomerfive distribution partner marketing relationships17%
10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 17% of our gross written premium was attributable to five distribution partner marketing relationships'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

2026-04-15Item 5.02LOW
Michael Heaton resigned from Board effective April 13, 2026 (Markel board designee). Henrik Bjornstad designated as Markel new board designee. Resignation not related to any disagreement with the Company.
SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value7.715%1.16

Quality6.415%0.96

Growth6.615%0.99

Momentum1.910%0.19

Sentiment6.210%0.62

Insider Activity5.010%0.50

Peer Rank2.910%0.29

Technical Setup7.75%0.39

Risk Profile4.95%0.25

Catalyst7.55%0.38

Overall (Σ contributions)5.71

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume

0.0

Obv

1.0

Ma Position

2.2

Macd

2.7

Rsi

3.5

Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.0%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank

0.9

Quality Rank

3.4

Growth Rank

7.2

GatesMomentum 1.9<4.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dA.R:R 1.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive

RSI

32 · Neutral

↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $10.03Resistance $11.42

Price Targets

$10

$12

A.Upside+13.4%

A.R:R1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum

! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d

Earnings

3/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-06 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is HGTY stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $10.19, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Earnings in 5 days (event risk); Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 32, MACD bearish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $11.56 (+13.4%), stop $9.73 (−4.7%), A.R:R 1.9:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HGTY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $11.56 (+13.4% upside). Target $11.56 (+13.4%), stop $9.73 (−4.7%), A.R:R 1.9:1. Stop-loss: $9.73.

What are the risks of investing in HGTY?

Earnings in 5 days (event risk); Negative momentum.

Is HGTY overvalued or undervalued?

Hagerty, Inc. trades at a P/E of 27.2 (forward 17.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about HGTY?

14 analysts cover HGTY with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $13.

What does Hagerty, Inc. do?Hagerty is a collector car and enthusiast vehicle insurer with approximately 90% policy retention and two segments:...