Hagerty produces free cash flow well in excess of reported earnings and delivered three consecutive beats before a significant miss in its most recent quarter, but revenue contraction of 5% year-over-year, extreme dependence on a single counterparty for over 90% of business, and thin near-term upside leave the setup cautious despite an attractive PEG ratio.
Thesis pillars
- Beat Streak Disrupted By Miss→Stable
- Extreme Counterparty Concentration→Stable
- Strong Free Cash Flow Conversion→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Hagerty, Inc. (HGTY) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty
Sell if holding. At $11.76, A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Counterparty: Markel Alliance Agreement (91.0%); Concentration risk — Product: Insurance segment (92.0%).
Hagerty, Inc. underwrites collector car and enthusiast vehicle insurance as a managing general agent, reinsuring a growing share of risk through Hagerty Re, its Bermuda captive reinsurer that contributed 50% of total revenue in 2025. Distribution runs through direct channels and... Read more
Sell if holding. At $11.76, A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Counterparty: Markel Alliance Agreement (91.0%); Concentration risk — Product: Insurance segment (92.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 74. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 34d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About Hagerty, Inc.
About Hagerty, Inc.
Hagerty's Insurance segment generated 92% of total revenue in 2025, down from 97% in 2023, as the Marketplace segment expanded to 8% of total revenue. At December 31, 2025, the company covered 2.8 million collector cars and enthusiast vehicles—approximately 7% of the estimated U.S. market of 36 million vehicles—in a segment with an estimated $15 billion of annual written premium. Commission revenue under the Markel Alliance Agreement totaled $436.8 million in 2025, representing 91% of total commission revenue.
Hagerty operates as an MGA, underwriting specialty insurance for collector and enthusiast vehicles on behalf of Essentia Insurance Company, a Markel subsidiary. Hagerty Re, a Bermuda-based Class 3A reinsurer regulated by the Bermuda Monetary Authority, assumed 80% of Essentia-issued risks at December 31, 2025, and increased its quota share to 100% under the Markel Fronting Arrangement effective January 1, 2026, paying Markel a 2% fronting fee in exchange. Hagerty Re achieved an average loss ratio of 42% over the three years through 2025, compared with an auto insurance industry average of approximately 74%. Distribution channels include direct sales (44% of U.S. auto written premium in 2025) and an agent channel (56%) running through partnerships with 9 of the top 10 auto insurers by 2024 direct premiums written plus over 54,000 independent agents. In Canada, Aviva Canada Inc. serves as the fronting carrier under an exclusive agreement expiring in 2030. The Marketplace segment, operated through Broad Arrow live auctions and brokered private sales, represented 8% of total revenue in 2025.
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Counterparty concentration is the most significant structural dependency: the Markel Alliance Agreement represented 91-95% of total commission revenue across the three years through 2025. In April 2026, Markel's board designee Michael R. Heaton resigned from Hagerty's Board and was replaced by Henrik W. Bjørnstad per the Investor Rights Agreement, underscoring the ongoing governance linkage between the two companies. The relationship was substantially modified on December 31, 2025, with the Markel Fronting Arrangement taking effect January 1, 2026—a transition the 10-K notes will significantly change the accounting recognition of commission revenue and ceding commission expense beginning in the first quarter of 2026.
See also: Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty
From Hagerty, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-30Recent Developments — Hagerty, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Hagerty (HGTY) Projected to Post Quarterly Earnings on Wednesday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Hagerty, Inc. (NYSE:HGTY) Short Interest Up 62.2% in April - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS Hagerty Board Shift May Influence Valuation And Growth Priorities - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Hagerty Executive Offloads 5,531 Shares, Earning $61,000 - bitget.com — bitget.com negative
- NEWS Hagerty Executive Offloads 5,531 Shares, Earning $61,000 - Bitget — Bitget negative
Generated 2026-06-30T02:18:55Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHcounterpartyMarkel Alliance Agreement91%10-K Item 1: 'commission revenue associated with the Markel Alliance Agreement ... representing 91%, 93%, and 95%, respectively, of total commission revenue'
- HIGHProductInsurance segment92%10-K Item 1: 'Insurance segment revenue represented 92% ... of our total revenue'
- LOWCustomertop-5 distribution partners17%10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 17% of our gross written premium was attributable to five distribution partner marketing relationships'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-15Item 5.02LOWOn April 13, 2026, Michael R. Heaton (Markel Group's Board designee) resigned from Hagerty's Board effective immediately. No disagreement with Company operations cited. Pursuant to the Investor Rights Agreement, Markel designated Henrik W. Bjørnstad as its replacement Board designee.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Revenue shrinking — -5.0% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $11.76, A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Counterparty: Markel Alliance Agreement (91.0%); Concentration risk — Product: Insurance segment (92.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 74. Prior stop was $10.94. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $11.57 (-1.6% upside). Prior stop was $10.94. Stop-loss: $10.94.
Concentration risk — Counterparty: Markel Alliance Agreement (91.0%); Concentration risk — Product: Insurance segment (92.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Hagerty, Inc. trades at a P/E of 49.0 (forward 20.6). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
14 analysts cover HGTY with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $13.
What does Hagerty, Inc. do?Hagerty, Inc. underwrites collector car and enthusiast vehicle insurance as a managing general agent, reinsuring a...
Hagerty, Inc. underwrites collector car and enthusiast vehicle insurance as a managing general agent, reinsuring a growing share of risk through Hagerty Re, its Bermuda captive reinsurer that contributed 50% of total revenue in 2025. Distribution runs through direct channels and partnerships with 9 of the top 10 auto insurers, supplemented by a vehicle marketplace and Broad Arrow auction division. Insurance policy retention of nearly 90% and a 9-year average policy life anchor the recurring revenue model.