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GPRKGeopark LtdBuy Wait6.4·$11.11
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Geopark screens as attractively valued on a forward basis, but the engine flags multiple concerning factors - a possible commodity-cycle earnings peak, a price target already reached, failed momentum and asymmetry gates, elevated leverage, and net insider selling - consistent with its recommendation to consider reducing the position rather than adding to it.

Thesis pillars

  • Commodity Cycle Peak EarningsStable
  • Elevated Leverage PenaltyStable
  • Limited Upside Target ReachedStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Geopark Ltd (GPRK) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Inst Constrain edge

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

Wait for pullback to $10.49. Weak momentum; also insider activity concern — blocks BUY_NOW at $11.11. Engine's entry $10.49 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0.

GeoPark Limited operates as an oil and natural gas exploration and production company in Chile, Colombia, Brazil, Argentina, Ecuador, and other Latin American countries. It engages in the exploration, development, drilling, and production of oil and natural gas reserves. The... Read more

$11.11-17.0% A.UpsideScore 6.4/10#22 of 49 Oil & Gas E&P
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield13.04%
IncomeYield0.85%(5y avg 4.56%)Payout16.14%sustainable
Entry $10.49(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $9.45Target $12.87(resistance)A.R:R -1.2:1
Analyst target$10.85-2.3%4 analysts
$12.87our TP
$11.11price
$10.85mean
$10
$13

Wait for pullback to $10.49. Weak momentum; also insider activity concern — blocks BUY_NOW at $11.11. Engine's entry $10.49 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0. Chart setup: RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Fundamentals strong but target reached (-17.0% upside). Wait for pullback. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 42d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-23
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Nov 4, 202642d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)7.6
P/E (Fwd)6.1
Mkt Cap$707M
EV/EBITDA3.5
Profit Mgn16.0%
ROE28.6%
Rev Growth19.6%
Beta0.39
Dividend0.85%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV64%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -1.2=NEGATIVEMomentum 4.7<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)INSIDER 0.16%=MODERATEMomentum 4.7>=4.5No SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 42d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
41 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $9.54Resistance $13.13

Price Targets

$9
$10
$13
A.Upside-17.0%
A.R:R-1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.6%
Max %1.2%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-17.0% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-04 (42d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GPRK stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $10.49. Weak momentum; also insider activity concern — blocks BUY_NOW at $11.11. Engine's entry $10.49 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0. Chart setup: RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Fundamentals strong but target reached (-17.0% upside). Wait for pullback. Target $12.87 (+15.8%), stop $9.45 (−17.6%), A.R:R -1.2:1. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GPRK stock price target?

Take-profit target: $12.87 (-17.0% upside). Target $12.87 (+15.8%), stop $9.45 (−17.6%), A.R:R -1.2:1. Stop-loss: $9.45.

What are the risks of investing in GPRK?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0.

Is GPRK overvalued or undervalued?

Geopark Ltd trades at a P/E of 7.6 (forward 6.1). TrendMatrix value score: 8.4/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about GPRK?

11 analysts cover GPRK with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $11.

What does Geopark Ltd do?GeoPark Limited operates as an oil and natural gas exploration and production company in Chile, Colombia, Brazil,...

GeoPark Limited operates as an oil and natural gas exploration and production company in Chile, Colombia, Brazil, Argentina, Ecuador, and other Latin American countries. It engages in the exploration, development, drilling, and production of oil and natural gas reserves. The company was formerly known as GeoPark Holdings Limited and changed its name to GeoPark Limited in May 2009. GeoPark Limited was founded in 2002 and is based in Bogotá, Colombia.

Related stocks: SD (SandRidge Energy, Inc.) · DMLP (Dorchester Minerals, L.P.) · MGY (Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation) · REPX (Riley Exploration Permian, Inc.) · KRP (Kimbell Royalty Partners)
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