With only 2.6% headroom to the analyst price target, an unfavorable reward-to-risk ratio of 0.37, quality below the minimum threshold, and a dividend payout ratio of 401% that substantially exceeds reported earnings, the setup tilts firmly toward caution despite an otherwise reasonable earnings beat record.
Thesis pillars
- Quality Deficit Fcf Conversion→Stable
- Dividend Sustainability Risk↑Improving
- Earnings Beat Consistency↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Graphic Packaging Holding Compa (GPK) Stock Analysis
Catalyst-Driven edge
Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $8.73: Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.50; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.
The Company is a leading producer of consumer goods packaging made from renewable or recycled materials. The Company designs and manufactures sustainable packaging solutions including cartons, multipack cartons, trays, carriers, paperboard canisters, as well as cups and bowls... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $8.73: Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.50; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 18d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-16Recent Developments — Graphic Packaging Holding Compa
Material events (past 30 days)
- 8K Sep 28, 2026 MEDIUM Item 5.02: Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On September 28, 2026, Aditya J.
Latest news
- NEWS RBC Capital Maintains Sector Perform on Graphic Packaging Holding, Lowers Price Target to $9 — benzinga Oct 13, 2026 negative
- NEWS Truist Securities Maintains Hold on Graphic Packaging Holding, Lowers Price Target to $9 — benzinga Oct 12, 2026 negative
- NEWS UBS Maintains Neutral on Graphic Packaging Holding, Lowers Price Target to $9.5 — benzinga Oct 5, 2026 neutral
- NEWS RBC Capital Maintains Sector Perform on Graphic Packaging Holding, Lowers Price Target to $10 — benzinga Sep 30, 2026 negative
- NEWS This Editas Medicine Analyst Turns Bullish; Here Are Top 4 Upgrades For Wednesday — benzinga Sep 23, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-10-16T11:37:13Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-09-28Item 5.02MEDIUMDeparture of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On September 28, 2026, Aditya J.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $8.73: Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.50; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $8.13. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $9.53 (+9.2% upside). Prior stop was $8.13. Stop-loss: $8.13.
Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0).
Graphic Packaging Holding Compa trades at a P/E of 12.7 (forward 8.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
20 analysts cover GPK with a consensus score of 2.6/5. Average price target: $11.
What does Graphic Packaging Holding Compa do?The Company is a leading producer of consumer goods packaging made from renewable or recycled materials. The Company...
The Company is a leading producer of consumer goods packaging made from renewable or recycled materials. The Company designs and manufactures sustainable packaging solutions including cartons, multipack cartons, trays, carriers, paperboard canisters, as well as cups and bowls made primarily from recycled paperboard, unbleached paperboard and bleached paperboard.