Graphic Packaging Holding Compa (GPK) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the GPK stock price target?

Take-profit $9.82 (+4.3% upside). Prior stop was $8.88.

Q: Is GPK overvalued or undervalued?

Graphic Packaging Holding Compa trades at a P/E of 6.5 (forward 8.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about GPK?

16 analysts cover GPK with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $11.

Recovery setup

SellModerate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-04-30

Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers

Earnings in 5 days (2026-05-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $9.40: Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.

The Company is a leading producer of consumer goods packaging made from renewable or recycled materials. The Company designs and manufactures sustainable packaging solutions including cartons, multipack cartons, trays, carriers, paperboard canisters, as well as cups and bowls... Read more

$9.40+4.3% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#12 of 16 Packaging & Containers

Stop $8.88Target $9.82(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.6:1

Analyst target$11.29+20.1%9 analysts

$9.82our TP

$9.40price

$11.29mean

$18

Passes 4/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards

No bull case signals

Risks

Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)6.5

P/E (Fwd)8.2

Mkt Cap$2.8B

EV/EBITDA6.1

Profit Mgn5.2%

ROE14.0%

Rev Growth0.4%

Beta0.70

Dividend4.58%

Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral

IV73%elevated

Max Pain$3-73.4% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

2026-03-11Item 5.02MEDIUM
Effective March 8, 2026, the Board of Directors of Graphic Packaging Holding Company (the "Company") appointed Mr. Jeffrey M. Stafeil to the Board of Directors. Mr. Stafeil will serve as one of the Class I Directors, whose terms expire in 2026.
SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value8.115%1.21

Quality3.015%0.45

Growth1.315%0.20

Momentum4.510%0.45

Sentiment6.810%0.68

Insider Activity6.510%0.65

Peer Rank5.510%0.55

Technical Setup5.05%0.25

Risk Profile4.25%0.21

Catalyst4.25%0.21

Overall (Σ contributions)4.86

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth

0.0

Revenue Growth

2.6

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin

0.0

Fcf Quality

0.0

Net Margin

2.6

Operating Margin

2.7

Roa

3.1

Piotroski F

4.4

Roe

4.7

Current Ratio

4.9

Moat

5.0

Earnings quality RED FLAG: -45% FCF/NINo competitive moat

GatesA.R:R 0.6 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dMomentum 4.5<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.5>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive

RSI

45 · Neutral

↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $9.15Resistance $10.04

Price Targets

$10

A.Upside+4.5%

A.R:R0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0)

! Reward/Risk 0.6:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

0/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-05 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is GPK stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $9.40: Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 45. Prior stop was $8.88. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GPK stock price target?

Take-profit target: $9.82 (+4.3% upside). Prior stop was $8.88. Stop-loss: $8.88.

What are the risks of investing in GPK?

Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0).

Is GPK overvalued or undervalued?

Graphic Packaging Holding Compa trades at a P/E of 6.5 (forward 8.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GPK?

16 analysts cover GPK with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $11.

What does Graphic Packaging Holding Compa do?The Company is a leading producer of consumer goods packaging made from renewable or recycled materials. The Company...