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Graphic Packaging Holding Compa (GPK) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $9.54: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

The Company is a leading producer of consumer goods packaging made from renewable or recycled materials. The Company designs and manufactures sustainable packaging solutions including cartons, multipack cartons, trays, carriers, paperboard canisters, as well as cups and bowls... Read more

$9.54+7.5% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#11 of 16 Packaging & Containers
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield6.64%
IncomeYield4.61%(5y avg 1.76%)Payout47.83%sustainable
Stop $8.89Target $10.26(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.7:1
Analyst target$11.79+23.6%9 analysts
$10.26our TP
$9.54price
$11.79mean
$8
$18

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $9.54: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 69d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Graphic Packaging Holding Compa

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.4
P/E (Fwd)8.1
Mkt Cap$2.8B
EV/EBITDA6.8
Profit Mgn3.2%
ROE8.6%
Rev Growth1.7%
Beta0.62
Dividend4.61%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.91neutral
IV63%elevated
Max Pain$25+162.1% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-11Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Effective March 8, 2026, the Board of Directors of Graphic Packaging Holding Company (the "Company") appointed Mr. Jeffrey M. Stafeil to the Board of Directors. Mr. Stafeil will serve as one of the Class I Directors, whose terms expire in 2026.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.6
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Macd
2.7
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -10.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
1.6
Operating Margin
1.7
Roa
2.5
Roe
2.9
Moat
3.8
Current Ratio
5.2
Fcf Quality
5.2
Piotroski F
6.7
Earnings quality warning: 68% FCF/NINo competitive moat
GatesMomentum 2.0<4.5A.R:R 0.7 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 69d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
49 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $9.17Resistance $11.38

Price Targets

$9
$10
A.Upside+7.5%
A.R:R0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 2.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.7:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (69d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GPK stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $9.54: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $8.89. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GPK stock price target?

Take-profit target: $10.26 (+7.5% upside). Prior stop was $8.89. Stop-loss: $8.89.

What are the risks of investing in GPK?

Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0).

Is GPK overvalued or undervalued?

Graphic Packaging Holding Compa trades at a P/E of 10.4 (forward 8.1). TrendMatrix value score: 8.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GPK?

19 analysts cover GPK with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $12.

What does Graphic Packaging Holding Compa do?The Company is a leading producer of consumer goods packaging made from renewable or recycled materials. The Company...

The Company is a leading producer of consumer goods packaging made from renewable or recycled materials. The Company designs and manufactures sustainable packaging solutions including cartons, multipack cartons, trays, carriers, paperboard canisters, as well as cups and bowls made primarily from recycled paperboard, unbleached paperboard and bleached paperboard.

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