With only 2.6% headroom to the analyst price target, an unfavorable reward-to-risk ratio of 0.37, quality below the minimum threshold, and a dividend payout ratio of 401% that substantially exceeds reported earnings, the setup tilts firmly toward caution despite an otherwise reasonable earnings beat record.
Thesis pillars
- Quality Deficit Fcf Conversion↑Improving
- Dividend Sustainability Risk↑Improving
- Earnings Beat Consistency↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 2, 2026· older than 90 days
Graphic Packaging Holding Compa (GPK) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $11.75: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 10%; Below-average business quality.
The Company is a leading producer of consumer goods packaging made from renewable or recycled materials. The Company designs and manufactures sustainable packaging solutions including cartons, multipack cartons, trays, carriers, paperboard canisters, as well as cups and bowls... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $11.75: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 10%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 81. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.70, news boost analyst cluster(4), earnings proximity 95d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated Nov 4, 2026Recent Developments — Graphic Packaging Holding Compa
Latest news
- NEWS Analysts Update Price Targets and Ratings for Graphic Packaging Holding Company — fiscal.ai Nov 4, 2026 neutral
- NEWS UBS Maintains Neutral on Graphic Packaging Holding, Raises Price Target to $11.5 — benzinga Nov 4, 2026 positive
- NEWS JP Morgan Maintains Overweight on Graphic Packaging Holding, Raises Price Target to $12 — benzinga Nov 4, 2026 positive
- NEWS RBC Capital Maintains Sector Perform on Graphic Packaging Holding, Raises Price Target to $12 — benzinga Nov 4, 2026 positive
- NEWS Truist Securities Reiterates Hold on Graphic Packaging Holding, Raises Price Target to $10 — benzinga Nov 4, 2026 positive
Latest item Nov 4, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:49:09Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-09-28Item 5.02MEDIUMDeparture of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On September 28, 2026, Aditya J.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $11.75: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 10%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 81. Prior stop was $10.93. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $9.53 reached (−18.9% from $11.75); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $10.93. Stop-loss: $10.93.
Target reached (-18.9% upside); Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-8.8% YoY), Negative free cash flow.
Graphic Packaging Holding Compa trades at a P/E of 47.0 (forward 12.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
16 analysts rate GPK, with a consensus score of 3.3/5. 10 analysts publish price targets averaging $11.
What does Graphic Packaging Holding Compa do?The Company is a leading producer of consumer goods packaging made from renewable or recycled materials. The Company...
The Company is a leading producer of consumer goods packaging made from renewable or recycled materials. The Company designs and manufactures sustainable packaging solutions including cartons, multipack cartons, trays, carriers, paperboard canisters, as well as cups and bowls made primarily from recycled paperboard, unbleached paperboard and bleached paperboard.