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Group 1 Automotive, Inc. (GPI) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto & Truck Dealerships

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $317.18: Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10 and A.R:R 2.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Elevated put/call ratio: 76.00; Below-average business quality.

Group 1 Automotive operates 145 US dealerships (17 states) and 109 UK dealerships selling/leasing new and used vehicles plus parts, service, and F&I products. Texas accounted for 31.6% of US new vehicle unit sales in 2025 and the UK segment contributed 27.6% of total new vehicle... Read more

$317.18+21.6% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#9 of 16 Auto & Truck Dealerships
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield7.41%
IncomeYield0.69%(5y avg 0.63%)Payout7.79%sustainable
Stop $301.03Target $385.65(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.1:1
Analyst target$443.27+39.8%11 analysts
$385.65our TP
$317.18price
$443.27mean
$500

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $317.18: Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10 and A.R:R 2.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Elevated put/call ratio: 76.00; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 39, MACD bearish. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.50, earnings proximity 65d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Group 1 Automotive, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.1
P/E (Fwd)6.7
Mkt Cap$3.8B
EV/EBITDA8.6
Profit Mgn1.5%
ROE11.2%
Rev Growth-1.8%
Beta0.87
Dividend0.69%
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C76.00bearish
IV44%normal
Max Pain$240-24.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicTexas32%
    10-K Item 1: 'Texas| | 31.6 | %'
  • MEDIUMGeographicUnited Kingdom28%
    10-K Item 1: 'United Kingdom| | 27.6 | %'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-03Item 5.02LOW
    CEO Daryl Kenningham entered into Second Amendment to Incentive Agreement restructuring severance benefits payable upon qualifying termination events. Compensation arrangement change only; no departure announced.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
3.1
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.7
Operating Margin
1.8
Moat
3.1
Roe
3.7
Current Ratio
3.8
Roa
4.0
Piotroski F
4.4
Fcf Quality
6.3
No competitive moat

Revenue shrinking — -1.8% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
2.0
Earnings Growth
4.4
Declining revenue: -2%
GatesMomentum 1.7<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.50EARNINGS PROXIMITY 65d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
39 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $310.34Resistance $373.56

Price Targets

$301
$386
A.Upside+21.6%
A.R:R2.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 1.7/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (65d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GPI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $317.18: Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10 and A.R:R 2.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Elevated put/call ratio: 76.00; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 39, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $301.03. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GPI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $385.65 (+21.6% upside). Prior stop was $301.03. Stop-loss: $301.03.

What are the risks of investing in GPI?

Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0).

Is GPI overvalued or undervalued?

Group 1 Automotive, Inc. trades at a P/E of 12.1 (forward 6.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GPI?

16 analysts cover GPI with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $443.

What does Group 1 Automotive, Inc. do?Group 1 Automotive operates 145 US dealerships (17 states) and 109 UK dealerships selling/leasing new and used vehicles...

Group 1 Automotive operates 145 US dealerships (17 states) and 109 UK dealerships selling/leasing new and used vehicles plus parts, service, and F&I products. Texas accounted for 31.6% of US new vehicle unit sales in 2025 and the UK segment contributed 27.6% of total new vehicle units; as of Dec 31, 2025, the network included 32 collision centers.

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