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Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Basic Materials · Steel

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $227.95 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (0.4% away).

Steel Dynamics, Inc. is a leading industrial metals solutions company, with facilities located throughout the United States and Mexico. The company operates a circular manufacturing model, producing high-quality, lower-carbon-emission products with recycled scrap as the primary... Read more

$227.95-1.3% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#3 of 10 Steel
Stop $213.70Target $225.18(resistance)A.R:R -0.9:1
Analyst target$225.88-0.9%11 analysts
$225.18our TP
$227.95price
$225.88mean
$143
$255

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $227.95 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (0.4% away). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 82d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (0.4% away)
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)24.0
P/E (Fwd)13.3
Mkt Cap$32.4B
EV/EBITDA15.5
Profit Mgn7.2%
ROE15.2%
Rev Growth19.1%
Beta1.40
Dividend0.90%
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C1.58bearish
IV54%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-27Item 5.02MEDIUM
    [99.1](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1022671/000110465926035891/tm2610089d1_ex99-1.htm) | [A press release dated March 2 [... truncated]
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesA.R:R -0.9=NEGATIVEMomentum 4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.8>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 82d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
85 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $174.22Resistance $229.78

Price Targets

$214
$225
A.Upside-1.2%
A.R:R-0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-13.8% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-21 (82d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is STLD stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $227.95 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (0.4% away). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $213.70. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the STLD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $225.18 (-1.3% upside). Prior stop was $213.70. Stop-loss: $213.70.

What are the risks of investing in STLD?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.4% away); Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is STLD overvalued or undervalued?

Steel Dynamics, Inc. trades at a P/E of 24.0 (forward 13.3). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about STLD?

20 analysts cover STLD with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $226.

What does Steel Dynamics, Inc. do?Steel Dynamics, Inc. is a leading industrial metals solutions company, with facilities located throughout the United...

Steel Dynamics, Inc. is a leading industrial metals solutions company, with facilities located throughout the United States and Mexico. The company operates a circular manufacturing model, producing high-quality, lower-carbon-emission products with recycled scrap as the primary input.

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