Skip to main content

Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Basic Materials · Steel

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $223.42 — A.R:R is negative (-1.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7).

Steel Dynamics, Inc. is a leading industrial metals solutions company, with facilities located throughout the United States and Mexico. The company operates a circular manufacturing model, producing high-quality, lower-carbon-emission products with recycled scrap as the primary... Read more

$223.42+6.9% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#1 of 10 Steel
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield-0.10%
IncomeYield0.95%(5y avg 1.41%)Payout21.76%sustainable
Stop $212.46Target $238.85(resistance)A.R:R -1.2:1
Analyst target$238.82+6.9%11 analysts
$238.85our TP
$223.42price
$238.82mean
$210
$265

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $223.42 — A.R:R is negative (-1.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 62d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Steel Dynamics, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7)
Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)23.9
P/E (Fwd)13.3
Mkt Cap$32.2B
EV/EBITDA15.5
Profit Mgn7.2%
ROE15.2%
Rev Growth19.1%
Beta1.49
Dividend0.95%
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.48bearish
IV45%normal

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-27Item 5.02MEDIUM
    [99.1](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1022671/000110465926035891/tm2610089d1_ex99-1.htm) | [A press release dated March 2 [... truncated]
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
4.5
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Erm
1.5
Earnings History
3.3
Surprise Avg
3.6
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.2
Estimates down -6.3% (30d)Earnings concerns: 2B/2MDividend: 95.0%
GatesMomentum 3.4<4.5A.R:R -1.2=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 62d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
49 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $219.03Resistance $243.72

Price Targets

$212
$239
A.Upside+6.9%
A.R:R-1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-7.0% upside)
! Momentum score 3.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-21 (62d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is STLD stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $223.42 — A.R:R is negative (-1.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $212.46. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the STLD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $238.85 (+6.9% upside). Prior stop was $212.46. Stop-loss: $212.46.

What are the risks of investing in STLD?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7); Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1.

Is STLD overvalued or undervalued?

Steel Dynamics, Inc. trades at a P/E of 23.9 (forward 13.3). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about STLD?

20 analysts cover STLD with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $239.

What does Steel Dynamics, Inc. do?Steel Dynamics, Inc. is a leading industrial metals solutions company, with facilities located throughout the United...

Steel Dynamics, Inc. is a leading industrial metals solutions company, with facilities located throughout the United States and Mexico. The company operates a circular manufacturing model, producing high-quality, lower-carbon-emission products with recycled scrap as the primary input.

Related stocks: NUE (Nucor Corporation) · TX (Ternium S.A. Ternium S.A.) · RS (Reliance, Inc.) · MT (Arcelor Mittal NY Registry Shar) · PKX (POSCO Holdings Inc.)