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FUNSix Flags Entertainment CorporaSell4.7·$8.94
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

A leisure business trading at over 50 times forward earnings carries below-minimum business quality, a 2-and-2 earnings record over the past year, and 21% short interest — with only 2.6% headroom to the near-term price ceiling and a risk/reward of 0.37-to-1, the setup offers no margin of safety despite a constructive near-term price chart.

Thesis pillars

  • Below Minimum Business Quality→Stable
  • Erratic Earnings Track Record↑Improving
  • Heavy Short Interest And Elevated Iv→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Six Flags Entertainment Corpora (FUN) Stock Analysis

Oversold Bounce setup · Inst Constrain edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueGrowthShortModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Leisure

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $8.94: Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10 and A.R:R 6.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 27%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

The Company is North America's largest regional amusement park operator with 26 amusement parks, 15 separately gated water parks and nine resort properties. Of the 41 amusement and water parks, 37 are located in the United States, two are located in Mexico and two are located in... Read more

$8.94+98.4% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10#13 of 14 Leisure
QualityF-score5 / 9FCF yield52.85%
Stop $8.60Target $17.73(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 6.6:1
Analyst target$20.38+128.0%13 analysts
$17.73our TP
$8.94price
$20.38mean
$28

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $8.94: Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10 and A.R:R 6.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 27%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 26, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 20d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 5, 202620d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—
P/E (Fwd)336.1
Mkt Cap$915M
EV/EBITDA7.8
Profit Mgn-57.3%
ROE-143.2%
Rev Growth-7.0%
Beta0.45
DividendNone
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C0.67bullish
IV156%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.0
Growth Rank
0.0
Value Rank
9.2

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Roe
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Roa
1.6
Current Ratio
1.7
Moat
3.2
Gross Margin
3.6
Operating Margin
5.2
Piotroski F
5.6
No competitive moatQuality concerns

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Vol Acceleration
2.6
Rsi
3.0
Macd
3.1
Volume
10.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 26, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.8%/30d — confirmed downtrendVolume surge (2.4x avg) on selloff
GatesMomentum 3.4<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 6.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 20d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEAROversold BounceSuitability: Speculative
RSI
26 · Oversold
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $8.87Resistance $12.94

Price Targets

$9
$18
A.Upside+98.4%
A.R:R6.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0)
! momentum at 3.4 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-05 (20d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FUN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $8.94: Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10 and A.R:R 6.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 27%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 26, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Prior stop was $8.60. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FUN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $17.73 (+98.4% upside). Prior stop was $8.60. Stop-loss: $8.60.

What are the risks of investing in FUN?

Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0).

Is FUN overvalued or undervalued?

Six Flags Entertainment Corpora trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 336.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about FUN?

21 analysts cover FUN with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $20.

What does Six Flags Entertainment Corpora do?The Company is North America's largest regional amusement park operator with 26 amusement parks, 15 separately gated...

The Company is North America's largest regional amusement park operator with 26 amusement parks, 15 separately gated water parks and nine resort properties. Of the 41 amusement and water parks, 37 are located in the United States, two are located in Mexico and two are located in Canada. The parks are family-oriented, with recreational facilities for people of all ages, and provide clean and attractive environments with exciting rides and immersive entertainment.

Related stocks: YETI (YETI Holdings, Inc.) · CALY (Callaway Golf Company) · LTH (Life Time Group Holdings, Inc.) · PTON (Peloton Interactive, Inc.) · PLNT (Planet Fitness, Inc.)
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