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FirstService Corporation (FSV) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Real Estate · Real Estate Services

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $129.70 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9); Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2.

FirstService Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides residential property management and other essential property services to residential and commercial customers in the United States and Canada. It operates through two segments: FirstService Residential and... Read more

$129.70+27.4% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#11 of 16 Real Estate Services
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield5.79%
IncomeYield0.94%(5y avg 0.57%)Payout31.83%
Stop $120.64Target $165.30(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.6:1
Analyst target$190.00+46.5%8 analysts
$165.30our TP
$129.70price
$190.00mean
$215

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $129.70 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9); Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 27, MACD bearish. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 66d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — FirstService Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Analyst upside: 27%
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9)
Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)36.6
P/E (Fwd)19.2
Mkt Cap$6.0B
EV/EBITDA14.2
Profit Mgn2.9%
ROE11.2%
Rev Growth5.3%
Beta0.91
Dividend0.94%
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
1.7
Rsi
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 27, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.8
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).
GatesMomentum 1.3<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 3.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 66d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
27 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $124.37Resistance $154.00

Price Targets

$121
$165
A.Upside+27.4%
A.R:R3.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (66d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FSV stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $129.70 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9); Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 27, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $120.64. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.

What is the FSV stock price target?

Take-profit target: $165.30 (+27.4% upside). Prior stop was $120.64. Stop-loss: $120.64.

What are the risks of investing in FSV?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9); Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2; Weak growth.

Is FSV overvalued or undervalued?

FirstService Corporation trades at a P/E of 36.6 (forward 19.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about FSV?

12 analysts cover FSV with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $190.

What does FirstService Corporation do?FirstService Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides residential property management and other essential...

FirstService Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides residential property management and other essential property services to residential and commercial customers in the United States and Canada. It operates through two segments: FirstService Residential and FirstService Brands. The FirstService Residential segment operates as a full-service property manager and provides a range of ancillary services, including on-site staffing for building engineering and maintenance, full-service amenity management, security, concierge and front desk personnel; proprietary banking and insurance products; and energy conservation and management solutions. This segment serves condominiums, co-operatives, homeowner associations, master-planned communities, active adult and lifestyle communities, and other residential developments governed by common interest or multi-unit residential community associations. Its FirstService Brands segment offers property services to residential and commercial customers in North America through company-owned operations and franchise systems under the First Onsite Property Restoration, Paul Davis Restoration, Roofing Corp of America, Century Fire Protection, California Closets, CertaPro Painters, Floor Coverings International, and Pillar to Post Home Inspectors brands. This segment also provides light restoration services, including full-service water, fire and mold cleanup, construction rebuild, and restoration services; painting services; custom-designed and installed closet and home storage solutions; home inspection services; and floor covering design and installation services. FirstService Corporation was incorporated in 1988 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

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