Farmland Partners shows strong margins and a recent earnings beat streak, but a confirmed death cross, declining revenue, and rich valuation create a fragile setup with thin downside protection.
Thesis pillars
- Strong Margins Support Quality→Stable
- Death Cross Momentum Breakdown→Stable
- Earnings Beat Streak Execution→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Farmland Partners Inc. (FPI) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Real Estate · REIT - Specialty
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $10.79 — A.R:R is negative (-2.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2.
Farmland Partners Inc. is an internally managed REIT that owns and leases approximately 71,600 acres of U.S. farmland across eleven states, with roughly 60% of portfolio value in primary row crops such as corn, soybeans, wheat, rice, and cotton and 40% in specialty crops such as... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $10.79 — A.R:R is negative (-2.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.2/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 40d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About Farmland Partners Inc.
About Farmland Partners Inc.
Approximately 71,600 acres across eleven states -- including Arkansas, California, Colorado, Illinois, and Nebraska -- make up Farmland Partners' owned farmland portfolio, split roughly 60% primary row crops such as corn, soybeans, wheat, rice, and cotton and 40% specialty crops including almonds, pistachios, and citrus. Net income fell 47.6% to $32.2 million in 2025 from $61.5 million in 2024, even as Adjusted Funds from Operations rose 27% to $17.9 million.
Farmland Partners earns its principal revenue from rent paid by farm-operator tenants under one-to-three-year leases, many of which are fixed-rate and require at least 50% -- sometimes all -- of annual rent in advance of spring planting to limit tenant credit-risk exposure; a smaller share of leases carry variable rents tied to a tenant's farming revenue. The company also participates in the FPI Loan Program, lending to landowners and tenant and non-tenant farmers secured by farmland, crops, and equipment. During 2025 the company disposed of 60 properties across the Corn Belt, Delta and South, High Plains, and West Coast regions for $90.2 million, acquired six Corn Belt properties for $7.3 million, sold its Murray Wise Associates auction and brokerage subsidiary for $5.3 million, and reduced total indebtedness to $161.6 million from $204.6 million a year earlier.
Show full overview
The portfolio's roughly 60/40 split between primary row crops and higher-value specialty crops carries asymmetric risk: any decline in corn, soybean, wheat, rice, or cotton prices could disproportionately hit results given that concentration, while the 40% allocated to permanent specialty crops such as almonds and citrus is costlier to convert to other uses if demand shifts, since trees and vines take years to replant and mature. Separately, state laws in several core markets -- including Missouri, where the company owned 815 acres in 2025 -- restrict corporate ownership of farmland, and its Missouri holdings may face a legal challenge that could force a sale on unfavorable terms.
See also: Real Estate · REIT - Specialty
From Farmland Partners Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-25Recent Developments — Farmland Partners Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Farmland Partners (NYSE:FPI) Updates FY 2026 Earnings Guidance - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS Farmland Partners (NYSE:FPI) Announces Quarterly Earnings Results, Beats Estimates By $0.01 EPS - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS Farmland Partners (NYSE:FPI) Announces Quarterly Earnings Results, Beats Estimates By $0.01 EPS - marketbeat.com — marketbeat.com positive
- NEWS Farmland Partners: Q2 Earnings Snapshot - kare11.com — kare11.com neutral
- NEWS Farmland Partners: Q2 Earnings Snapshot - WKYC — WKYC neutral
Generated 2026-09-25T20:52:02Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -5.5% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $10.79 — A.R:R is negative (-2.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $10.36. Score 4.2/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $12.41 (-17.3% upside). Prior stop was $10.36. Stop-loss: $10.36.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2; Consecutive earnings misses (2).
Farmland Partners Inc. trades at a P/E of 21.0 (forward 44.6). TrendMatrix value score: 2.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
10 analysts cover FPI with a consensus score of 2.4/5. Average price target: $11.
What does Farmland Partners Inc. do?Farmland Partners Inc. is an internally managed REIT that owns and leases approximately 71,600 acres of U.S. farmland...
Farmland Partners Inc. is an internally managed REIT that owns and leases approximately 71,600 acres of U.S. farmland across eleven states, with roughly 60% of portfolio value in primary row crops such as corn, soybeans, wheat, rice, and cotton and 40% in specialty crops such as almonds, pistachios, and citrus. The company earns rental income from farm-operator tenants under one-to-three-year leases with fixed and variable rent components, and also offers a loan program financing landowners and tenant and non-tenant farmers; net income was $32.2 million in 2025 on total indebtedness of $161.6