Value
3.4/10data confidence 60%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 5.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| p ocf | 5.2 |
- ▸P/OCF: 21.3x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)
FPI · Why this verdict
Why Farmland Partners (FPI) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score4.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Price to operating cash flow is 24.4x, flagged as an expensive valuation that scores 3.0 out of 10 on value. Valuation breakdown | Valuation compresses toward 15x cash flow through price stability and growing cash flow. | ↑Improving |
| CounterFarmland carries hard-asset value that cash-flow multiples understate, and scarce assets can justify a premium to FFO. | ||
Revenue is declining, down 6%, and quarterly revenue of $9.4M is below the $10.3M from a year earlier. Growth breakdown | Revenue returns to positive year-over-year growth within 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA reported December quarter of $20.7M shows large one-time items distort comparisons, so the decline may be partly timing. | ||
The last two quarters missed estimates ($0.01 versus $0.03 and $0.02 versus $0.04), after two beats. Last 4 quarters | EPS beats consensus in the next report and in at least two of four quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterPer-share amounts are a few cents, so small dollar differences produce large percentage misses and the average surprise is actually +74%. | ||
At $10.25 the stock trades 12.9% above the $8.92 analyst target, leaving no analyst-supported upside. Upside pct | Analyst targets rise above the current price as asset values are marked up. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAnalyst targets for thinly covered REITs often lag land value changes, and the 200-day average is still rising. | ||
Margins are strong at 50% and the dividend yield is 3.5%, giving income support despite weak growth. Quality breakdown | The dividend is maintained and free cash flow stays above 65% of net income. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterOnly 65% of net income converts to free cash flow, and dividend safety scores 6.5 out of 10 with falling revenue. | ||
Price to operating cash flow is 24.4x, flagged as an expensive valuation that scores 3.0 out of 10 on value.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Valuation compresses toward 15x cash flow through price stability and growing cash flow.
CounterFarmland carries hard-asset value that cash-flow multiples understate, and scarce assets can justify a premium to FFO.
Revenue is declining, down 6%, and quarterly revenue of $9.4M is below the $10.3M from a year earlier.
↑ImprovingGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue returns to positive year-over-year growth within 12 months.
CounterA reported December quarter of $20.7M shows large one-time items distort comparisons, so the decline may be partly timing.
The last two quarters missed estimates ($0.01 versus $0.03 and $0.02 versus $0.04), after two beats.
↓DeterioratingLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- EPS beats consensus in the next report and in at least two of four quarters.
CounterPer-share amounts are a few cents, so small dollar differences produce large percentage misses and the average surprise is actually +74%.
At $10.25 the stock trades 12.9% above the $8.92 analyst target, leaving no analyst-supported upside.
↑ImprovingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analyst targets rise above the current price as asset values are marked up.
CounterAnalyst targets for thinly covered REITs often lag land value changes, and the 200-day average is still rising.
Margins are strong at 50% and the dividend yield is 3.5%, giving income support despite weak growth.
↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The dividend is maintained and free cash flow stays above 65% of net income.
CounterOnly 65% of net income converts to free cash flow, and dividend safety scores 6.5 out of 10 with falling revenue.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.7 |
| ROA | 1.1 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 9.9 |
| Current ratio | 2.9 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 20%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 160% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Rule of 40: 18 (fail)
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -14%
Momentum
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 1.2 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 6.7 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 29, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.6%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.7 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
6.1/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.2 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.4 |
| quality rank | 3.2 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.4 |
| support resistance | 8.0 |
| 52w position | 3.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.2 |
| days to cover | 5.2 |
| volatility | 1.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 5.5 |
| beta | 8.2 |
| debt equity | 7.6 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 3.00
Catalyst
2.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Market cap $385M below $400M minimum. Not in investable universe.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:MARKET_CAPPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.6>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:110d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.2<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
0.19
Upside
+1.8%
Downside
9.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupOversold Bounce — Oversold RSI 29, near Bollinger lower, volume surge
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The HOLD_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's 0.2<1.5@spot outcome against Technical at 6.7 and asymmetric R:R of 0.19.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 6.7, Insider at 6.1, and Sentiment at 5.9; the weakest are Catalyst at 2.8, Peer rank at 3.3, and Value at 3.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.19 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Expensive Cash Flow Valuation
Trip ifPrice to operating cash flow falls below 15x from the current 24.4x.
- P2Declining Revenue
Trip ifYear-over-year revenue growth exceeds 5% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Recent Earnings Misses
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifAnalyst target rises above $11.28, at least 10% above the current $10.25 price.
- P5High Margins And Dividend
Trip ifFree cash flow falls below 50% of net income from the current 65%.