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UNITUniti Group Inc.Sell5.3·$9.45-1.66%
SellHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

Uniti Group ranks at the top of its specialty REIT peers on value, quality, and growth relative metrics and has strong price momentum of 7.3, but trades with negative asymmetry of -1.95 at a price that already exceeds resistance, combined with extreme leverage of 34.8 debt-to-equity that amplifies any downside scenario.

Thesis pillars

  • Top Decile Peer Rank All CategoriesDeteriorating
  • Extreme Leverage Debt Equity 34xStable
  • Price At Resistance Negative AsymmetryStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Uniti Group Inc. (UNIT) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 3/5GrowthHigh Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Specialty

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $9.45 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 68.7): -1.5.

Uniti Group formed in August 2025 through the merger of Old Uniti and Windstream, creating a digital infrastructure company with approximately 240,000 fiber route miles across 47 states and $2.2 billion in 2025 revenues. The Kinetic segment ($928.4 million in revenue) provides... Read more

$9.45-6.0% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#11 of 16 REIT - Specialty
QualityF-score5 / 9FCF yield-11.15%
Stop $8.87Target $11.11(resistance)A.R:R -0.5:1
Analyst target$10.31+9.1%9 analysts
$11.11our TP
$9.45price
$10.31mean
$6
$16

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $9.45 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 68.7): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 87d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-08
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Nov 4, 202687d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Positive insider activity
Margin of safety: 83%
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 68.7): -1.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)2.5
P/E (Fwd)-13.4
Mkt Cap$2.3B
EV/EBITDA9.0
Profit Mgn30.4%
ROE
Rev Growth202.5%
Beta1.40
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.39bullish
IV93%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicMidwest and Southeast
    10-K Item 1: 'approximately 1.9 million fiber-equipped households predominately situated in the Midwest and Southeast United States'
  • MEDIUMCustomergovernment programs
    10-K Item 1A: 'We are the recipient of a meaningful amount of end user revenue and government funding under various government programs'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-22Item 5.02LOW
    Annual meeting May 21, 2026: stockholders approved an increase in shares available under the Uniti Group Inc. 2025 Equity Incentive Plan (Long-Term Incentive Plan). Routine compensatory arrangement amendment; no officer departure or appointment.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.5
Obv
1.0
Macd
2.2
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
8.0
Oversold in uptrend (RSI 29)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5A.R:R -0.5=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 87d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
29 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $8.98Resistance $11.34

Price Targets

$9
$11
A.Upside-6.0%
A.R:R-0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.0% upside)
! momentum at 3.1 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-04 (87d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is UNIT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $9.45 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 68.7): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $8.87. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.

What is the UNIT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $11.11 (-6.0% upside). Prior stop was $8.87. Stop-loss: $8.87.

What are the risks of investing in UNIT?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 68.7): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is UNIT overvalued or undervalued?

Uniti Group Inc. trades at a P/E of 2.5 (forward -13.4). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about UNIT?

14 analysts cover UNIT with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $10.

What does Uniti Group Inc. do?Uniti Group formed in August 2025 through the merger of Old Uniti and Windstream, creating a digital infrastructure...

Uniti Group formed in August 2025 through the merger of Old Uniti and Windstream, creating a digital infrastructure company with approximately 240,000 fiber route miles across 47 states and $2.2 billion in 2025 revenues. The Kinetic segment ($928.4 million in revenue) provides residential and business broadband in 1,400 markets across 18 states; Uniti Solutions ($332.3 million) offers managed enterprise networking; and Fiber Infrastructure handles wholesale and enterprise connectivity.

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