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F5, Inc. (FFIV) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Technology · Software - Infrastructure

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $321.83 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: single contract manufacturer.

F5 is a multicloud application delivery and security provider offering BIG-IP, NGINX, and Distributed Cloud Services platforms to large enterprises, public sector, and service providers. Revenue comes from software licenses, subscriptions, SaaS, hardware, and professional... Read more

$321.83+1.0% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#58 of 80 Software - Infrastructure
Stop $300.89Target $325.32(resistance)A.R:R -0.8:1
Analyst target$337.40+4.8%10 analysts
$325.32our TP
$321.83price
$337.40mean
$250
$375

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $321.83 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: single contract manufacturer. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.35, earnings proximity 90d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: single contract manufacturer
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 7.6): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)27.0
P/E (Fwd)18.8
Mkt Cap$18.6B
EV/EBITDA18.4
Profit Mgn22.5%
ROE20.8%
Rev Growth7.3%
Beta0.93
DividendNone
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.81neutral
IV48%normal
Max Pain$200-37.9% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomertwo worldwide distributors33%
    10-K Item 1A: 'two worldwide distributors of our products accounted for 33.3% of our total net revenue for fiscal year 2025'
  • HIGHSuppliersingle contract manufacturer
    10-K Item 1A: 'we currently subcontract manufacturing of our products to a single contract manufacturer'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-13Item 5.02LOW
    Shareholders approved the F5 2026 Incentive Award Plan (3,500,000 new shares) and Board adopted the Non-Employee Director Compensation Program at the March 12, 2026 Annual Meeting.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.7
Support Resistance
2.1
52w Position
8.6

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
2.7
Value Rank
4.1
Quality Rank
7.8
Best-in-class margins
GatesA.R:R -0.8=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.35EARNINGS PROXIMITY 90d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
67 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $284.00Resistance $331.96

Price Targets

$301
$325
A.Upside+1.1%
A.R:R-0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-8.9% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (90d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FFIV stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $321.83 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: single contract manufacturer. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $300.89. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.

What is the FFIV stock price target?

Take-profit target: $325.32 (+1.0% upside). Prior stop was $300.89. Stop-loss: $300.89.

What are the risks of investing in FFIV?

Concentration risk — Supplier: single contract manufacturer; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 7.6): -1.5.

Is FFIV overvalued or undervalued?

F5, Inc. trades at a P/E of 27.0 (forward 18.8). TrendMatrix value score: 4.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about FFIV?

20 analysts cover FFIV with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $337.

What does F5, Inc. do?F5 is a multicloud application delivery and security provider offering BIG-IP, NGINX, and Distributed Cloud Services...

F5 is a multicloud application delivery and security provider offering BIG-IP, NGINX, and Distributed Cloud Services platforms to large enterprises, public sector, and service providers. Revenue comes from software licenses, subscriptions, SaaS, hardware, and professional services. In October 2025, the company disclosed a Cyber Incident with long-term persistent threat actor access.

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