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Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

Sell if holding. At $205.52, A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 12.0× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.06× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Concentration risk — Geographic: Permian Basin.

Diamondback Energy, Inc., an independent oil and natural gas company, acquires, develops, explores, and exploits unconventional, onshore oil and natural gas reserves in the Permian Basin in West Texas, the United States. The company primarily focuses on the development of the... Read more

$205.52+0.7% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10#34 of 37 Oil & Gas E&P
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield2.44%
IncomeYield2.16%(5y avg 4.05%)Payout413.27%at-risk
Stop $192.56Target $207.03(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.1:1
Analyst target$230.03+11.9%29 analysts
$207.03our TP
$205.52price
$230.03mean
$195
$277

Sell if holding. At $205.52, A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 12.0× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.06× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Concentration risk — Geographic: Permian Basin. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 56, MACD bullish. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and materials cycle peak fwd=12.0x,ratio=0.06x. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Diamondback Energy, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Energy): +1.2
Positive news sentiment (+1.00)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 12.0× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.06× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.
Concentration risk — Geographic: Permian Basin
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)207.7
P/E (Fwd)12.0
Mkt Cap$57.3B
EV/EBITDA7.6
Profit Mgn2.0%
ROE0.5%
Rev Growth4.2%
Beta0.44
Dividend2.16%
Rating analysts38

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicPermian Basin
    10-K Item 1A: 'We are vulnerable to risks associated with our primary operations concentrated in a single geographic area ... in the Permian Basin where we operate.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.7
Quality Rank
2.1
Growth Rank
3.5

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
3.6
GatesA.R:R 0.1 < 1.5@spotMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK fwd=12.0x,ratio=0.06xMomentum 6.9>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
56 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $182.09Resistance $213.34

Price Targets

$193
$207
A.Upside+0.7%
A.R:R0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (0.7% upside)
! Reward/Risk 0.1:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum
! MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:fwd=12.0x,ratio=0.06x

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-03 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FANG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $205.52, A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 12.0× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.06× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Concentration risk — Geographic: Permian Basin. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 56, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $192.56. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FANG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $207.03 (+0.7% upside). Prior stop was $192.56. Stop-loss: $192.56.

What are the risks of investing in FANG?

Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 12.0× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.06× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Concentration risk — Geographic: Permian Basin; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is FANG overvalued or undervalued?

Diamondback Energy, Inc. trades at a P/E of 207.7 (forward 12.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about FANG?

38 analysts cover FANG with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $230.

What does Diamondback Energy, Inc. do?Diamondback Energy, Inc., an independent oil and natural gas company, acquires, develops, explores, and exploits...

Diamondback Energy, Inc., an independent oil and natural gas company, acquires, develops, explores, and exploits unconventional, onshore oil and natural gas reserves in the Permian Basin in West Texas, the United States. The company primarily focuses on the development of the Spraberry and Wolfcamp formations of the Midland Basin; and the Wolfcamp and Bone Spring formations of the Delaware Basin, both of which are part of the Permian Basin in West Texas and New Mexico. Diamondback Energy, Inc. was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Midland, Texas.

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