Skip to main content

Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

Earnings in 4 days (2026-05-04). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $204.22: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

Diamondback Energy, Inc., an independent oil and natural gas company, acquires, develops, explores, and exploits unconventional, onshore oil and natural gas reserves in the Permian Basin in West Texas, the United States. The company primarily focuses on the development of the... Read more

$204.22+0.3% A.UpsideScore 4.2/10#36 of 37 Oil & Gas E&P
Stop $192.80Target $204.88(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 0.0:1
Analyst target$222.70+9.0%30 analysts
$204.88our TP
$204.22price
$222.70mean
$190
$266

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $204.22: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 4d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Permian Basin
Target reached (0.3% upside)
Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)35.8
P/E (Fwd)12.0
Mkt Cap$57.8B
EV/EBITDA7.7
Profit Mgn11.6%
ROE3.7%
Rev Growth-9.4%
Beta0.49
Dividend2.05%
Rating analysts40

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.61bullish
IV55%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicPermian Basin
    10-K Item 1A: 'We are vulnerable to risks associated with our primary operations concentrated in a single geographic area ... in the Permian Basin where we operate'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -9.4% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.2
Declining revenue: -9%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
1.3
Quality Rank
2.4
Growth Rank
3.1

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Operating Margin
0.0
Roa
0.9
Roe
1.2
Current Ratio
1.7
Fcf Quality
2.4
Rule Of 40
3.0
Moat
5.0
Net Margin
5.8
Piotroski F
6.7
Gross Margin
10.0
Earnings quality RED FLAG: 30% FCF/NINo competitive moatRule of 40: -6 (fail)
GatesA.R:R 0.0 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 4d<=7dMomentum 6.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
71 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $170.55Resistance $206.18

Price Targets

$193
$205
A.Upside+0.3%
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (0.3% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0)
! Reward/Risk 0.0:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-04 (4d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FANG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $204.22: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $192.80. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FANG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $204.88 (+0.3% upside). Prior stop was $192.80. Stop-loss: $192.80.

What are the risks of investing in FANG?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Permian Basin; Target reached (0.3% upside); Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0).

Is FANG overvalued or undervalued?

Diamondback Energy, Inc. trades at a P/E of 35.8 (forward 12.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about FANG?

40 analysts cover FANG with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $223.

What does Diamondback Energy, Inc. do?Diamondback Energy, Inc., an independent oil and natural gas company, acquires, develops, explores, and exploits...

Diamondback Energy, Inc., an independent oil and natural gas company, acquires, develops, explores, and exploits unconventional, onshore oil and natural gas reserves in the Permian Basin in West Texas, the United States. The company primarily focuses on the development of the Spraberry and Wolfcamp formations of the Midland Basin; and the Wolfcamp and Bone Spring formations of the Delaware Basin, both of which are part of the Permian Basin in West Texas and New Mexico. Diamondback Energy, Inc. was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Midland, Texas.

Related stocks: EXE (Expand Energy Corporation) · EQT (EQT Corporation) · CTRA (Coterra Energy Inc.) · OXY (Occidental Petroleum Corporatio) · RRC (Range Resources Corporation)