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Eagle Materials Inc (EXP) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Building Materials

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $209.91 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5.

Eagle Materials manufactures Portland Cement and Gypsum Wallboard at more than 70 facilities across 21 US states, serving infrastructure, residential, and commercial construction markets. Revenue is earned from direct sales of these commodity construction products; demand is... Read more

$209.91-1.1% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10#10 of 12 Building Materials
Stop $198.15Target $207.90(resistance)A.R:R -0.6:1
Analyst target$222.90+6.2%10 analysts
$207.90our TP
$209.91price
$222.90mean
$193
$246

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $209.91 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 66. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 18d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5
Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.5
P/E (Fwd)16.1
Mkt Cap$6.4B
EV/EBITDA10.7
Profit Mgn18.7%
ROE28.8%
Rev Growth-0.4%
Beta1.39
Dividend0.49%
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C1.53bearish
IV51%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -0.4% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
0.1
Revenue Growth
2.4
Declining revenue: -0%

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.6
Bollinger
1.9
Gap
5.0
52w Position
7.3

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.2
Erm
3.5
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend
10.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MDividend: 49.0%
GatesMomentum 4.2<4.5A.R:R -0.6=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 18d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
66 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $182.88Resistance $212.14

Price Targets

$198
$208
A.Upside-1.0%
A.R:R-0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-7.8% upside)
! Momentum score 4.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-19 (18d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EXP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $209.91 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 66. Prior stop was $198.15. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the EXP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $207.90 (-1.1% upside). Prior stop was $198.15. Stop-loss: $198.15.

What are the risks of investing in EXP?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5; Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is EXP overvalued or undervalued?

Eagle Materials Inc trades at a P/E of 15.5 (forward 16.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about EXP?

20 analysts cover EXP with a consensus score of 2.6/5. Average price target: $223.

What does Eagle Materials Inc do?Eagle Materials manufactures Portland Cement and Gypsum Wallboard at more than 70 facilities across 21 US states,...

Eagle Materials manufactures Portland Cement and Gypsum Wallboard at more than 70 facilities across 21 US states, serving infrastructure, residential, and commercial construction markets. Revenue is earned from direct sales of these commodity construction products; demand is seasonal and cyclical, tied to US construction activity.

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