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Eagle Materials Inc (EXP) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Building Materials

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $202.53 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: ten states (65.0%).

Eagle Materials manufactures Portland Cement and Gypsum Wallboard plus concrete and aggregates through 70+ facilities in 21 states, primarily in the U.S. heartland. Record revenue of $2.3 billion in fiscal 2025; primary end markets are public infrastructure (cement/concrete) and... Read more

$202.53+10.1% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#11 of 12 Building Materials
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield2.53%
IncomeYield0.51%(5y avg 0.42%)Payout7.56%sustainable
Stop $187.11Target $216.49(resistance)A.R:R -0.2:1
Analyst target$222.67+9.9%9 analysts
$216.49our TP
$202.53price
$222.67mean
$193
$246

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $202.53 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: ten states (65.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Eagle Materials Inc

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: ten states (65.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.9
P/E (Fwd)15.4
Mkt Cap$6.2B
EV/EBITDA10.3
Profit Mgn18.7%
ROE28.8%
Rev Growth-0.4%
Beta1.38
Dividend0.51%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C9.11bearish
IV52%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicten states65%
    10-K Item 1: 'approximately 65% of our total revenue ... is generated in ten states: Colorado, Illinois, Kansas, Kentucky, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, and Texas.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Revenue shrinking — -0.4% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
0.1
Revenue Growth
2.4
Declining revenue: -0%
GatesA.R:R -0.2=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.2>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
41 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $192.90Resistance $220.91

Price Targets

$187
$216
A.Upside+6.9%
A.R:R-0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-1.5% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-19 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EXP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $202.53 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: ten states (65.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $187.11. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the EXP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $216.49 (+10.1% upside). Prior stop was $187.11. Stop-loss: $187.11.

What are the risks of investing in EXP?

Concentration risk — Geographic: ten states (65.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1.

Is EXP overvalued or undervalued?

Eagle Materials Inc trades at a P/E of 14.9 (forward 15.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about EXP?

19 analysts cover EXP with a consensus score of 2.6/5. Average price target: $223.

What does Eagle Materials Inc do?Eagle Materials manufactures Portland Cement and Gypsum Wallboard plus concrete and aggregates through 70+ facilities...

Eagle Materials manufactures Portland Cement and Gypsum Wallboard plus concrete and aggregates through 70+ facilities in 21 states, primarily in the U.S. heartland. Record revenue of $2.3 billion in fiscal 2025; primary end markets are public infrastructure (cement/concrete) and residential construction (wallboard). About 65% of total revenue concentrated in ten states.

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