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National Grid Transco, PLC Nati (NGG) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Electric

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $88.90 — A.R:R is negative (-2.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5.

National Grid plc engages in the transmission and distribution of electricity and gas. It operates through UK Electricity Transmission, UK Electricity Distribution, New England, New York, National Grid Ventures, and Other segments. The UK Electricity Transmission segment... Read more

$88.90+0.4% A.UpsideScore 4.4/10#36 of 38 Utilities - Regulated Electric
Stop $85.73Target $89.35(resistance)A.R:R -2.3:1
Analyst target$92.05+3.5%4 analysts
$89.35our TP
$88.90price
$92.05mean
$70
$102

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $88.90 — A.R:R is negative (-2.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 45, MACD bullish. Score 4.4/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5
Earnings estimates trending DOWN

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)21.3
P/E (Fwd)14.1
Mkt Cap$85.5B
EV/EBITDA65.2
Profit Mgn16.4%
ROE7.9%
Rev Growth-11.3%
Beta0.64
Dividend3.63%
Rating analysts24

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.31bullish
IV44%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -11.3% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Earnings Growth
0.0
Declining revenue: -11%

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Value Rank
2.0
Quality Rank
4.2
GatesA.R:R -2.3=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.0>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
45 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $84.27Resistance $91.17

Price Targets

$86
$89
A.Upside+0.5%
A.R:R-2.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-12.0% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

We could not retrieve earnings history for NGG.
The company may be recently listed, pre-revenue, or its beat/miss record wasn't available from our source this run. Earnings signals feed the Growth and Catalyst score dimensions — absence here doesn't affect other dimensions.

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NGG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $88.90 — A.R:R is negative (-2.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 45, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $85.73. Score 4.4/10, high confidence.

What is the NGG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $89.35 (+0.4% upside). Prior stop was $85.73. Stop-loss: $85.73.

What are the risks of investing in NGG?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5; Earnings estimates trending DOWN.

Is NGG overvalued or undervalued?

National Grid Transco, PLC Nati trades at a P/E of 21.3 (forward 14.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NGG?

24 analysts cover NGG with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $92.

What does National Grid Transco, PLC Nati do?National Grid plc engages in the transmission and distribution of electricity and gas. It operates through UK...

National Grid plc engages in the transmission and distribution of electricity and gas. It operates through UK Electricity Transmission, UK Electricity Distribution, New England, New York, National Grid Ventures, and Other segments. The UK Electricity Transmission segment provides electricity transmission networks in England and Wales. The UK Electricity Distribution segment offers electricity distribution services in east and west Midlands, Southwest of England, and South Wales. The New England segment provides electricity and gas supply and distribution, and high-voltage electricity transmission services in New England. The New York segment offers electricity and gas distribution, and electricity transmission services in New York. The National Grid Ventures segment provides transmission services through electricity interconnectors and LNG importation at the Isle of Grain. The Other segment engages in the leasing and sale of commercial property, as well as insurance activities in the United Kingdom. The company was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

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