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EVCMEverCommerce Inc.Sell4.5·$10.19+0.79%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

The stock is in a confirmed technical downtrend with a death cross and all moving averages declining, while four consecutive quarterly earnings misses averaging -30.5% suggest the business is meaningfully underperforming expectations — a low forward multiple and strong cash generation create a latent value argument, but the weight of technical and fundamental evidence does not yet support new entry.

Thesis pillars

  • Valuation Discount Offset By Entry RiskImproving
  • Confirmed Technical DowntrendImproving
  • Persistent Earnings UnderperformanceDeteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

EverCommerce Inc. (EVCM) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5QualityModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $10.19: Risk below floor (3.0 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Elevated put/call ratio: 50.00; Negative price momentum.

EverCommerce provides integrated, vertically-tailored SaaS solutions to roughly 745,000 service SMBs across home services (EverPro), health services (EverHealth), and wellness (EverWell). Revenue from continuing operations reached $588.9 million in 2025, earned through recurring... Read more

$10.19-6.1% A.UpsideScore 4.5/10#122 of 124 Software - Application
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield5.70%
Stop $9.48Target $12.41(resistance)A.R:R -0.5:1
Analyst target$11.00+7.9%6 analysts
$12.41our TP
$10.19price
$11.00mean
$8
$13

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $10.19: Risk below floor (3.0 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Elevated put/call ratio: 50.00; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 29, MACD bearish. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/9 gates (no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 81d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-16
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 5, 202681d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-6.1% upside)
Risk below floor (3.0 < 3.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)67.9
P/E (Fwd)12.9
Mkt Cap$1.8B
EV/EBITDA19.2
Profit Mgn5.7%
ROE3.9%
Rev Growth2.7%
Beta0.88
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C50.00bearish

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWProductpayment-related transactions20%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Payment-related transactions comprised approximately 20% of our revenue in 2025'
  • MEDIUMcounterpartyWorldpay and PayPal
    10-K Item 1A: 'We have entered into agreements with certain payment processors, including Worldpay and PayPal, in order to enable our clients' processing of credit, debit and prepaid card transactions'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/4M

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.0
Value Rank
4.0
Quality Rank
4.4

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Ma Position
1.5
Rsi
3.0
Volume
3.2
Obv
10.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 29, below 200MA)Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
GatesMomentum 3.5<4.5A.R:R -0.5=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)INSIDER 0.20%=MODERATENo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 81d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
29 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $9.64Resistance $12.66

Price Targets

$9
$12
A.Upside-6.1%
A.R:R-0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.1% upside)
! Risk below floor (3.0 < 3.0)
! momentum at 3.5 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-05 (81d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EVCM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $10.19: Risk below floor (3.0 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Elevated put/call ratio: 50.00; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 29, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $9.48. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the EVCM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $12.41 (-6.1% upside). Prior stop was $9.48. Stop-loss: $9.48.

What are the risks of investing in EVCM?

Target reached (-6.1% upside); Risk below floor (3.0 < 3.0).

Is EVCM overvalued or undervalued?

EverCommerce Inc. trades at a P/E of 67.9 (forward 12.9). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about EVCM?

14 analysts cover EVCM with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $11.

What does EverCommerce Inc. do?EverCommerce provides integrated, vertically-tailored SaaS solutions to roughly 745,000 service SMBs across home...

EverCommerce provides integrated, vertically-tailored SaaS solutions to roughly 745,000 service SMBs across home services (EverPro), health services (EverHealth), and wellness (EverWell). Revenue from continuing operations reached $588.9 million in 2025, earned through recurring subscription fees and payment processing, growing at a 7.1% CAGR from 2022 to 2025.

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