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Establishment Labs Holdings Inc (ESTA) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Devices

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $66.11: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 20%; Below-average business quality.

Establishment Labs is a global medical device company selling Motiva silicone gel breast implants (registered in 100+ countries) for augmentation and reconstruction, with U.S. commercial launch beginning October 2024. Revenue is primarily from Motiva Implants sales via exclusive... Read more

$66.11+15.8% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#19 of 40 Medical Devices
Stop $61.48Target $76.56(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.1:1
Analyst target$88.00+33.1%9 analysts
$76.56our TP
$66.11price
$88.00mean
$100

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $66.11: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 20%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 61, MACD bullish. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.70, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source, third-party supplier for medical-grade long-term implantable silicone
Concentration risk — Product: Motiva Implants
Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)308.3
Mkt Cap$1.8B
EV/EBITDA-68.6
Profit Mgn-24.2%
ROE-133.3%
Rev Growth45.2%
Beta1.08
DividendNone
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C0.05bullish
IV89%elevated
Max Pain$23-66.0% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSuppliersingle-source, third-party supplier for medical-grade long-term implantable silicone
    10-K Item 1A: 'We rely on a single-source, third-party supplier for medical-grade long-term implantable silicone, which is the primary raw material used in our Motiva Implants'
  • HIGHProductMotiva Implants
    10-K Item 1A: 'our ability to achieve and maintain profitability depends on the commercial success of our Motiva Implants'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Risk profile below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Implied Vol
0.0
Debt Equity
0.0
Days To Cover
0.2
Volatility
0.2
Short Interest
1.5
Max Pain Risk
3.0
Beta
6.7
Put Call
10.0
High short interest justified: 20%High IV: 89%Above max pain $22Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.6
Value Rank
1.0
Growth Rank
9.8
Industry growth leader

Unprofitable operations — net margin -24.2%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Moat
5.0
Rule Of 40
5.5
Piotroski F
5.6
Gross Margin
9.9
Current Ratio
10.0
Cash-burning: FCF -20% of revenueNo competitive moat
GatesA.R:R 1.1 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dMomentum 5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.0>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.70SEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
61 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $56.96Resistance $68.65

Price Targets

$61
$77
A.Upside+15.8%
A.R:R1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0)
! Reward/Risk 1.1:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-06 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ESTA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $66.11: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 20%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 61, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $61.48. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ESTA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $76.56 (+15.8% upside). Prior stop was $61.48. Stop-loss: $61.48.

What are the risks of investing in ESTA?

Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source, third-party supplier for medical-grade long-term implantable silicone; Concentration risk — Product: Motiva Implants; Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0).

Is ESTA overvalued or undervalued?

Establishment Labs Holdings Inc trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 308.3). TrendMatrix value score: 5.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ESTA?

15 analysts cover ESTA with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $88.

What does Establishment Labs Holdings Inc do?Establishment Labs is a global medical device company selling Motiva silicone gel breast implants (registered in 100+...

Establishment Labs is a global medical device company selling Motiva silicone gel breast implants (registered in 100+ countries) for augmentation and reconstruction, with U.S. commercial launch beginning October 2024. Revenue is primarily from Motiva Implants sales via exclusive distributors and direct sales force; net loss was $124.5M in 2025.

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